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DeepSeek R2 launch stalled as CEO balks at progress

reuters.com

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Re: DeepSeek R2 launch stalled as CEO balks at progress

#91

Post by WJW »

tw1984 wrote: post #77
WJW wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China doesn't want Taiwan for the chip making plants, but because they consider its existence to be an ongoing armed rebellion against the "rightful" rulers. Getting the fabs intact would be nice, but it's not the main objective. The USA doesn't want to lose Taiwan because of the chip making plants, and a little bit because it is beneficial to surround their geopolitical enemies with a giant ring of allies.

> China doesn't want Taiwan for the chip making plants, but because they consider its existence to be an ongoing armed rebellion against the "rightful" rulers. that is what the CCP tells you and its own people. the truth is taiwan is just the symbol of US presence in western pacific. getting taiwan back means the permanent withdrawal of US influence in the western pacific region and the offical end of US global domin…

I think that is basically what I said already? What is ensuring historical positioning if not the righting of (perceived) old wrongs?

In any case it's clear that it is not the fabs that China cares about when it is talking about (re)conquering Taiwan.

Re: DeepSeek R2 launch stalled as CEO balks at progress

#92

Post by JKCalhoun »

Workaccount2 wrote: post #83
diggan wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would love to see the system/user prompts involved, if possible. Personally I get it to write the same code I'd produce, which obviously I think is OK code, but seems other's experience differs a lot from my own so curious to understand why. I've iterated a lot on my system prompt so could be as easy as that.

The biggest reason I use Gemini is because it can still get stuff done at 100k context. The other models start wearing out at 30k and are done by 50k.

New to me: is more context worse? Is there an ideal context length that maps to a bell curve or something?

Re: DeepSeek R2 launch stalled as CEO balks at progress

#93

Post by torginus »

teruakohatu wrote: post #3

The title of the article is "DeepSeek R2 launch stalled as CEO balks at progress" but the body of the article says launch stalled because there is a lack of GPU capacity due to export restrictions, not because a lack of progress. The body does not even mention the word "progress". I can't imagine demand would be greater for R2 than for R1 unless it was a major leap ahead. Maybe R2 is going to be a larger/less perform…

I am a bit sceptical about whether this whole thing is true at all. This article links to another, which happens to be behind a paywall, saying 'GPU export sanctions are working' is a message a lot of US administration, people and investors want to hear, so I think there's a good chance that unsubstantiated speculation and wishful thinking is presented as fact here.

Re: DeepSeek R2 launch stalled as CEO balks at progress

#94

Post by brokegrammer »

diggan wrote: post #86
Workaccount2 wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The biggest reason I use Gemini is because it can still get stuff done at 100k context. The other models start wearing out at 30k and are done by 50k.

The biggest reason I avoid Gemini (and all of Google's models I've tried) is because I cannot get them to produce the same code I'd produce myself, while with OpenAI's models it's fairly trivial. There is something deeper in the model that seemingly can be steered/programmed with the system/user prompts and it still produces kind of shitty code for some reason. Or I just haven't found the right way of prompting Googl…

I'm having the same issue with Gemini as soon as the context length exceeds 50k-ish. At that point, it starts to blurp out random code of terrible quality, even with clear instructions. It would often mix up various APIs. I spend a lot of time instructing it about not writing such code, with plenty of fewshot examples, but it doesn't seem to work. It's like it gets "confused".

The large context length is a huge advantage, but it doesn't seem to be able to use it effectively. Would you say that OpenAI models don't suffer from this problem?

Re: DeepSeek R2 launch stalled as CEO balks at progress

#96

Post by layer8 »

energy123 wrote: post #74
layer8 wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not impossible, but also highly nontrivial. Apart from the actual AI implementation, power supply might be a challenge. And there is a multitude of anti-drone technology being continuously developed. Already today, an autonomous drone would have to deal with RF jamming and GPS jamming, which means it’s easily defeated unless it has the ability to navigate purely visually. Drones also tend to be limited to good w…

In terms of countermeasures, what's the difference between having a human drone pilot and having an AI (computer vision plus control) do it over cloud? I know I'm moving the goalposts away from edge compute, but if we are discussing the relevance of GPU compute for warfare it seems relevant.

Assuming human-level AI capabilities, not much of a difference, obviously. But I also don’t think that human operators are a bottleneck currently. Cost, failure rate, and technical limitations of drones is. If you are alluding to superhuman AI capabilities, that’s highly speculative as well with regard to what is needed for drone piloting, and also unclear how large the benefits of that would be in terms of actual operational success rate.

Re: DeepSeek R2 launch stalled as CEO balks at progress

#97

Post by FooBarWidget »

archon1410 wrote: post #48
roenxi wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Presumably there is a CEO statement somewhere. If DeepSeek said May, but it is almost July, that would call for some comment from them. Although I'd like to know the source for the "this is because of chip sanctions" angle. SMIC is claiming they can manufacture at 5nm and a large number of chips at 7nm can get get the same amount of compute of anything Nvidia produces. It wouldn't be market-leading competitive but de…

> If DeepSeek said May It is pretty strange that DeepSeek didn't say May anywhere, that was also a Reuters report based on "three people familiar with the company".[1] DeepSeek itself did not respond and did not make any claims about the timeline, ever. [1]: https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/d...

Welcome to most China news. Many "well-documented" China "facts" are in fact cases like this: the media taking rumors or straight up fabricating things for clicks, and then self-referencing (or different media referencing each other in a circle) to put up the guise of reliable news.

This is why we need to be critical of journalists nowadays. No longer are they the Fourth Column, protecting society and democracy by providing accurate information.

Re: DeepSeek R2 launch stalled as CEO balks at progress

#98

Post by diggan »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #92
Workaccount2 wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The biggest reason I use Gemini is because it can still get stuff done at 100k context. The other models start wearing out at 30k and are done by 50k.

New to me: is more context worse? Is there an ideal context length that maps to a bell curve or something?

> New to me: is more context worse?

Yes, definitely. For every model I've used and/or tested, the more context there is, the worse the output, even within the context limits.

When I use chat UIs (which admittedly is less and less), I never let the chat go beyond one of my messages and one response from the LLM. If something is wrong with the response, I figure out what I need to change with my prompt and start new chat/edit the first message and retry, until it works. Any time I've tried to "No, what I meant was ..." or "Great, now change ..." the responses drop sharply in quality.

Re: DeepSeek R2 launch stalled as CEO balks at progress

#100

Post by crazygringo »

sschueller wrote: post #66
teruakohatu wrote: post #3

The title of the article is "DeepSeek R2 launch stalled as CEO balks at progress" but the body of the article says launch stalled because there is a lack of GPU capacity due to export restrictions, not because a lack of progress. The body does not even mention the word "progress". I can't imagine demand would be greater for R2 than for R1 unless it was a major leap ahead. Maybe R2 is going to be a larger/less perform…

> lack of GPU capacity due to export restrictions Human progress that benefits everyone being stalled by the few and powerful who want to keep their moats. Sad world we live in.

It's not about people wanting to keep it in moats.

It's about China being expansionist, actively preparing to invade Taiwan, and generally becoming an increasing military threat that does not respect the national integrity of other states.

The US is fine with other countries having AI if the countries "play nice" with others. Nobody is limiting GPU's in France or Thailand.

This is very specific to China's behavior and stated goals.

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