Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI? • Hacker News Board

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#91

Post by port3000 » Tue, Oct 21, 2025, 5:21 PM UTC

Karrot_Kream wrote: post #12

zerosizedweasle wrote: post #2

"Whether Sora lasts or not, however, is somewhat beside the point. What catches my attention most is that OpenAI released this app in the first place. It wasn’t that long ago that Sam Altman was still comparing the release of GPT-5 to the testing of the first atomic bomb , and many commentators took Dario Amodei at his word when he proclaimed 50% of white collar jobs might soon be automated by LLM-based tools." That'…

What signals have you seen that point to investment being predicated around AGI? Boosting Nvidia stock prices could also be explained by an expectation of increased inference usage by office workers which increases demands for GPUs and justifies datacenter buildouts. That's a much more "sober" outlook than AGI. In fact a fun thing to think about is what signals we could observe in markets that specifically call out A…

"Boosting Nvidia stock prices could also be explained by an expectation of increased inference usage by office workers which increases demands for GPUs and justifies datacenter buildouts"

AI is already integrated into every single Google search, as well as Slack, Notion, Teams, Microsoft Office, Google Docs, Zoom, Google Meet, Figma, Hubspot, Zendesk, Freshdesk, Intercom, Basecamp, Evernote, Dropbox, Salesforce, Canva, Photoshop, Airtable, Gmail, LinkedIn, Shopify, Asana, Trello, Monday.com, ClickUp, Miro, Confluence, Jira, GitHub, Linear, Docusign, Workday

.....so where is this 100X increase in inference demand going to come from?

Oh and the ChatGPT consumer app is seeing slowing growth: https://techcrunch.com/2025/10/17/chatgpts-mobile-app-is-see...

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#92

Post by Eisenstein » Tue, Oct 21, 2025, 5:22 PM UTC

FloorEgg wrote: post #66

hombre_fatal wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that we're already post truth. Just consider how a screenshot of a tweet or made-up headline already spreads like a wildfire: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1980221072512635117 Sora involves far more work than what is required to spread misinfo. Finally, people don't really care about the truth. They care about things that confirm their world view, or comfortable things. Or they dismiss things that are…

Assuming this is all true, what's the most optimistic view you can take looking ~20 years out? How could all of this wind up leading to a much more fair, kind, sustainable and prosperous future? Acknowledging risks is important, but where do YOU want all this to go?

As adults already, we grew up with things that are either not relevant or give us the wrong responses to our heuristics.

But the kids who grow up with this stuff will just integrate into their life and proceed. The society which results from that will be something we cannot predict as it will be alien to us. Whether it will be better or not -- probably not.

Humans evolved to spend most of their time with a small group of trusted people. By removing ourselves from that we have created all sorts of problems that we just aren't really that equipped to deal with. If this is solvable or not has yet to be seen.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#93

Post by anarticle » Tue, Oct 21, 2025, 5:24 PM UTC

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #11

I'm more concerned about Sora (and video-generating AI in general) being the final pour that cements us into our post-truth world. People will be swayed by AI-generated videos while also being convinced real videos are AI. I'm kinda terrified of the future of politics.

I think their game theoretic aim was to completely discredit video online. Just as we don't accept text in general as truth or image when we see it, we are being flooded with completely fake vids so people can shake the idea that videos are truth.

It smells of e/acc, effective altruist ethics which are not my favorite, but I don't work at OpenAI so I don't have a say I can only interpret.

I agree, but we will likely continue down this road...

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#94

Post by Eisenstein » Tue, Oct 21, 2025, 5:24 PM UTC

cruffle_duffle wrote: post #76

highwaylights wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm surprised this isn't a bigger concern given that: For over a year now we've been at the point whereby a video of anyone saying or doing anything can be generated by anyone and put on the Internet, and it's only becoming more convincing (and rapidly) We've been living in a post-truth world for almost ten years, so it's now become normalized Almost half of the population has been conditioned to believe anything tha…

Absolutely! And don’t kid yourself into thinking you are immune from this either. You can find support of basically anything you want to believe. And your friendly LLM will be more than happy to confirm it too! Honestly it goes right back to philosophy and what truth even means. Is there even such a thing?

