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Server DRAM prices surge 50% as AI-induced memory shortage hits hyperscalers

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Re: Server DRAM prices surge 50% as AI-induced memory shortage hits hyperscalers

#91
post #6
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've just built a gaming PC (after more than a decade without one), for curiosity's sake I just compared the prices I paid for DDR5 2 months ago to now, and at my location it already shows a 25-30% increase. Bonkers...

Same, just checked and the "G.SKILL Trident Z5 Neo Series 64GB (2 x 32GB)" RAM I bought 9 months ago for $208 is now $464. That's crazy!

I got 96GB in June with a desktop upgrade, good timing and should be enough for a good while.

Re: Server DRAM prices surge 50% as AI-induced memory shortage hits hyperscalers

#92
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Micron has US memory semiconductor fab capacity coming online in 2027 through 2040s, based on $150B new construction. Yay, the public is on the hook for $150B of loans to be payed by inflationary pricing. I guess, you offered the news hoping prices will fall... In terms of real economic analysis there's a lot to say here but let me point at only one of the many entry points of the rabbit hole: "Microsoft CEO says t…

>Yay, the public is on the hook for $150B of loans to be payed by inflationary pricing. Where does it say it was funded by $150B of public loans? >which doesn't change the fact of speculative hoarding All investment resembles "speculative hoarding'. You're pouring money into a project now with the expectation that it'll pay off in decades. > and trust-like behavior against the public. ??? >If you pay attention, you w…

> Where does it say it was funded by $150B of public loans?

let me repeat something you've already quoted

>> the public is on the hook for $150B of loans to be payed by inflationary pricing.

one more time "to be payed by inflationary pricing"

> Datacenters are actually associated with lower electricity costs in the US.

"Associated" means these areas are getting preferential pricing to shift more of the cost to the public. Proves my point.

The actual truth, with numbers, just for 2024 and Virginia alone:

"Mike Jacobs, a senior energy manager at the Union of Concerned Scientists, last month released an analysis estimating that data centers had added billions of dollars to Americans’ electric bills across seven different states in recent years. In Virginia alone, for instance, Jacobs found that household electric bills had subsidized data center transmission costs to the tune of $1.9 billion in 2024."

https://www.commondreams.org/news/ai-data-center-backlash

Also:

"Over the last five years, commercial users including data centers and industrial users began drinking more deeply from the grid, with annual growth rising 2.6% and 2.1%, respectively. Meanwhile, residential use only grew by 0.7% annually."

https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/01/rising-energy-prices-put-a...

Re: Server DRAM prices surge 50% as AI-induced memory shortage hits hyperscalers

#93
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And here I'm sitting with my AM4 system, debating if to go AM5, sTR5, sTRX4 or what when it's time for the next upgrade.

I'm still happy with my AM3.

In the end I just need more available PCIe lanes (so I can chuck more disks in there) and ideally PCIe Gen 5, otherwise I don't have much reason to upgrade.

Re: Server DRAM prices surge 50% as AI-induced memory shortage hits hyperscalers

#94
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Yay, the public is on the hook for $150B of loans to be payed by inflationary pricing. Where does it say it was funded by $150B of public loans? >which doesn't change the fact of speculative hoarding All investment resembles "speculative hoarding'. You're pouring money into a project now with the expectation that it'll pay off in decades. > and trust-like behavior against the public. ??? >If you pay attention, you w…

> Where does it say it was funded by $150B of public loans? let me repeat something you've already quoted >> the public is on the hook for $150B of loans to be payed by inflationary pricing . one more time "to be payed by inflationary pricing" > Datacenters are actually associated with lower electricity costs in the US. "Associated" means these areas are getting preferential pricing to shift more of the cost to the p…

>let me repeat something you've already quoted

>>> the public is on the hook for $150B of loans to be payed by inflationary pricing.

That framing makes even less sense. Even if we grant that capital spending is inflationary, nobody thinks the public is "on the hook" or pays for it "by inflationary pricing". If I bought a box of eggs, it probably drives up the price of eggs by some minute amount in the aggregate, but nobody would characterize that as the public being "on the hook" for it, or that the public is paying for it "by inflationary pricing". Same if I bought anything else supply constrained, like an apartment or GPU. Seemingly the only difference between those and whatever Micron is doing is that you don't like Micron and/or the AI bubble, whereas you at least tolerate me buying eggs, apartments, or GPUs, so your whole spiel about "payed by inflationary pricing" is just a roundabout way of saying you don't like Micron/AI companies' spending. I also disagree with people dropping $30K on hermes handbags, but I wouldn't characterize buying them as "the public is on the hook for $30k to be payed by inflationary pricing".

>The actual truth, with numbers, just for 2024 and Virginia alone:

"actual truth"? That settles it, then.

