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DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why

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Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why

#91

Post by zozbot234 »

jagged-chisel wrote: post #88
ChadNauseam wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> then during spikes in demand (or alleged spikes in demand) they coordinate to keep the price from dropping. Why would they need to coordinate to keep the price from dropping during a spike in demand? a spike in demand will obviously not be expected to lower prices regardless of collusion

To keep someone from undercutting others’ prices and causing a competitive pricing war. Realistically, it wouldn’t be a meaningful drop to the consumer. But it’ll affect some executive’s ability to buy another unnecessary trinket.

If the industry is at capacity (which it plausibly is, especially since HBM memory is made in the same facilities) then no one can physically "undercut" anyone else. Collusion works by artificially restraining supply of some valuable good; if there was genuine collusion at play, we'd probably be seeing companies make less of the expensive HBM (to push its price even higher; note that patent and other IPR restrictions can in fact have this effect, to some extent) and more of the comparatively cheap DRAM!

Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why

#92

Post by hyperpape »

sc68cal wrote: post #36
legitster wrote: post #13

What's happening right now is very different than what happened back during the dot com crash. When they were doing price fixing it was because there was a glut of supply and demand was tanking. Prices were falling and they coordinated to keep prices from falling less. Right now demand for DRAM is extremely high bordering on endless. Prices are going up . The incentive for one of the big players to undercut the other…

> The incentive for one of the big players to undercut the other on cost even just a little bit to pick up market share is extremely lucrative. I would argue that the DRAM price fixing scandal actually demonstrates that the industry operates like a cartel. During times of low demand and high supply, they will coordinate to protect prices, and then during spikes in demand (or alleged spikes in demand) they coordinate…

The problem with citing cartels and greed is...when prices are low, is it because the industry is momentarily altruistic? Did the industry wake up in late 2025 and think "holy shit, I've been being nice, but it's time to turn over a new leaf and start gouging people?"

I mean, don't get me wrong, they are greedy. But that's been true for years. What's changed is the market.

Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why

#93

Post by casey2 »

legitster wrote: post #13

What's happening right now is very different than what happened back during the dot com crash. When they were doing price fixing it was because there was a glut of supply and demand was tanking. Prices were falling and they coordinated to keep prices from falling less. Right now demand for DRAM is extremely high bordering on endless. Prices are going up . The incentive for one of the big players to undercut the other…

Supply and demand "theory" being used yet again to justify obvious price fixing.

Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why

#94

Post by Tadpole9181 »

gruez wrote: post #32
walterbell wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"OMEC" (Organization of Memory Exporting Countries) NAND production quotas? https://x.com/jukanlosreve/status/1988505115339436423 > Samsung Electronics has lowered its target for NAND wafer output this year to around 4.72 million sheets, about 7% down from the previous year's 5.07 million. Kioxia also adjusted its output from 4.80 million last year to 4.69 million this year.. SK hynix and Micron are likewise keeping…

Can you blame them, though? Between the notorious boom-and-bust cycle of semiconductor industry, and everyone (including much of this forum) thinking that AI is a bubble that will crash any minute, is it really that unreasonable that they're not trying to massively ramp up supply?

Yes, I can absolutely blame companies for illegally coordinating supply reductions to raise their prices on a captured market, and in this case accidentally causing a global supply crisis in doing so.

Especially when those companies were already caught doing it multiple times over and told to stop.

Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why

#95

Post by lazide »

energy123 wrote: post #85
lazide wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If demand is high and supply is fixed (generally the case) you can also pull a DeBeers, grab everyone by the balls, and charge 3x (or more) the already high prices everyone would already get when you sell out your inventory.

To the extent that demand is price inelastic, which in practice means a lack of substitutes and the product serving an essential need.

With the AI boom ongoing, plenty of people with deep pockets are desperate. Perfect time for some gouging.

Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why

#96

Post by [deleted] »

ffsm8 wrote: post #38
legitster wrote: post #13

What's happening right now is very different than what happened back during the dot com crash. When they were doing price fixing it was because there was a glut of supply and demand was tanking. Prices were falling and they coordinated to keep prices from falling less. Right now demand for DRAM is extremely high bordering on endless. Prices are going up . The incentive for one of the big players to undercut the other…

I do not have any particular insight into the market, I was just extremely confused reading this in particular > Right now demand for DRAM is extremely high bordering on endless. Prices are going up. The incentive for one of the big players to undercut the other on cost even just a little bit to pick up market share is extremely lucrative. Given this first statement, the last one makes no sense. Either the demand is…

[deleted]

Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why

#97

Post by pimeys »

ffsm8 wrote: post #64
vablings wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The biggest issue here is that it hurts smaller consumers. Scaling up a fab to produce ram takes 5+ years, people generally buy new hardware ~5 years so this lifecycle of hardware for some people is now locked out. Let's say you was due for an upgrade this year you now might be priced out of the market for the next 5 years and basically due to poor business practices There is a similar issue happening in the manufact…

Do people really still upgrade so often? I mean it made sense pre 2015 for desktops, and pre 2020 for laptops... But since... Not much has changed from a performance standpoint. Even gpus hardly advanced since 2022 (4090) and the next generation is at least 1++ years off. Likely 2-3... And it's unclear wherever it will actually be an upgrade or more of the AI shenanigans they released with the 50 generation.

Well, I just updated my 5950x with 128 GB to AMD Strix Halo with the same amount of much faster RAM. It is noticeable faster, but what's better: the whole computer is tiny and sips energy.

I'm very happy I ordered this in the summer, framework delivered it to me early this month. I wonder will these machine just be out of stock now or the price goes up a lot...

Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why

#98

Post by arn3n »

I keep hearing about how the supply and demand cycles are “lagged” and that this price spike happens every 3-5 years for purely economical reasons. I feel like I’m being gaslit — I don’t recall any such price spikes in the past of this magnitude. You’re telling me that there’s a totally predictable price cycle and NO ONE has prepared for it? Or else prices are just high temporarily and no one can step in to increase supply? Either way, it seems that there’s not enough competition in this market.

Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why

#99

Post by unethical_ban »

QuantumSeed wrote: post #54

I ordered 96GB of memory last Tuesday from Corsair. Two days later when I checked the website again, the exact same memory was being sold for twice what I paid for it.

Just throwing another anecdote out there, my Zen 1 CPU (1700) was flaking out and I was kind of thinking of doing an AM5 build, with an IPMI motherboard and some nice DDR5 memory. DDR5 has a quasi-ECC built in, which is good for a server.

Thing is, I have 128GB of memtest86-passed DDR4 RAM, and while I don't need that much, the idea of spending ~$300 on 32GB was ludicrous. So I have a Ryzen 5700G now, and all is well.

Re: DRAM prices are spiking, but I don't trust the industry's why

#100

Post by [deleted] »

legitster wrote: post #13

What's happening right now is very different than what happened back during the dot com crash. When they were doing price fixing it was because there was a glut of supply and demand was tanking. Prices were falling and they coordinated to keep prices from falling less. Right now demand for DRAM is extremely high bordering on endless. Prices are going up . The incentive for one of the big players to undercut the other…

[deleted]
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