People forget that critical thinking means thinking critically about everything, even things you already think are true because they fit into your worldview.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#95

Post by bemmu » Tue, Oct 21, 2025, 5:24 PM UTC

kulahan wrote: post #69

kbos87 wrote: post #57

I could see Sora having a significant negative impact on short form video products like TikTok if they don’t quickly and accurately find a way to categorize its use. A steady stream of AI generated video content hurts the value prop of short form video in more than one way… It quickly desensitizes you and takes the surprise out that drives consumption of a lot of content. It also of course leaves you feeling like you…

Do people on the dopamine drip really care how real their content is? Tons and tons of it is staged or modified anyways. I'm not sure there's anything Real™ on TikTok anyways.

I find Sora refreshing in that I don't have to worry about being tricked by something fake. It's just a fun multiplayer slopfest.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#96

Post by safety1st » Tue, Oct 21, 2025, 5:28 PM UTC

mola wrote: post #40

bonoboTP wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We will adjust. And guess what, before photography, people managed somehow. People gossiped all sorts of stuff, spread malicious runors and you had to guess what's a lie and what's not. The way people dealt with it was witness testimony and physical evidence.

Yes, that adjustment could well be monarchy. I can't see how functioning democracy can survive without truth as shared grounds of discussion.

The media's been lying to us for as long as it has existed.

Prior to the Internet the range of opinions which you could gain access to was far more limited. If the media were all in agreement on something it was really hard to find a counter-argument.

We're so far down the rabbit hole already of bots and astroturfing online, I doubt that AI deepfake videos are going to be the nail in the coffin for democracy.

The majority of the bot, deepfake and AI lies are going to be created by the people who have the most capital.

Just like they owned the traditional media and created the lies there.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#97

Post by afavour » Tue, Oct 21, 2025, 5:28 PM UTC

hn_throw2025 wrote: post #81

sofixa wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The way people dealt with it was witness testimony and physical evidence. Which are inapplicable today. > We will adjust Will we? Maybe years later... per event. It's finally now dawning on the majority of Britons that Brexit was a mistake they were lied about.

[flagged]

> Oh, do shut up

OP is speaking the truth here.

> It's finally now dawning on the majority of Britons that Brexit was a mistake

As of June 2025, 56 percent of people in Great Britain thought that it was wrong to leave the European Union, compared with 31 percent who thought it was the right decision.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/987347/brexit-opinion-po...

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#98

Post by shnp » Tue, Oct 21, 2025, 5:30 PM UTC

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #11

I'm more concerned about Sora (and video-generating AI in general) being the final pour that cements us into our post-truth world. People will be swayed by AI-generated videos while also being convinced real videos are AI. I'm kinda terrified of the future of politics.

Flawless AI generated videos will result in video footage not being trusted.

This will simply take us back about 150 years to the time before the camera was common.

The transition period may be painful though.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#99

Post by code4life » Tue, Oct 21, 2025, 5:32 PM UTC

hombre_fatal wrote: post #33

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #11

I'm more concerned about Sora (and video-generating AI in general) being the final pour that cements us into our post-truth world. People will be swayed by AI-generated videos while also being convinced real videos are AI. I'm kinda terrified of the future of politics.

The problem is that we're already post truth. Just consider how a screenshot of a tweet or made-up headline already spreads like a wildfire: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1980221072512635117 Sora involves far more work than what is required to spread misinfo. Finally, people don't really care about the truth. They care about things that confirm their world view, or comfortable things. Or they dismiss things that are…

> Finally, people don't really care about the truth.

What is truth? Pontius Pilate

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#100

Post by marshfarm » Tue, Oct 21, 2025, 5:36 PM UTC

hombre_fatal wrote: post #33

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #11

I'm more concerned about Sora (and video-generating AI in general) being the final pour that cements us into our post-truth world. People will be swayed by AI-generated videos while also being convinced real videos are AI. I'm kinda terrified of the future of politics.

The problem is that we're already post truth. Just consider how a screenshot of a tweet or made-up headline already spreads like a wildfire: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1980221072512635117 Sora involves far more work than what is required to spread misinfo. Finally, people don't really care about the truth. They care about things that confirm their world view, or comfortable things. Or they dismiss things that are…

We're probably post-narrative and post-lexical (words) but haven't become aware of what to possibly update these tools with. Post-truth is an abstraction rooted in the arbitrary.

Reality is specific. Actions, materials. Words and language are arbitrary, they're processes, and they're simulations. They don't reference things, they represent them in metaphors, so sure they have "meaning" but the meanings reduce the specifics in reality which have many times the meaning possibility to linearity, cause and effect. That's not conforming to the reality that exists, that's severely reducing, even dumbing down reality.