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There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

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Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#91

Post by JasonADrury »

nradov wrote: post #74
JasonADrury wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear capability wouldn't necessarily rule out this kind of a decapitation strike, it's just that it's very hard to imagine this kind of an operation actually being successful in any nuclear-capable country. The US couldn't just fly a bunch of helicopters to Pyongyang or Tehran and do the same within 30 minutes. Most likely every single one of those helicopters would end up being shot down.

Nuclear capability by itself isn't a complete deterrent. It has been widely reported that the US military has made contingency plans for a decapitation strike and seizure or destruction of nuclear weapons in Pakistan in case the situation turns really bad there. Real deterrence requires a credible second-strike capability on survivable platforms such as submarines.

For nuclear deterrence to work in situations like this, it'd also be preferable to have sufficient conventional capabilities that your leadership isn't decapitated before you even notice it's happening. If the attacker is also nuclear-capable, there's little incentive for second person in the chain of command to kill themselves.

Similarly, if a head of state is killed by poison or other similar means, you could hardly expect nuclear retaliation when their successor later discovers what happened.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#92

Post by Hnrobert42 »

adventured wrote: post #82
delichon wrote: post #28

I assume that nuclear capability would rule out a target from this kind of snatch operation, and that this event will add pressure to proliferate.

Nuclear deterrent is absurd. You have to assume everyone is willing to die over every single thing short of obliteration. So what's the scenario then? Venezuela has nukes. The US abducts Maduro. Venezuela launches its nukes, everyone dies on both sides. Please, explain that laughable premise. Everyone in Venezuela dies for Maduro? Go on, explain it, I'll wait. Back in reality: Venezuela has nukes. The US abducts Madu…

Your tone is unnecessarily condescending and confrontational, but your point is reasonable with respect to Venezuela and Maduro.

With Iran, North Korea, or Ukraine, the calculus is different.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#93

Post by 7952 »

bawolff wrote: post #67
cheema33 wrote: post #27

If you were not already entirely reliant on American tech before, this ought to convince you to put jump in with both feet. What could possibly go wrong?

There is not really any reason to conclude that "american tech" was responsible for this attack. If anything, given all the sanctions Venezuela was under and how friendly they are with china, i would be surprised if they were using american tech in their infrastructure. [Of course i agree with the broader point of dont become dependent on the technology of your geopolitical enemies]

There are other attack vectors beyond infrastructure though when the population all have Android Smart Phones running Play Services and communicate using WhatsApp.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#94

Post by gradus_ad »

rising-sky wrote: post #78
gradus_ad wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's like arguing against the police arresting criminals because it will incentivize them to acquire weapons. The only consistent action for the US to take, given they - and much of the world - do not consider Maduro the legitimate President of Venezuela, was to remove him from power.

Terrible take in the 2nd premise of your argument. Is Venezuela a sovereign nation or a colony? Can similar logic be applied against Russia or even the US?

Of course it can, and it is. Such logic is behind the argument in favor of arresting Putin. Many have argued that should happen if he were to step on their nations' soil. The reason no one thinks seriously about going into Russia and enforcing open arrest warrants is that they fear the consequences, though maybe in light of Russia's revealed impotence that fear is unjustified.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#95

Post by victorbjorklund »

eastbound wrote: post #7
kachapopopow wrote: post #2

I wonder what kind of capabilities the US army didn't use during this operation.

Let’s be honest, that was a crazy operation. I wonder whether they really secured all chances of success, or just winged it with chances of not depositing the leader, and him being able to summon his diplomatic relations into 50 countries declaring war to the USA. While on their way out, if the USA could set everything back to IPv6, that would be nice.

No one would lift a finger for him. Russia just watched. The Chinese too. They may be allies in words but in the end each dictator just care about themselves. Just like how Trump wouldn’t help any ally unless he got something out of it.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#96

Post by conception »

erxam wrote: post #41
delichon wrote: post #28

I assume that nuclear capability would rule out a target from this kind of snatch operation, and that this event will add pressure to proliferate.

Indeed. The DPRK was right from the start. They always were. For the longest time I thought they'd gone too far, but now we're the clowns putting on a show.

I think have thousands of artillery shells aimed at Seoul is the larger deterrent.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#97

Post by 15155 »

adventured wrote: post #82
delichon wrote: post #28

I assume that nuclear capability would rule out a target from this kind of snatch operation, and that this event will add pressure to proliferate.

Nuclear deterrent is absurd. You have to assume everyone is willing to die over every single thing short of obliteration. So what's the scenario then? Venezuela has nukes. The US abducts Maduro. Venezuela launches its nukes, everyone dies on both sides. Please, explain that laughable premise. Everyone in Venezuela dies for Maduro? Go on, explain it, I'll wait. Back in reality: Venezuela has nukes. The US abducts Madu…

> remaining leadership of Venezuela does not in fact want to die for Maduro

Now do this same exercise for Taiwan.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#98

Post by victorbjorklund »

catigula wrote: post #11

Cyber-warfare capabilities on this level seem pretty horrific. What if you could simply turn off the power grid of Kyiv or Moscow in anticipation of a strike? That seems extremely disorientating. What if you could simply turn off the power grid indefinitely?

Russia tried. They haven’t managed to do anything very serious.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#99

Post by [deleted] »

nradov wrote: post #74
JasonADrury wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear capability wouldn't necessarily rule out this kind of a decapitation strike, it's just that it's very hard to imagine this kind of an operation actually being successful in any nuclear-capable country. The US couldn't just fly a bunch of helicopters to Pyongyang or Tehran and do the same within 30 minutes. Most likely every single one of those helicopters would end up being shot down.

Nuclear capability by itself isn't a complete deterrent. It has been widely reported that the US military has made contingency plans for a decapitation strike and seizure or destruction of nuclear weapons in Pakistan in case the situation turns really bad there. Real deterrence requires a credible second-strike capability on survivable platforms such as submarines.

[deleted]

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#100

Post by sroussey »

spacebanana7 wrote: post #60
adolph wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Counterpoint is that Ukraine, Qaddafi, and Assad already demonstrated the significance of maintaining certain capabilities. Vzla didn't have those capabilities before, much less publicly depreciate them.

Ukraine wouldn’t have been invaded if they hadn’t given up their nuclear weapons.

Russia promised not to invade if Ukraine gave up the nukes.
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