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Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

theatlantic.com

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Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#91

Post by tpm »

Buttons840 wrote: post #65

This is a problem, a net negative and a sign of a weakening society. But, one silver lining, maybe, is gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe? It seems hard to be a climate change denier when you're about to gamble on it. Or maybe people will find a way to gamble while still living in completely different reality bubbles. Probably. If you thought your neighbor was politically extreme last elec…

> But, one silver lining, maybe, is gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe?

Long time ago I was working for a betting company and we had a product where virtual (horses, dogs, bikes, cars) were racing in a virtual environment. This was displayed on a TV in physical branches and on the website, along with completely transparent information that it is all random, source of randomness was even some government audited hardware. The customers could place bets on these virtual racers, identified by numbers. Essentially if there were 8 'dogs' in a race, there was a 1/8 chance your pick would win. And then a new set of random numbers would be generated and based on that a new 'race' video would play. The 'races' would go on every day, 4 in hour or something like that.

And the customers (in the live chat or sitting in the physical locations) were often debating the form of the individual 'dogs', how they would perform in the next race and so on. Yes, really.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#92

Post by giantg2 »

tbrownaw wrote: post #79
keiferski wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it’s an argument against removing rules / making changes without deeply understanding why those rules exist in the first place, and what might happen when they are removed. It’s perfectly fine to be for progressive social changes, as long as those criteria are met. I’d call that a pragmatic approach, not a conservative one.

> I’d call that a pragmatic approach, not a conservative one. The other meaning of "conservative", the one that's opposite "reckless". It should in theory be possible to take a conservative approach to being progressive.

"It should in theory be possible to take a conservative approach to being progressive"

That's likely how most of the middle see themselves (if not in those words) - open to new changes but only if they're fully understood and not drastic.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#93

Post by dang »

aisenik wrote: post #84
dang wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please don't make posts consisting of quotes and nothing else. HN is a supposed to be a site for curious conversation. It's not hard to see how posts like this interrupt that and bog it down - imagine someone at a dinner party* reading entire paragraphs like this out loud. (* I don't know why I said "dinner party", since I don't go to those, the conversation usually isn't good, and they aren't my idea of fun, but oh…

I don't really understand your point. We should reject ideas that make us feel like we have to sit through a monologue at a dinner party?

We should find more interesting ways to communicate ideas than lengthy recitation.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#95

Post by kelipso »

xboxnolifes wrote: post #75
kelipso wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Chesterton’s Fence argument is an argument against progressive social changes, no?

No, sometimes social change is putting up a fence. And if social change is sometimes putting up fences, that would mean that not all fences are supposed to be torn down.

Chesterton’s fence has a specific definition. It’s not supposed to mean restrictions on social conduct or mores like you seem to be implying.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#96

Post by [deleted] »

mcphage wrote: post #68
valiant55 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The powers that be have always saught wealth. At some point they gained enough power to start usurping the law that was supposed to keep them in check.

We should have made it clearer that monied interests have a choice: be kept in check by the law, or by the guillotine.

[deleted]

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#97

Post by reillyse »

tpm wrote: post #91
Buttons840 wrote: post #65

This is a problem, a net negative and a sign of a weakening society. But, one silver lining, maybe, is gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe? It seems hard to be a climate change denier when you're about to gamble on it. Or maybe people will find a way to gamble while still living in completely different reality bubbles. Probably. If you thought your neighbor was politically extreme last elec…

> But, one silver lining, maybe, is gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe? Long time ago I was working for a betting company and we had a product where virtual (horses, dogs, bikes, cars) were racing in a virtual environment. This was displayed on a TV in physical branches and on the website, along with completely transparent information that it is all random, source of randomness was even so…

pigeon dancing (ala Skinner). Humans love to ascribe meaning to things, we have a real problem with randomness.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#98

Post by thaumasiotes »

Buttons840 wrote: post #65

This is a problem, a net negative and a sign of a weakening society. But, one silver lining, maybe, is gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe? It seems hard to be a climate change denier when you're about to gamble on it. Or maybe people will find a way to gamble while still living in completely different reality bubbles. Probably. If you thought your neighbor was politically extreme last elec…

> If you thought your neighbor was politically extreme last election, just wait until next election when he also has $100,000 on the line...

I've seen the comment that prediction markets can be viewed as a tool for making conflicts more intractable.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#99

Post by shimman »

giantg2 wrote: post #89

What is the legality for US residents? Right now Polymarket is subject to a federal agreement that they don't let US people participate. Apparently this is just a checkbox for the user to attest to. They don't even do IP geolocation, never mind payment checks. So it's currently illegal for them to run this in the US. But is it illegal for users to participate?

It's okay, when the next administration enforces the laws we'll see all the VC ghouls attack and decry the government for having the audacity to protect citizens from abuse.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#100

Post by shimman »

koolba wrote: post #35

> A billionaire congressional candidate can’t just send a check to Quinnipiac University and suddenly find himself as the polling front-runner, but he can place enormous Polymarket bets on himself that move the odds in his favor. Maybe not with a specific pollster depending on their scruples, but you can definitely pay to be part of the poll. And that’s the first step to getting any stats whatsoever.

It doesn't really work, up until a few weeks before the NYC mayoral election. Polymarket had Andrew Cuomo winning by double digits.

It's a trash platform.

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