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American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

kielinstitut.de

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Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#91
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is the case with any tax, it's mostly paid by the consumer Not true. Tax burdens can fall incredibly unequally depending on market dynamics.

Who else is paying the taxes if not the customer? Who else is paying anything if not the customer in the end?

Wikipedia article would be a good start: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_incidence

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#92

Isn't this literally economics 101? How did we ever even end up imagining that tariffs are somehow paid by the exporter??

I understood part of the point of the tariffs as encouraging on-shore production of some items by increasing the price of their imported counterparts.

Such protectionist practices were used by China to bootstrap their own automobile industry, before they became competitive in the global market. Of course, China had surplus capacity of untapped cheap labor, which America does not.

Barring an evolution in automated manufacturing, or an overhaul of regulatory policy, I'm pessimistic it's possible to accomplish the same in the US. But, in principle, tariffs have a valid place in supporting an emerging local industry.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#93

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

It isn't US specific and what goes into people's head is what propaganda wants it to be.

Economics tell people the clear impact, but it doesn't make the news. We get fed with whatever the political influencers decide to tell us. Did the brits expect the consequence of brexit? No but that's because they deemed whatever the news said to be unreliable on this topic. Which for once happened to be true.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#94
post #84

Isn't this literally economics 101? How did we ever even end up imagining that tariffs are somehow paid by the exporter??

It doesn’t help that the person who imposed these tariffs was indeed claiming the cost would be borne by foreign countries, and the political party in power is repeating the claim ad nauseam on every channel imaginable. It’s a misleading claim, but OTOH the point of making imports more expensive for Americans is to push them to prefer US made products, and if that happens and imports go down then at some level it’s t…

It won't cost other countries because what is not sold to the US is sold everywhere else.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#95
post #17

Americans will rightly be suspicious when a think tank in Germany writes about tariff relief that benefits them. Of course, we should all be critical always – that's the first word in the term "critical thinking".

I find this comment suspicious, and rightly so: We should be critical of it.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#97

What's the problem about it? Trump cuts one kinds of taxes and introduces others in place. I see it reasonable because it means going from taxing good things (people making money, people holding property) to taxing bad things (imports that drain cash from the country). Direct net result is perhaps zero, but indirect one is what it's for.

Imports are needed and important, not "bad". Most countries import goods. Why? Because not everyone produces everything. That is how society started and still works today.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#98
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember the justification for Obama Care was by calling it a 'type of tax'. Which actually was the reason to negate the rights argument at the time, they were using to cancel it. The government is allowed to create 'taxes', and since it was a 'type of tax', it is allowed.

I think the opposition wanted to toss the entire ACA system calling it a tax. However, SCOTUS took a more piecemeal approach than the opposition wished and removed the bit they felt was a tax and left the ACA unaffected generally.

What part of ACA did SCOTUS remove? In this ruling, it was only the Medicaid expansion that was struck down.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Federation_of_Indepen...

The 2017 TCJA removed the individual mandate. Presumably, that is what FrustratedMonky and kccqzy are referring to.

Obviously, the ACA made it so all health insurance premiums have a large "tax" component, due to the extremely narrow underwriting criteria health insurers are allowed to use. The individual mandate had previously applied a tax to all taxpayers, but after TCJA 2017, the tax is only paid by people with health insurance.

https://www.healthcare.gov/how-plans-set-your-premiums/

https://www.irs.gov/affordable-care-act/individuals-and-fami...

>Enacted in December 2017, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) reduced the shared responsibility payment to zero for tax year 2019 and all subsequent years.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#99
post #58

Isn't this literally economics 101? How did we ever even end up imagining that tariffs are somehow paid by the exporter??

There's been this phrase 'passing costs off to the consumer' that I've heard since I was a kid, used as some kind of indictment against companies raising prices when their costs go up. Even as a kid I was confused. Where else is the money going to come from?

This is why Econ 101 is important.

There are circumstances where much of the burden of increased production costs is borne by the producer. When demand is very elastic (consumers are price sensitive, or there are many good substitutes), and supply is inelastic (its hard to change the level of output), the suppliers will eat the cost.

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