On a more substantive note, since you clearly haven't bothered to look into either article to examine their methodology, here's the relevant snippets for your convenience:

>Mike Jacobs, a senior energy manager at UCS, uncovered these additional costs by analyzing last year’s filings from utilities in seven PJM states and identifying 130 projects that will connect private data centers directly to the high-voltage transmission system. Over 95% of the projects identified passed all of their transmission connection costs onto local people’s electricity bills, totaling $4.3 billion in costs previously undistinguished from other, more typical expenses to upgrade and maintain the electricity grid.

and

>The Economist has adapted a model of state-level retail electricity prices from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory to include data centres (see chart 2). We find no association between the increase in bills from 2019 to 2024 and data-centre additions. The state with the most new data centres, Virginia, saw bills rise by less than the model projected. The same went for Georgia. In fact, the model found that higher growth in electricity demand came alongside lower bills, reflecting the fact that a larger load lets a grid spread its fixed costs across more bill-payers.

>chart 2: https://www.economist.com/content-assets/images/20251101_USC...

Looking at the two different methodologies, the economist methodology seem far more reasonable, because the UCS's methodology is basically guaranteed to come up with a positive number. It just counts how much money was spent on connecting datacenters, and assumes assumes household users are paying the entire bill. It doesn't account for different rates/fees paid by retail/household users, or the possibility that datacenters could be paying more than their "fair share" of costs through other means (eg. they might require disportionately less infrastructure to service, but pay the same transmission rates as everyone else).

Re: Server DRAM prices surge 50% as AI-induced memory shortage hits hyperscalers

#95
post #87

I bet some are already buying the highest capacatiy DDR5 DIMMs in bulk to later put them on eBay in the upcoming major DRAM shortage.

I’ve been selling unused ddr4 on eBay. It’s not as profitable as one would think tbh even with elevated demand. Only making a profit on the ones I initially acquired 2nd hand

I think people who bought a high-end nvidia graphics card in the max. memory config pre-AI Hype, would have made a very decent deal on eBay. DRAM is yet to come.

Re: Server DRAM prices surge 50% as AI-induced memory shortage hits hyperscalers

#96
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pet peeve: Contrary to a persistent popular belief, inflation != currency debasement. (You can have inflation while your currency go up relatively to all the others on the FX market, like what happened to USD in 2022-S1, or you can have massive inflation difference between countries sharing the same currency, like it happened in the Euro Area between 2022 and today).

>Pet peeve: Contrary to a persistent popular belief, inflation != currency debasement. Not to mention that "debasement" doesn't make sense anymore given that there basically aren't any currencies on the gold standard anymore. At best you could call a pegged currency that was devalued as being debased (with the base being the pegged currency), but that doesn't apply to USD. "debasement" therefore is just a pejorative…

I think it's fair to keep using debasement for the act of letting your currency go down against other currencies on the FX market.

> "inflation" or "monetary expansion".

This is my second pet peeve on the topic, inflation and growth of the money supply are independent phenomenons. (they are only correlated in countries with high inflation regimes and, hyperinflation aside, the causation is essentially reversed: the money supply grow because of the inflation, higher price leading to an increase of loans).

Re: Server DRAM prices surge 50% as AI-induced memory shortage hits hyperscalers

#97
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are those graphs specifically for the US? When I change the country in the top right, it doesn't seem like the graphs are changing, and considering they're in USD, I'm assuming it's US-only? Is the same doubling happening world-wide or is this US-specific, I guess is my question? Edit: one data point, I last bought 128GB of RAM in March 2024 for ~€536, similar ones right now costs ~€500, but maybe the time range is t…

It just means RAMs aren't sold in volume in your area, if you're not feeling it... [1]: https://kakaku.com/item/K0001448114/pricehistory/ (archive: https://archive.is/CHLs2 )

I'm not finding any way of figuring out if that's true or not, I live near the second-largest city in Spain, kind of feel like people probably buy as much RAM here as elsewhere in the country/continent, but maybe that's incorrect. I've tried searching for graphs/statistics for the last 1-2 years about it in Spain but not having much success.

Re: Server DRAM prices surge 50% as AI-induced memory shortage hits hyperscalers

#98
post #17

Have we given up on edge AI this early?

Does edge AI require less RAM?

Less ram? Not really. Less hardware? Yes. That machine is already in the wild, so why not let it have proper AI accelerator + increase memory the machine has - also the data transfer problem is solved since it's on that machine.

Re: Server DRAM prices surge 50% as AI-induced memory shortage hits hyperscalers

#99
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does edge AI require less RAM?

I would expect edge AI requires much more RAM at a global level due to less efficient utilisation.

Tons of resources are sitting unused within each and every computer sold today regardless of AI.

Re: Server DRAM prices surge 50% as AI-induced memory shortage hits hyperscalers

#100
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It just means RAMs aren't sold in volume in your area, if you're not feeling it... [1]: https://kakaku.com/item/K0001448114/pricehistory/ (archive: https://archive.is/CHLs2 )

I'm not finding any way of figuring out if that's true or not, I live near the second-largest city in Spain, kind of feel like people probably buy as much RAM here as elsewhere in the country/continent, but maybe that's incorrect. I've tried searching for graphs/statistics for the last 1-2 years about it in Spain but not having much success.

I can add Spain price trends to PCPartPicker. Quick question though - do you want the price trends to cover just Spanish retailers, or should it trend the prices across all of the EU?
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