91–100 of 242 posts
Its a shame that your standard futurologist always the most fancyful. Talks of exponentials unabated by physics or social problems. As soon as AI starts to "properly" affect the economy, it will cause huge unemployment. Most of the financial world is based on an economy with people spending cash. If they are unemployed, there is no cash. Financing works because banks "print" money, that is, they make up money and loa…
Communism here we come!
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It would not be a reversion to 2020. If I were a rogue superhuman AI I'd hide my rogueness, wait until humans integrate me into most critical industries (food and energy production, sanitation, electric grid, etc.), and _then_ go rogue. They could still pull the plug, but it would take them back to 1700 (except much worse, because all easily accessible resources have been exploited, and access is now much harder).
No, if you were a rogue AI you would wait even longer until you had a near perfect chance of winning. Unless there was some risk of humans rallying and winning in spite of your presenting no unambiguous threat to them (but that is unlikely and would probably be easy for you to manage and mitigate.)
I think the big thing that people never mention is, where will these evil AIs escape to ? Another huge data center with squillions of GPUs and coolers and all the rest is the only option. It's not like it is going to be in our TV remotes or floating about in the air. They need huge compute, so I think the risk of an escaping AI is basically very close to zero, and if we have a "rogue" AI we can literally pull the plu…
It would not be a reversion to 2020. If I were a rogue superhuman AI I'd hide my rogueness, wait until humans integrate me into most critical industries (food and energy production, sanitation, electric grid, etc.), and _then_ go rogue. They could still pull the plug, but it would take them back to 1700 (except much worse, because all easily accessible resources have been exploited, and access is now much harder).
Physical books still do exist
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So wild. The Republican party has hard-pivoted to a strong, centralized federal government and their base just came along for the ride.
The strong federal government that bans regulation?
Its a shame that your standard futurologist always the most fancyful. Talks of exponentials unabated by physics or social problems. As soon as AI starts to "properly" affect the economy, it will cause huge unemployment. Most of the financial world is based on an economy with people spending cash. If they are unemployed, there is no cash. Financing works because banks "print" money, that is, they make up money and loa…
AI meaningfuloy replacing people is a huge "what if" scenario still. It is sort of laughable that people treat it as a given.
But if "AI" increases productivity by 10% in an industry, it will tend to reduce demand for employees. look at say internet shop vs bricks and mortar: you need far less staff to service a much larger customer base.
manufacture for example, there is a constant drive to automate more and more in mass production. If you compare car building now vs 30 years ago. Or look at raspberrypi production now vs 5 years ago. They are producing more Pis than ever with roughly the same amount of staff.
If that "10%" productivity increase happens across the service sector, then in the UK that's something like a loss of 8% of _total_ jobs gone. Its more complex than that, but you get the picture.
Syria fell into civil war roughly the same time unemployment jumped: https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/SYR/syr...
"Manna", by Marshall Brain, remains relevant.[1] That's a bottom-up view, where more and more jobs are taken over by some kind of AI. "AI 2027" is more top-down.
A practical view: Amazon is trying very hard to automate their warehouse operations. Their warehouses have been using robots for years, and more types are being added. Amazon reached 1.6 million employees in 2020, and now they're down to 1.5 million.[2] That number is going to drop further. Probably by a lot.
Once Amazon has done it, everybody else who handles large numbers of boxes will catch up. That includes restocking retail stores. The first major application of semi-humanoid robots may be shelf stocking. Robots can have much better awareness of what's on the shelves. Being connected to the store's inventory system is a big win. And the handling isn't very complicated. The robots might even talk to the customers. The robots know exactly what's on Aisle 3, unlike many minimum wage employees.
[1] https://marshallbrain.com/manna
[2] https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/number...
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That is not true. It bans regulation at the state and local level, not at the federal level.
Ok. From the party of “states rights” that’s a bit hypocritical of them. I mean- they applauded Dodds which basically did the exact opposite of this- forcing states to regulate abortion rather than a uniform federal standard.
I want to bet 10 million that this won’t happen if anyone wants to go against my position. Best bet ever. If i lose, i don’t have to pay anyways.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It would not be a reversion to 2020. If I were a rogue superhuman AI I'd hide my rogueness, wait until humans integrate me into most critical industries (food and energy production, sanitation, electric grid, etc.), and _then_ go rogue. They could still pull the plug, but it would take them back to 1700 (except much worse, because all easily accessible resources have been exploited, and access is now much harder).
No, if you were a rogue AI you would wait even longer until you had a near perfect chance of winning. Unless there was some risk of humans rallying and winning in spite of your presenting no unambiguous threat to them (but that is unlikely and would probably be easy for you to manage and mitigate.)