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Andrej Karpathy's talk on the future of the industry

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Re: Andrej Karpathy's talk on the future of the industry

#91

Post by imiric »

bcrosby95 wrote: post #65

I might be wrong, but it seems like some people are misinterpreting what is being said here. Software 3.0 isn't about using AI to write code. It's about using AI instead of code. So not Human -> AI -> Create Code -> Compile Code -> Code Runs -> The Magic Happens. Instead, it's Human -> AI -> The Magic Happens.

So... Who builds the AI?

This is why I think the AI industry is mostly smoke and mirrors. If these tools are really as revolutionary as they claim they are, then they should be able to build better versions of themselves, and we should be seeing exponential improvements of their capabilities. Yet in the last year or so we've seen marginal improvements based mainly on increasing the scale and quality of the data they're trained on, and the scale of deployments, with some clever engineering work thrown in.

Re: Andrej Karpathy's talk on the future of the industry

#92

Post by Velorivox »

jolan wrote: post #39
jckahn wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How so? That sounds a completely realistic use of NotebookLM.

I think he meant the audio output itself sounds like an infomercial. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfr4BP4V1R8

During the early days of NotebookLM, I got it to generate this interesting look behind the scenes of how the script is made:

https://vocaroo.com/1nZBz5hdjwEh

As a bonus its hilarious in its own right.

Re: Andrej Karpathy's talk on the future of the industry

#93

Post by bgwalter »

Frummy wrote: post #51
kaladin-jasnah wrote: post #43

Tangentially related, but it boggles my mind this guy was badmephisto, who made a quite famous cubing tutorial website that I spent plenty of time on in my childhood.

Totally not a supervillain "Q: What does your name (badmephisto) mean? A: I've had this name for a really long time. I used to be a big fan of Diablo2, so when I had to create my email address username on hotmail, i decided to use Mephisto as my username. But of course Mephisto was already taken, so I tried Mephisto1, Mephisto2, all the way up to about 9, and all was taken. So then I thought... "hmmm, what kind of ch…

> Since Mephisto (the brother of Diablo)

Unbelievable. Perhaps some techies should read Goethe's Faust instead of Lord of the Rings.

Re: Andrej Karpathy's talk on the future of the industry

#94

Post by trgn »

imiric wrote: post #91
bcrosby95 wrote: post #65

I might be wrong, but it seems like some people are misinterpreting what is being said here. Software 3.0 isn't about using AI to write code. It's about using AI instead of code. So not Human -> AI -> Create Code -> Compile Code -> Code Runs -> The Magic Happens. Instead, it's Human -> AI -> The Magic Happens.

So... Who builds the AI? This is why I think the AI industry is mostly smoke and mirrors. If these tools are really as revolutionary as they claim they are, then they should be able to build better versions of themselves, and we should be seeing exponential improvements of their capabilities. Yet in the last year or so we've seen marginal improvements based mainly on increasing the scale and quality of the data they'…

> who builds the ai

3 to 5 companies iso of the hundreds of thousands who sell software now

Re: Andrej Karpathy's talk on the future of the industry

#95

Post by yusina »

> I think broadly speaking, software has not changed much at such a fundamental level for 70 years.

I love Andrej, but come on.

Writing essentially punch cards 70 years ago, writing C 40 years ago and writing Go or Typescript or Haskell 10 years ago, these are all very different activities.

Re: Andrej Karpathy's talk on the future of the industry

#96

Post by pudiklubi »

swyx wrote: post #40
pudiklubi wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

so you took my transcript and put it behind a newsletter sub? haha. just share them!

not quite, i compiled the slides within a few hours of the talk yesterday well before your transcript was available. the slides are my main output/contribution. a full slides+transcript is too long for substack. i've linked your transcript prominently for people to find, and used it to fix slide ordering because twitter people took terrible notes for the purpose of exact talk reconstruction. i exepct YC to prioritize…

gotcha. def a good idea! i'm only a bit wary of making all of this a bit too put together, as to create an official source before there is one.

that being said, HN is a negative place, and not what I was trying to go for. thank you for your work with the slides!

Re: Andrej Karpathy's talk on the future of the industry

#98

Post by koakuma-chan »

arkj wrote: post #54

>Software 2.0 are the weights which program neural networks. >I think it's a fundamental change, is that neural networks became programmable with large libraries... And in my mind, it's worth giving it the designation of a Software 3.0. I think it's a bit early to change your mind here. We love your 2.0, let's wait for some more time till th e dust settles so we can see clearly and up the revision number. In fact I'm…

"revision number" doesn't matter. He is just saying that traditional software's behaviour ("software 1.0") is defined by its code, whereas outputs produced by a model ("software 2.0") are driven by its training data. But to be fair I stopped reading after that, so can't tell you what "software 3.0" is.

Re: Andrej Karpathy's talk on the future of the industry

#99

Post by dang »

pudiklubi wrote: post #96
swyx wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

not quite, i compiled the slides within a few hours of the talk yesterday well before your transcript was available. the slides are my main output/contribution. a full slides+transcript is too long for substack. i've linked your transcript prominently for people to find, and used it to fix slide ordering because twitter people took terrible notes for the purpose of exact talk reconstruction. i exepct YC to prioritize…

gotcha. def a good idea! i'm only a bit wary of making all of this a bit too put together, as to create an official source before there is one. that being said, HN is a negative place, and not what I was trying to go for. thank you for your work with the slides!

Let's all make HN a less negative place.

(As a step towards making it a non-negative place.)

Re: Andrej Karpathy's talk on the future of the industry

#100

Post by no_wizard »

bix6 wrote: post #66
no_wizard wrote: post #9

A large contention of this essay (which I’m assuming the talk is based on or is transcribed from depending on order) I do think that open source models will eventually catch up to closed source ones, or at least be “good enough” and I also think you can already see how LLMs are augmenting knowledge work. I don’t think it’s the 4th wave of pioneering a new dawn of civilization but it’s clear LLMs will remain useful wh…

Why would open source outpace? Isn’t there way more money in the closed source ones and therefore more incentive to work on them?

I didn’t say outpace, but I do believe the collective nature of open source will allow it to catch up, much like it did with browser tech, and at which point you’ll see a shift of resources toward that by major companies. It’s a collective works thing. I think it also is attractive to work on in open source, much like Linux or web browsers (hence the comparison to one) and that will also help it along over time.

I stick by my general thesis that OSS will eventually catch up or the gap will be so small only frontier applications will benefit from using the most advanced models

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