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Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

thatjoescott.com

91–100 of 103 posts

Re: Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

#92
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being cold doesn't seem that big a problem. I think the bigger concern is what sudden climate shifts might do to agriculture. If some farmland becomes much less viable on a wide basis, that might be much harder to adjust to on the short term. I can't help but think of all the historical societies that collapsed due to even mild pressure on the food supply.

> I can't help but think of all the historical societies that collapsed due to even mild pressure on the food supply. They didn't have the logistical advantages we have today (storage and transport). Okay, when prawns fished from the coast of Mozambique are no longer viable some other spot will, necessarily, become viable. Historical societies did not have the technology to simply farm in another place when their cur…

> Historical societies did not have the technology to simply farm in another place when their current place become hostile to farming. We already do this.

Maybe not to the same extent, but empires in the past certainly had the ability to move food around.

In the meantime food production has become more specialized relying on fewer producers.

Re: Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

#93
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is one and only one solution: stop burning fossil fuels which dump CO₂ into the air.

You breathing CO2 out. Should we stop breathing? We dump CO2 in air to heat our living places to survive winter. Should we freeze to death? I prefer to plant trees. And stop cutting them down in cities because of "leaves clogging the drains”.

The CO2 for the power you use (directly and indirectly) is much, much more than what you breathe out. And heat pumps can supply heating without CO2 emissions. Planting trees is good but it's only a net carbon sink on an infeasibly large scale and only if you also cut down and bury the trees periodically.

Re: Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

#94
post #15
post #4

This scary, yet almost nothing on the news. We're living in a fake world and pretending everything is fine. Adam Curtis made a movie HyperNormalisation and we're living it also today. Adam Curtis: “HyperNormalisation” is a word that was coined by a brilliant Russian historian who was writing about what it was like to live in the last years of the Soviet Union. What he said, which I thought was absolutely fascinating,…

It isn't actually all that scary; humans cope pretty well over a wide variety of temperatures. If the change caught everyone by surprise it'd be a huge problem but it seems to be fairly well understood and there is lots of time to adjust. Worst case scenario seems to be that people will stop migrating to Europe.

Yes. And totally no.

Some humans will very likely survive. Millions, possibly hundreds of millions, will die.

Life as it has been known for hundreds of years will change dramatically.

An unwillingness or inability to conceive of this possible future as anything more than “it’ll be colder, but fine” would make it vastly worse for many people.

Re: Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

#95
post #49
post #4

This scary, yet almost nothing on the news. We're living in a fake world and pretending everything is fine. Adam Curtis made a movie HyperNormalisation and we're living it also today. Adam Curtis: “HyperNormalisation” is a word that was coined by a brilliant Russian historian who was writing about what it was like to live in the last years of the Soviet Union. What he said, which I thought was absolutely fascinating,…

Another take away from that documentary is not that politicians do not care, but that the world has become so increasingly complex, fast-moving and interconnected there is no simple or real solution to any of the problems people have. They just do not have the answers. Whenever a politician gets elected on the wish to fix housing, jobs, the pension system, the larger and larger divide between the ultra rich and the m…

Politicians seem to end up reacting to the polling/what the reactionary voters want, because they don't want to be kicked out of office. I don't know if it's just ego, or if it's a nobility of "We need to win, because if the other side wins, they'll destroy this country!"... this leftist still believes Obama and Biden wanted to keep/build a decent society, so do people like Bernie and AOC (let's not talk about Pelosi and her stock portfolio though), and that Trump is just about naked corruption with some populist policies thrown to the rabid supporters like meat...

Re: Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

#96
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But...that's just a complete non sequitur. The proposition wasn't " all the viable land/fishing spots will be destroyed". No one has been arguing that. It was "when we lose this viable fishing spot, another spot that was not viable will become viable ". And there is zero basis for that. So either you have massively failed to state your position clearly, or you are so blatantly moving the goalposts, the dragmarks can…

> So either you have massively failed to state your position clearly, or you are so blatantly moving the goalposts, the dragmarks can be seen from space. Which is it? Stop with the personal attacks - you are obviously emotional about this, and it's clear I am not. My position is, and always has been, that there is no evidence that modern societies are as dependent on living on, near or around their source of nutritio…

I was 100% clear what I was arguing against from the very start.

> some other spot will, necessarily, become viable.

You doubled down, changed the subject, and moved the goalposts.

If you had said what you claim to be your point 12 hours ago, rather than strawmanning my posts as claiming that all arable land would disappear at once, then perhaps we could have had a different conversation. (I'd still disagree, but at least it would've been different.)

....also, what the hell is so wrong with being emotional about the collapse of modern human civilization, caused by very preventable factors that we've known about and been screaming about for literally longer than my entire life?

Is acting like a Vulcan supposed to make you morally superior or something...?

Re: Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

#97
post #87
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We've gotten this far because we've had a rather stable climate for the past few thousand years. The current rate of the change is the problem. You must have missed it: https://xkcd.com/1732/

It's still ~1C over a human lifetime which gives you a fair bit of time to adapt. I mean I may fly to Bali next month due to climate but that's just London being crap in winter as usual.

This is like saying fish can survive around 21C so the lower temperature of 19.8C that is keeping it in a -4C freezer for 3.5 hours before searing it for 30 minutes at 200C is fine.

A 1C rise means hotter hots, colder colds, stronger storms and longer or more frequent droughts as well as the general climate of a region possibly changing.

Yes you can find crops that will grow in specific conditions, but you need to know those conditions and if you have a day that kills a crop that can mean you need to wait for the next season. That 1C rise corresponds with a lot more of these crop damaging events as well as changing the efficiency and possibly infrastructure needed in an area.

I'll also note that the last 1C rise is over a generation not a lifetime i.e. 25 years not 80.

Re: Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

#98
post #97
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's still ~1C over a human lifetime which gives you a fair bit of time to adapt. I mean I may fly to Bali next month due to climate but that's just London being crap in winter as usual.

This is like saying fish can survive around 21C so the lower temperature of 19.8C that is keeping it in a -4C freezer for 3.5 hours before searing it for 30 minutes at 200C is fine. A 1C rise means hotter hots, colder colds, stronger storms and longer or more frequent droughts as well as the general climate of a region possibly changing. Yes you can find crops that will grow in specific conditions, but you need to kn…

Brandolini's law at its finest. Don't waste your time, you're answering to a troll.

Re: Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

#99
post #93
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You breathing CO2 out. Should we stop breathing? We dump CO2 in air to heat our living places to survive winter. Should we freeze to death? I prefer to plant trees. And stop cutting them down in cities because of "leaves clogging the drains”.

The CO2 for the power you use (directly and indirectly) is much, much more than what you breathe out. And heat pumps can supply heating without CO2 emissions. Planting trees is good but it's only a net carbon sink on an infeasibly large scale and only if you also cut down and bury the trees periodically.

You do not know anything about my power use. Heat pump needs electric energy to work. Which is not cheap and also use CO2 to produce.

Re: Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

#100
post #99
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The CO2 for the power you use (directly and indirectly) is much, much more than what you breathe out. And heat pumps can supply heating without CO2 emissions. Planting trees is good but it's only a net carbon sink on an infeasibly large scale and only if you also cut down and bury the trees periodically.

You do not know anything about my power use. Heat pump needs electric energy to work. Which is not cheap and also use CO2 to produce.

I don't need to know anything specific about your life for that to be true, which is why "what about breathing" is so ridiculous. And heat pumps even powered by fossil fuels emit less CO2, let alone the many renewable options that reduce the CO2 released by orders of magnitude.
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