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Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#91

Post by mixedbit »

epolanski wrote: post #49
sammyjoe72 wrote: post #29

Elon promised self driving cars in 12 months back in 2017? He’s also promising Optimus robots doing surgery on humans in 3 years? Extrapolating…………… Optimus is going to kill some humans and it will all be worth it!

Elon is aware that Tesla insane market valuation would crash 10x if it stays a car company. There isn't enough money and most importantly margin in the car industry to warrant such a valuation, so he has to pivot away from cars into the next thing . Just to make an example of how risky it is to be a car company for Tesla. In 2025 Toyota has had: 3.5 times Tesla's revenue, 8 times the net income and twice the margin.…

And then, they will pivot away from humanoid robots. To justifying the valuation they have already pivoted from electric cars company to self-driving taxis company, without delivering self-driving taxis, they are now pivoting to robots, before delivering the robots they will pivot to the next shinny thing. Maybe Pivot is the real Tesla product that justifies the crazy valuation.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#92

Post by janc_ »

epolanski wrote: post #49
sammyjoe72 wrote: post #29

Elon promised self driving cars in 12 months back in 2017? He’s also promising Optimus robots doing surgery on humans in 3 years? Extrapolating…………… Optimus is going to kill some humans and it will all be worth it!

Elon is aware that Tesla insane market valuation would crash 10x if it stays a car company. There isn't enough money and most importantly margin in the car industry to warrant such a valuation, so he has to pivot away from cars into the next thing . Just to make an example of how risky it is to be a car company for Tesla. In 2025 Toyota has had: 3.5 times Tesla's revenue, 8 times the net income and twice the margin.…

Before people believe the Tesla robot hype they should probably consider that Toyota has been making cars AND robots for longer than Tesla exists.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#93

Post by bux93 »

gruez wrote: post #76
fabian2k wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's fair to put the burden of proof here on Tesla. They should convince people that their Robotaxis are safe. If they redact the details about all incidents so that you cannot figure out who's at fault, that's on Tesla alone.

>I think it's fair to put the burden of proof here on Tesla. That just sounds like a cope. The OP's claim is that the article rests on shaky evidence, and you haven't really refuted that. Instead, you just retreated from the bailey of "Tesla's Robotaxi data confirms crash rate 3x worse ..." to the motte of "the burden of proof here on Tesla". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motte-and-bailey_fallacy More broadly I think…

You're not replying to the author of the article.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#94

Post by thecupisblue »

epolanski wrote: post #49
sammyjoe72 wrote: post #29

Elon promised self driving cars in 12 months back in 2017? He’s also promising Optimus robots doing surgery on humans in 3 years? Extrapolating…………… Optimus is going to kill some humans and it will all be worth it!

Elon is aware that Tesla insane market valuation would crash 10x if it stays a car company. There isn't enough money and most importantly margin in the car industry to warrant such a valuation, so he has to pivot away from cars into the next thing . Just to make an example of how risky it is to be a car company for Tesla. In 2025 Toyota has had: 3.5 times Tesla's revenue, 8 times the net income and twice the margin.…

That is why all the crazy promises and moves, hyping X.ai, Robotaxis, Optimus, Data centers in space. If you are constantly promising the future and some radical moves, the optimistic investors believe him and he can keep increasing the "potential future valuation".

But when you look at it:

- X.ai is basically getting into the race by throwing money at the problem and using your name to get funding in a hyped industry.

- Do a buyout of your own company with it, get access to data that you restricted to everyone else.

- Merge it with SpaceX for "datacenters in space", do an IPO for a huge valuation

- Probably merge it with Tesla, overhype everything

- As the humanoid, AI and space industry grows, so will the valuation just because of the market growth, not necessarily because of great/revolutionary products

At that point, nobody can even consider what the valuation is, as it is a mishmash of promises, fudged numbers, real numbers, potential numbers, contracts, hype and everything else. It allows moving financials around and tuning things to get him his 1T package and hype things even more.

I mean congrats to Elon, just by overhyping his products he shifts the timeline narrative more towards techno-optimism and earns himself more money. The financial shenanigans to follow in the next few years will be an interesting period for future financial archeologists.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#95

Post by techblueberry »

gruez wrote: post #76
fabian2k wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's fair to put the burden of proof here on Tesla. They should convince people that their Robotaxis are safe. If they redact the details about all incidents so that you cannot figure out who's at fault, that's on Tesla alone.

>I think it's fair to put the burden of proof here on Tesla. That just sounds like a cope. The OP's claim is that the article rests on shaky evidence, and you haven't really refuted that. Instead, you just retreated from the bailey of "Tesla's Robotaxi data confirms crash rate 3x worse ..." to the motte of "the burden of proof here on Tesla". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motte-and-bailey_fallacy More broadly I think…

I don’t think it’s a motte and Bailey fallacy because the motte is not well established. Tesla clearly does not believe that the burden of proof is on them, and by extension regulators, legislators.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#97

Post by AlexandrB »

LunicLynx wrote: post #67
fabian2k wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's fair to put the burden of proof here on Tesla. They should convince people that their Robotaxis are safe. If they redact the details about all incidents so that you cannot figure out who's at fault, that's on Tesla alone.

While I think Tesla should be transparent, this article doesn't really make sure it is comparing apples to apples either. I think its weird to characterize it as legitimate and the say "Go Tesla convince me ohterwise" as if the same audience would ever be reached by Tesla or people would care to do their due diligence.

Tesla (Elon Musk really) has a long history of distorting the stats or outright lying about their self driving capabilities and safety. The fact that folks would be skeptical of any evidence Tesla provided in this case is a self-inflicted problem and well-deserved.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#98

Post by micromacrofoot »

UltraSane wrote: post #63
mcherm wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The real take away is that the Robotaxis don't really exist More accurately, the real takeaway is that Tesla's robo-taxis don't really exist.

Because it is fraud trying to inflate Tesla stock price.

What's even more unbelievable is that a significant number of people are still falling for it

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#99

Post by janc_ »

orwin wrote: post #27
rich_sasha wrote: post #17

As much as I'd love to pile in on Tesla, it's unclear to me the severity of the incidents (I know they are listed) and if human drivers would report such things. "Rear collision while backing" could mean they tapped a bollard. Doesn't sound like a crash. A human driver might never even report this. What does "Incident at 18 mph" even mean? By my own subjective count, only three descriptions sound unambiguously bad, a…

He compared to the estimated statistics for non-reported accident (typically your example, that involve only one vehicle and only result in scratched paint) to estimate the 3x. Else the title would have been 9x (which is in line with 10x a data analyst blogger wrote ~ 3month ago). > roundabouts in cities (in Europe anyway) tend to increase the number of crashes Not in France, according to data. It depends on the spee…

They reduce accidents in general, but bring us some “entertaining” new ones where a (usually) drunk driver crashes into the statue/fountain/whatever in the middle or uses the little “hill” in the middle as a jump ramp…

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#100

Post by giorgioz »

Yes on one side Tesla is not transparent but on the other side the author of the article is an hypocrite given they went with the click-bait title "Tesla’s own Robotaxi data confirms crash rate 3x worse than humans even with monitor" Tesla secrecy is likely due to avoid journalists taking any chance they can to sell more news by writing an autonomous vehicles horror story. Given the secrecy we don't know what happened, yet the journalist did choose to go with the worse scenario title.
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