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Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

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Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#91

Post by beeflet »

whycombinetor wrote: post #75
trollbridge wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right. With careful use of AIs, I can use it to gather information to help me make better designs (like giving me summaries of the current best available frameworks or libraries to choose for a given project), but as far as just generating an architecture and then generating the code and devops and so on for that? It's just not there, unless you're creating an app that effectively already exists, like some basic CRUD…

What do you mean when you say building crud apps should be automated?

conventionally, it should have been abstracted by a higher-level language.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#92

Post by jordwest »

actionfromafar wrote: post #83
jordwest wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be kinda funny if not so tragic how economists will argue both "[productive improvement] will make things cheaper" and then in the next breath "deflation is bad and must be avoided at all costs"

But is it really, though? Dollars aren't meant to be held.

I think the idea of dollars as purely a trading medium where absolute prices don't matter wouldn't be such an issue if wages weren't always the last thing to rise with inflation.

As it is now anyone with assets is only barely affected by inflation while those who earn a living from wages have their livelihood eroded over time covertly.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#93

Post by websiteapi »

atleastoptimal wrote: post #55
websiteapi wrote: post #22

funny how we have all of this progress yet things that actually matter (sorry chess fans) in the real world are more expensive: health care, housing, cars. and what meager gains there are seem to be more and more concentrated in a smaller group of people. plenty of charts you can look at - net productivity by virtually any metric vs real adjusted income. the example I like are kiosks and self checkout. who has encoun…

Those are all expensive because of artificial barriers meant to keep their prices high. Go to any Asian country and houses, healthcare and cars are priced like commodities, not luxuries. Tech and AI have taken off in the US partially because they’re in the domain of software, which hasnt bee regulated to the point of deliberate inefficiency like other industries in the US.

you mean the same Asia that has the same problem? USA enjoying arbitrage is not actually a solution nor is it sustainable. not to mention that if you control for certain things, like house size for instance relative to inflation adjusted income it isn't actually much different despite popular belief.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#94

Post by COAGULOPATH »

> In 1920, there were 25 million horses in the United States, 25 million horses totally ambivalent to two hundred years of progress in mechanical engines.

But would you rather be a horse in 1920 or 2020? Wouldn't you rather have modern medicine, better animal welfare laws, less exposure to accidents, and so on?

The only way horses conceivably have it worse is that there are fewer of them (a kind of "repugnant conclusion")...but what does that matter to an individual horse? No human regards it as a tragedy that there are only 9 billion of us instead of 90 billion. We care more about the welfare of the 9 billion.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#95

Post by tadfisher »

jacquesm wrote: post #89
AnotherGoodName wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To give backing i’m from Australia which has ~2.5x the median wealth per capita of US citizens but a lower average wealth. This shows through in the wealth of a typical citizen. Less homelessness, better living standards (hdi in australia is higher) etc. Compare sorting by median vs average to get a sense of the issue; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_pe... This is a recent development where…

I think by the time the wealthy realize they're setting themselves up for the local equivalent of the French Revolution it will be a bit late. It's a really bad idea to create a large number of people with absolutely nothing to lose.

They already know, and do not care. Their plan is quite literally to retreat into bunkers with shock collars enforcing the loyalty of their guards.

The richest of the rich have purchased islands where they can hole up.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#96

Post by yulker »

zdragnar wrote: post #90
AnotherGoodName wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To give backing i’m from Australia which has ~2.5x the median wealth per capita of US citizens but a lower average wealth. This shows through in the wealth of a typical citizen. Less homelessness, better living standards (hdi in australia is higher) etc. Compare sorting by median vs average to get a sense of the issue; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_pe... This is a recent development where…

> All it takes is tax on the extremely wealthy and lessening taxes on the middle class… seems obvious right? You could tax 100% of all of the top 1%'s income (not progressively, just a flat 100% tax) and it'd cover less than double the federal government's budget deficit in the US. There would be just enough left over to pay for making the covid 19 ACA subsidies permanent and a few other pet projects. Of course, you…

The point isn't to just cover the tax bill, it's that by shifting the burden up the class ladder, there is more capital available to the classes that spend and circulate their money in the economy rather than merely accumulate it

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#97

Post by AstroBen »

tadfisher wrote: post #95
jacquesm wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think by the time the wealthy realize they're setting themselves up for the local equivalent of the French Revolution it will be a bit late. It's a really bad idea to create a large number of people with absolutely nothing to lose.

They already know, and do not care. Their plan is quite literally to retreat into bunkers with shock collars enforcing the loyalty of their guards. The richest of the rich have purchased islands where they can hole up.

Stripped of their infinite freedom out here to hide in a bunker? No chance

The bunkers are in case of nuclear war or serious pandemics. Absolutely worst case last resort scenario, not just "oh I don't care if I end up there"

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#99

Post by nextworddev »

xlbuttplug2 wrote: post #86
leowoo91 wrote: post #60

We still have chess grandmasters if you have noticed..

Yes, and we'll continue to have human coding competitions for entertainment purpose. Good luck trying to live off the prize money though.

Hikaru makes good money streaming on Twitch tho

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#100

Post by BeefySwain »

COAGULOPATH wrote: post #94

> In 1920, there were 25 million horses in the United States, 25 million horses totally ambivalent to two hundred years of progress in mechanical engines. But would you rather be a horse in 1920 or 2020? Wouldn't you rather have modern medicine, better animal welfare laws, less exposure to accidents, and so on? The only way horses conceivably have it worse is that there are fewer of them (a kind of "repugnant conclus…

The equivalency here is not 9 billion versus 90 billion, it's 9 billion versus 90 million, and the question is how does the decline look? Does it look like the standard of living for everyone increasing so high that the replacement rate is in the single digit percentage range, or does it look like some version of Elysium where millions have immense wealth and billions have nothing and die off?
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