91–97 of 97 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
For sure, but not for that reason; there is currently no one with a plan how to go from current (LLMs) to a better model. It's some 'more focused training' 'better prompting' 'agentic' 'smarter lookups' 'better tooling'. But fundamentally, this model is simply shagged out and it'll get a little better with the above, but the jump everyone is waiting for cannot happen without a new model invention.
No one you know of but I'm sure people are thinking about it. Which reminds me that one of the most obvious failings of LLMs is they never say "I've been thinking about that and have a new idea." The thinking leaning thing needs work.
Well done model routing is a tremendous leap forward to minimize the latency & improve the user experience.
E.g. I love Gemini 2.5 Pro. But it's darn slow (sorry GDM!). I love the latency I'm getting from 4o. The solution? Just combine them under one prompt, with well done model routing.
Is GPT5 router "good enough"? We'll see.
I think OpenAI is a smart company. And Sama is a tremendous leader. They're moving in the right direction.
Yes, GPT-5 is more of an iteration than anything else, and to me this says more about OpenAI than the rest of the industry. However, I think the majority of the improvements over the past year have been difficult to quantify using benchmarks. Users often talk about how certain models "feel" smarter on their particular tasks, and we won't know if the same is true for GPT-5 until people use it for a while. The "GPT-5 w…
Whether it's indicative of patterns beyond OpenAI remains to be seen, but I don't expect much originality from tech execs.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
>With those people being business owners, investors, etc, 100% of the time. How can one run a business by replacing humans, if no humans are left with enough income to buy your products? I suspect that the desire to "replace humans" runs far deeper than just shortsighted business wants.
Two things. One, a lot of human jobs have been replaced by machines before. Refrigerators eliminated the jobs of all those guys who used to deliver ice for your icebox every day. And so on. Those were real human beings and I'm sure many of them had families. There was real pain but it was ultimately probably a huge net positive. On a much larger scale, the microcomputer revolution of ~1975-present certainly does not…
The fallacy here is in supposing that the mechanisms that kept those people from starving in the 1920s still exists and remains effective, that the "people replaced" have some other industry to move into. But we live in a post-industry nation... all that god offshored. There is nothing more to make, or build, or repair, not to any scale that would employ everyone meaningfully. And while I suppose some like you imagine that we'll all sit around day trading and speculating on bitcoin for a living, this means that places like China would have to manufacture everything and grow everything and that they'd be willing to do that so that they could have the bitcoin tablescraps you toss to them from time to time.
I've heard your argument all my life, starting all the way back in the late 1980s when the government was first talking about making China the "most favored nation" status that would permit it. Maybe back then people could still believe it but now it rings hollow as hell.
>Two, I am not the biggest fan of capitalism,
I am. I am a big fan, when it's used well everyone benefits. But you still have to police it a little to deter fraud, and we've all been the victims of the biggest fraud ever. And we can't even talk about it here, hurts too many feelings.
>hey will shift that money to other expenditures: on AI tech, humans doing other jobs
Or, maybe instead of shifting to "humans doing other jobs", someone runs the numbers and discovers there are still 30 years worth of profit (or even just 10 years) selling the product to Europe or whereever even if they don't hire anymore humans, and since this exceeds their projected career duration, there's no need to look past that very distant horizon. And it doesn't matter that here or there you're even correct (that some companies might shift to "humans doing other jobs", because I only have to be partially correct and you have to be entirely correct... if some companies do it as I hint, then those companies outcompete your companies which go under, and it still results in massive unemployment.
The fixes for all of these things are simple, clear, and effective, but are politically untenable. Even if people could have been eventually persuaded that they were necessary, those people are now outvoted by many more people who have been brought in who have no loyalty to this country (and it really applies to many countries, not just the one I'm in) and would cockblock the fixes.
Am I right to say that "AGI" was just...cancelled again? Did we just get scammed right in front of our eyes with an overhyped release and what is now an underwhelming model if the point was that GPT-5 was supposed to be trustworthy enough for serious use-cases and it can't even count or reason about letters? So much for the "AGI has been achieved internally" nonsense with the VCs and paid shills on X/Twitter bullshit…
How were you still eating that?