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Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

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Re: Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

#91

Post by [deleted] »

vevoe wrote: post #24
reedf1 wrote: post #9

I think it is possible that the widespread introduction of ChatGPT will cause a brief hiatus on hiring due to the inelasticity of demand. For the sake of argument , imagine that ChatGPT makes your average developer 4x more productive. It will take a while before the expectation becomes that 4x more work is delivered. That 4x more work is scheduled in sprints. That 4x more features are developed. That 4x more projects…

That makes sense to me. There's another post on the front page right now talking about shortening the work week (I haven't read it yet tbf, so I could be wrong about it's content) because of AI. People have been talking about shorter work weeks for a long time now, it just doesn't happen. What does happen is we get more done and the GDP goes even higher.

[deleted]

Re: Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

#93

Post by harvey9 »

xivzgrev wrote: post #63
bachmeier wrote: post #34

Okay. It also coincides with the end of the post-pandemic hiring boom and the UK bank rate going from 0.1% to 5.25%. It's kind of funny that reliable data analysis has never been part of the AI hype when you consider that AI is used for data analysis.

Yes, but overall job ads are up. Pay is going up. But specifically entry level is down significantly since Nov 2022. All of your points - interest rates, post pandemic hiring boom would apply to market as a whole. Not saying it’s causation like the article claims, but there’s at least some correlation trend.

Job ads complicated further by firms posting fictional jobs to test the market or as a misleading market signal.

Re: Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

#94

Post by [deleted] »

madaxe_again wrote: post #85
xivzgrev wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but overall job ads are up. Pay is going up. But specifically entry level is down significantly since Nov 2022. All of your points - interest rates, post pandemic hiring boom would apply to market as a whole. Not saying it’s causation like the article claims, but there’s at least some correlation trend.

An awful lot of graduate positions in the U.K. are things like customer service, account management, paralegal, data analysis. These categories have seen broad application of AI tools: - CS, you’ll most likely talk to an LLM for first tier support these days. - Account management comprises pressing the flesh (human required) and responding to emails - the latter, AMs have seen their workload slashed, so it stands to…

[deleted]

Re: Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

#95

Post by Barrin92 »

ninetyninenine wrote: post #59
bachmeier wrote: post #34

Okay. It also coincides with the end of the post-pandemic hiring boom and the UK bank rate going from 0.1% to 5.25%. It's kind of funny that reliable data analysis has never been part of the AI hype when you consider that AI is used for data analysis.

Your comment also lacks analysis. This is an observational study there is no way to pinpoint causation. Yeah it can correlate with the end of a post pandemic hiring boom, and it can correlate with the bank rate. But no matter what it also correlates with the rise of AI. All are true and causation cannot be established for any of the 3 through just an observational study.

>This is an observational study there is no way to pinpoint causation.

Given that AI tools are only really used for white collar work, but white collar professions have not been declining faster than entry level jobs in hospitality, vocational jobs, nursing or transportation (all of which are down), this gives you a pretty decent natural control group.

The whole debate about bifurcation of the labour market, that entry level coders are having a harder time than they used to, precedes even the pandemic or recent economic woes.

Re: Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

#98

Post by eru »

Analemma_ wrote: post #83
captainbland wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In this case it was widely publicised that interest rates went up to try to bring inflation down (which was significantly above the 2% target). Growth was weak to unremarkable although the hiring market was good for job seekers at the time shortly before the interest rises were introduced.

Growth in the US, and Europe to a lesser degree, was very strong in this period, so it was natural that their interest rates went up. And when interest rates go up in the UK's two primary trading partners, it doesn't really have any choice but to hike rates with them, lest people flee the pound and make inflation even worse. It was unfortunate that this had to happen in a weak growth regime, but the British economy i…

Alas, it would be better if the Bank of England had a nominal GDP level target, and then they could let inflation, exchange rate and interest rates be what they may in order to reach the nominal spending target.

Re: Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

#99

Post by gruez »

ttul wrote: post #31

I run a mature software company that is being driven for profit (we are out of the fantastic future phase and solidly in the “make money” phase). Even with all the pressure to cut costs and increase automation, the most valuable use of LLMs is to make the software developers work more effectively, producing the feature improvements that customers want so that we can ensure customers will renew and upgrade. And to the…

>I’d say that the general drift is that the humans who were doing those low-level jobs have a chance to step up into jobs requiring higher-level intelligence where humans have a chance to really shine. And companies are competing not by just getting rid of salaries, but by providing much better service by being able to afford to have more higher-tier people on the payroll. And by higher-tier, I don’t necessarily mean more expensive. It can be the same people that were doing the low-level jobs; they just now can spend their human-level intelligence doing more interesting and challenging work.

That was the narrative last year (ie. that low performers have the most to gain from AI, and therefore AI would reduce inequality), but new evidence seems to be pointing in the opposite direction: https://archive.is/tBcXE

>More recent findings have cast doubt on this vision, however. They instead suggest a future in which high-flyers fly still higher—and the rest are left behind. In complex tasks such as research and management, new evidence indicates that high performers are best positioned to work with AI (see table). Evaluating the output of models requires expertise and good judgment. Rather than narrowing disparities, AI is likely to widen workforce divides, much like past technological revolutions.

Re: Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

#100

Post by bunderbunder »

bachmeier wrote: post #34

Okay. It also coincides with the end of the post-pandemic hiring boom and the UK bank rate going from 0.1% to 5.25%. It's kind of funny that reliable data analysis has never been part of the AI hype when you consider that AI is used for data analysis.

> It's kind of funny that reliable data analysis has never been part of the AI hype when you consider that AI is used for data analysis.

If you've ever tried to use AI to help with this kind of analysis, you might find this to be more inevitable than it is funny.

It's really, really, really good at confidently jumping to hasty conclusions and confirmation bias. Which perhaps shouldn't be surprising when you consider that it was largely trained on the Internet's proverbial global comments section.

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