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Tesla reports another Robotaxi crash

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla reports another Robotaxi crash

#91

Post by randoglando »

Veserv wrote: post #17

The most damning thing is that the most advanced version, with the most modern hardware, with perfectly maintained vehicles, running in a pre-trained geofence that is pre-selected to work well [1] with trained, professional safety drivers, with scrutinized data and reporting average a upper bound of 40,000 miles per collision (assuming the mileage numbers were not puffery [3]). Yet somehow they claim that old version…

It's because of selection bias. In the older vehicles, customers won't turn on autopilot if they think it won't handle the situation. So, they turn it on highways and easier paths.

Re: Tesla reports another Robotaxi crash

#92

Post by randoglando »

BrenBarn wrote: post #58
rich_sasha wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk's success story is taking very bold bets almost flippantly. These things have a premium associates with them, because to most people they are so toxic that they would never consider them. Every time when he has the choice to do something conservative or bold, he goes for the latter, and so long as he has a bit of luck, that is very much a winning strategy. To most people, I guess the stress of always betting eve…

The fact that he's able to fake it until he makes it is a failure of our society. He should be impoverished and incarcerated.

He's a complicated figure. He has done so much good as well. EVs in the US and reusable rockets owe a lot to him. OTOH, so does the cesspool that is X.

Re: Tesla reports another Robotaxi crash

#93

Post by jsnell »

fpoling wrote: post #40
vjvjvjvjghv wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Usually you would go in with the max amount of sensors and data, make it work and then see what can be left out. It seems dumb to limit yourself from beginning if you don’t know yet what really works. But then I am not a multi billionaire so what do i know?

Well we know that vision works based on human experience. So few years ago it was a reasonable bet that cameras alone could solve this. The problem with Tesla is that they still continue to insist on that after it became apparent that vision alone with the current tech and machine learning does not work. They even do not want to use a radar again even if the radar does not cost much and is very beneficial for safety.

Human performance won't be sufficient. Self-driving vehicles have to be noticably (order of magnitude) better than humans to be accepted.

Re: Tesla reports another Robotaxi crash

#94

Post by orwin »

kstenerud wrote: post #78

There's a lot of editorializing going on. Now that the title has been restored, hopefully things calm down a bit. Ultimately, Tesla has two problems going on here: 1. Their crash rate is 2x that of Waymo. 2. They redact a lot of key information, which complicates safety assessments of their fleet. The redactions actually hurt Tesla, because the nature of each road incident really matters: EVERY traffic incident must…

If you only count robotaxis and not all Tesla, isn't the crash rate 20X per driven mile? I remember doing the math a few months ago and finding 20, but I might be mistaken.

Re: Tesla reports another Robotaxi crash

#95

Post by cn-watch »

randoglando wrote: post #92
BrenBarn wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that he's able to fake it until he makes it is a failure of our society. He should be impoverished and incarcerated.

He's a complicated figure. He has done so much good as well. EVs in the US and reusable rockets owe a lot to him. OTOH, so does the cesspool that is X.

There are no elon musk museums. There are no elon musk hospitals. There are no elon musk centers for unwed mothers.

How could the richest man in the world give so little back.

Re: Tesla reports another Robotaxi crash

#96

Post by AnthonyMouse »

randoglando wrote: post #91
Veserv wrote: post #17

The most damning thing is that the most advanced version, with the most modern hardware, with perfectly maintained vehicles, running in a pre-trained geofence that is pre-selected to work well [1] with trained, professional safety drivers, with scrutinized data and reporting average a upper bound of 40,000 miles per collision (assuming the mileage numbers were not puffery [3]). Yet somehow they claim that old version…

It's because of selection bias. In the older vehicles, customers won't turn on autopilot if they think it won't handle the situation. So, they turn it on highways and easier paths.

There is also another possibility.

People often don't report minor accidents. Someone scrapes a pole without causing enough damage to hit their insurance deductible, are they going to file a police report? Mostly not. And then the older number had that in it and the newer one doesn't.

But the number for human drivers works like the old number. They're dividing miles driven by reported accidents. On top of that, they're using the average -- by miles -- which isn't the same as the median, and in particular that will over-represent drivers who drive the most miles, who are disproportionately professional drivers.

Re: Tesla reports another Robotaxi crash

#97

Post by AnthonyMouse »

cn-watch wrote: post #95
randoglando wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's a complicated figure. He has done so much good as well. EVs in the US and reusable rockets owe a lot to him. OTOH, so does the cesspool that is X.

There are no elon musk museums. There are no elon musk hospitals. There are no elon musk centers for unwed mothers. How could the richest man in the world give so little back.

Traditionally those are the things that happen once someone retires and starts contemplating where their money should go after they die.

Re: Tesla reports another Robotaxi crash

#98

Post by ndsipa_pomu »

How does it make sense that Tesla are allowed to redact information about an RTC on public roads? If the information is proprietary then keep the vehicle away from public roads until they stop crashing or the info can be released in the event of a collision.

Re: Tesla reports another Robotaxi crash

#99

Post by xnx »

cameldrv wrote: post #75
guywithahat wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The more I've looked into the topic the less I think the removal of lidar was a cost issue. I think there are a lot of benefits to simplifying your sensor tech stack, and while I won't pretend to know the best solution removing things like lidar and ultrasonic sensors seem to have been a decision about improving performance. By doubling down on cameras your technical team can remain focused on certain sensor technolo…

Honestly I think it's more that he was backed into a corner. The Teslas from ~9 years ago when they first started selling "full self driving" as an option, had some OK cameras and, by modern standards, a very crappy radar. The radar they had really couldn't detect stationary objects. It relied on the doppler effect to look for moving objects. That would work most of the time, but sometimes there would be a stationary…

> he was backed into a corner

He "painted himself into a corner" is the more accurate expression when one is the cause of their own problem

Re: Tesla reports another Robotaxi crash

#100

Post by xnx »

xp84 wrote: post #59
goosejuice wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nevermind the Waymos rolling by stopped school busses. https://www.npr.org/2025/12/06/nx-s1-5635614/waymo-school-bu...

This seems solvable, no? Not saying it isn’t really damn important, but those have stop signs and flashing lights. It seems like they can fix that.

Indeed. The problem was already fixed.
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