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Model intelligence is no longer the constraint for automation

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Re: Model intelligence is no longer the constraint for automation

#91
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do think that competent humans can solve any arbitrary sum of 2 whole number with a pen, paper and time. LLMs can't do that.

That’s interesting, you added a tool. You did not just leave it to the human alone.

LLMs already get enough working memory, they do not fail because of lack of working space.

Re: Model intelligence is no longer the constraint for automation

#92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s interesting, you added a tool. You did not just leave it to the human alone.

I'm not the fellow you replied to, but I felt like stepping in. > That’s interesting, you added a tool. The "tool" in this case, is a memory aid. Because they are computer programs running inside a fairly-ordinary computer, the LLMs have exactly the same sort of tool available to them. I would find a claim that LLMs don't have a free MB or so of RAM to use as scratch space for long addition to be unbelievable.

The fact that an LLM is running inside an ordinary computer does not mean that it gets to use all the abilities of that computer. They do not have megabytes of scratch space merely because the computer has a lot of memory.

They do have something a bit like it: their "context window", the amount of input and recently-generated output they get to look at while generating the next token. Claude Sonnet 4 has 1M tokens of context, but e.g. Opus 4.1 has only 200k and I think GPT-5 has 256k. And it doesn't really behave like "scratch space" in any useful sense; e.g., the models can't modify anything once it's there.

Re: Model intelligence is no longer the constraint for automation

#93
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Neither can many humans... 1) GPT-5 is advertised as "PhD-level intelligence". So, I take OpenAI (and anyone else who advertises their bots with language like this) at their word about the bot's capabilities and constrain the set of humans I use for comparison to those who also have PhD-level intelligence. 2) Any human who has been introduced to long addition will absolutely be able to compute the sum of two whole…

I have a PhD, in mathematics, from a top university. If you give me, say, 100 10-digit numbers to add up and tell me to do the job in my head then I will probably get the answer wrong. Of course, if you give me 100 10-digit numbers to add up and let me use a calculator, or pencil and paper, then I will probably get it right. Same for, say, two 100-digit numbers. (I can probably get that one right without tools if you…

https://i.imgur.com/l2elIAv.png

Difficulty is the amount of digits, small models struggle with 10 digits numbers, gemini and gpt-5 are very good recent models, gemini start failing before 40 digits, GPT-5 (the one by api, the online chat version is worse and I didn't tested it) can do more than 120 digits (at this point it's pointless to test for more).

Re: Model intelligence is no longer the constraint for automation

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming you buy the idea of a post scarcity society and assuming we can separate our long ingrained notion that spending your existence in toil to survive is a moral imperative and not working is deserving of punishment if not death, I personally look forward to a time we can get off the hamster wheel. Most buttons that get pushed by people are buttons not worth spending your existence pushing. This includes an awfu…

Do you really want to live in this "post scarcity" world? With no effort required to meet your needs and desires, what motivation will you have to do anything? Kaczynski's warnings seem more apt with every year that passes.

People dedicate their lives to making realistic paintings despite being able to buy a far more accurate camera for a few hours of work. I’m not hugely convinced that we should worry about work to stay alive and sheltered.

Re: Model intelligence is no longer the constraint for automation

#95
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't see why that's necessary, when it can call a tool. Everyone uses a calculator. A logic problem, it can solve with reasoning, perhaps it's not the smartest but it can solve logic problems. All indications are that it will continue to become smarter.

Simple maths problems are simple logic problem. Here it doesn't even have to come up with a reasoning, it probably already memorised how to solve sums. Yet it fails at that, it shows it cannot solve logic problems if there are too much steps. > All indications are that it will continue to become smarter. I'm not disputing that, every new model score better at my benchmark, but right now, none truly "solve" one of the…

If it can frame the question for the tool, it therefore has the logic (whether that was static recall or deductive).

LLM's struggle with simple maths by nature of their architecture not due to a lack of logic. Yes it struggles with logic questions too but they're not directly related here.

Re: Model intelligence is no longer the constraint for automation

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming you buy the idea of a post scarcity society and assuming we can separate our long ingrained notion that spending your existence in toil to survive is a moral imperative and not working is deserving of punishment if not death, I personally look forward to a time we can get off the hamster wheel. Most buttons that get pushed by people are buttons not worth spending your existence pushing. This includes an awfu…

Do you really want to live in this "post scarcity" world? With no effort required to meet your needs and desires, what motivation will you have to do anything? Kaczynski's warnings seem more apt with every year that passes.

Plenty of weathy people do things, not because they have to, but because they want to

Plenty of retired people carry on doing things too

Re: Model intelligence is no longer the constraint for automation

#97
post #74

> It’s because the bottleneck isn’t in intelligence, but in human tasks: specifying intent and context engineering. So the bottleneck is intelligence. Junior engineers are intelligent enough to understand when they don't understand. They interrogate the intent and context of the tasks they are given. This is intelligence. Solving math questions is not intelligence, computers have been better than humans at that for l…

I'm not sure your argument applies only to AI. Intelligence is certainly not knowing through, say, divine inspiration what another person wants you to do. This bottleneck of "describing the problem" is the same bottleneck faced when working with junior (or senior) engineers, especially in a team. One need only consider the classic of our field, Mythical Man-Month, which is really dedicated to this precise and, in some sense, irresolvable problem -- often it's best to just have one person who understands and ideally first posed the problem do the work, rather than introduce this bottleneck of communication.

It's a difficult and crucial problem, we all agree, but it's a stretch to define intelligence as such to be "describing the problem." Choosing the right problem in the first place (i.e. not just telling person B to do X but selecting the X that in fact is worth pursuing), perhaps, but I don't think that's right either as a definition of intelligence. Indeed, even the best scientists often speak of an "intuition" that drives their choice of problems.

More classical definitions place intelligence in the domain of "means-ends rationality", i.e. given an end to pursue being capable of determining the correct way to do so and carrying it out until completion. A calculator like a hammer is certainly not intelligent in that sense, but I would struggle to see how even an AI skeptic could maintain that state-of-the-art LLMs today are not a qualitative step above calculators according to this measure.

Re: Model intelligence is no longer the constraint for automation

#98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This depends on whether you mean LLMs in the sense of single shot, or LLMs + software built around it. I think a lot of people conflate the two. In our application e use a multi-step check_knowledge_base workflow before and after each LLM request. Pretty much, make a separate LLM request to check the query against the existing context to see if more info is needed, and a second check after generation to see if output…

if an llm is unreliable, then why would another just-as-unreliable llm make it any better?

If a hard drive sometimes fails, why would a raid with multiple hard drives be any more reliable?

"Do task x" and "Is this answer to task x correct?" are two very different prompts and aren't guaranteed to have the same failure modes. They might, but they might not.

Re: Model intelligence is no longer the constraint for automation

#99
post #93
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a PhD, in mathematics, from a top university. If you give me, say, 100 10-digit numbers to add up and tell me to do the job in my head then I will probably get the answer wrong. Of course, if you give me 100 10-digit numbers to add up and let me use a calculator, or pencil and paper, then I will probably get it right. Same for, say, two 100-digit numbers. (I can probably get that one right without tools if you…

https://i.imgur.com/l2elIAv.png Difficulty is the amount of digits, small models struggle with 10 digits numbers, gemini and gpt-5 are very good recent models, gemini start failing before 40 digits, GPT-5 (the one by api, the online chat version is worse and I didn't tested it) can do more than 120 digits (at this point it's pointless to test for more).

My tests of GPT-5 were using the online chat version.

Of course, I only ran it once; I can't at all rule out the possibility that sometimes it gets it wrong. But, again, the same is true of humans.

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