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Elon Musk is wrong about GDP

timharford.com

91–100 of 116 posts

Re: Elon Musk is wrong about GDP

#91
post #49
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah, it's dumb. He's saying a dumb thing because he doesn't understand the use and importance of it (and also its limitations). We (economist) count everything because excluding an economic agent that has a massive effect on the economy, is such a intellectually foreign concept that we don't even consider it. There's no rational honest argument that would make sense. BTW, government expenditure only appears in the GD…

>BTW, government expenditure only appears in the GDP calculations by expenditure. It doesn't appear in the income nor in the production. The later one the one you are actually thinking of. I am not sure against what you argue exactly. My point is that if we use GDP as a metric of economy strength, then it's easy for the government to cheat it by fueling it's spending by printed money (ah, sorry, the reputable economi…

Ok, here's another neat trick about the GDP. We do not measure growth of the GDP in nominal values, but real values, aka, we adjust for inflation (yes, this is the _only_ case where you can actually "adjust for inflation" and will be valid). We use something called deflator which allows us to ignore the variances of value in the currency due changes in monetary policy.

So, the government can "print money" (that's not how it works), which would cause inflation (aka, the currency loses value), so the effect on the real GDP is muted. There's another thing that happens when the government goes into a spending spree which is "crowding out", basically the government buys what households and business would have bought and therefore they don't buy anymore, so the effect of the GDP is muted. There are many other things that happen also due such actions that would actually make the GDP to contract!

Anyways, reckless fiscal policy alone doesn't "manipulate the GPD values". Economies do not work in a vacuum. There's tons of interactions that are not explained because it's too complex to do so without the previous knowledge, to do so in a short amount of hours would be very dangerous because you would think you understand things that you really don't understand. Take a course of macroeconomics, of about 100 hours, and it would only be the start. Then industrial economics, economic policy, taxation, international economics, monetary policy, monetary economics, you get it?

Re: Elon Musk is wrong about GDP

#92
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The question if the goods basket that is used to define inflation actually reflects reality is valid though! Why? You're only trying to determine the change in value of the currency. What specific items are in the basket shouldn't matter all that much as long as it is a broad enough sample to be able to separate out the change in value of the goods from the change in value of the currency, along with it being compr…

> Implying that an urban dollar isn't the same as a rural dollar? The same dollar buys me a lot more food and accomodation in rural areas. To give you an example, average rent for 60 m² in Munich will easily run to 1200-1500€ a month, and that's net (so you got to add heating and utilities on top). In Eastern Germany, you can get 80 m² for 300€ a month. A trip to the grocery store is about 100€ in Munich, maybe 50-60…

[deleted]

Re: Elon Musk is wrong about GDP

#94
post #52

Elon is definitely wrong. The author seems to be advocating running the economy on vibes, however. > The real problem with GDP ... is that it tempts us to view all human progress as an amorphous score, which we can start maximising just as soon as we fix whatever we think is wrong with how that score is calculated. No! The problem with GDP isn't that it's a score, it's that it's a BAD score. We know whats wrong with…

Beyond Wikipedia, more generally, it doesn't account for consumer surplus in any exchange, which should be the only quantity that matters if we were to build a metric that means something. Unfortunately, that's much easier said than done.

Re: Elon Musk is wrong about GDP

#95
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The question if the goods basket that is used to define inflation actually reflects reality is valid though! Why? You're only trying to determine the change in value of the currency. What specific items are in the basket shouldn't matter all that much as long as it is a broad enough sample to be able to separate out the change in value of the goods from the change in value of the currency, along with it being compr…

> Implying that an urban dollar isn't the same as a rural dollar? The same dollar buys me a lot more food and accomodation in rural areas. To give you an example, average rent for 60 m² in Munich will easily run to 1200-1500€ a month, and that's net (so you got to add heating and utilities on top). In Eastern Germany, you can get 80 m² for 300€ a month. A trip to the grocery store is about 100€ in Munich, maybe 50-60…

> The same dollar buys me a lot more food and accomodation in rural areas.

That's because food and accommodations are often less valuable in rural areas. Supply and demand, as they say. But that is outside of the scope of inflation. As before, inflation seeks to measure the value of the currency itself, which also fluctuates in value just like everything else.

> Unfortunately, collective wage agreements, UI benefits and pensions are federally the same across Germany

Theoretically the value of the dollar could differ from place to place like food and houses – value is just arbitrary human opinion, after all – but as currency moves freely, everyone tends to agree on its value across entire countries (and usually the entire world). In practice, you'd also find accommodations and food settling on the same value across entire countries if we had magical portals that could move them to and fro on a whim like we can with currency.

But it seems like what you are really thinking of is a cost of living index. Usually those are prepared on a regional basis for the reasons you have described. Inflation is decidedly not intended to be a cost of living index and there is no reason to turn it into a cost of living index. We already have that – not to mention that we also need to understand inflation.

You may be also implying that some people use the wrong tool for the job (i.e. trying to use inflation as a cost of living index), but in that case the problem isn't that the tool broken, the problem is that the people are broken. The question then is not "What will it take to modify this screwdriver so that it is better at driving nails?" The question is "Why the fuck aren't you using a hammer?"

Re: Elon Musk is wrong about GDP

#96
post #24

I've talked to a few economists about this and non agree with Elon on this. The biggest issue one person raised is how do you separate out government spending form GDP? If a US town has a big military base, does that mean the entire towns' GDP is just government spending so ignore it? The government essentially pays for everyone's salary in the town. Where do you draw the line at what is government spending and priva…

I don't know why people are entertaining this. The Gross Domestic Product by definition measures every expenditure, income or production of a specific territory. If you exclude government effects in the economy, you get into so many troubles.

Because they want to make the correct argument that there is moderate waste on the budget when measured in the traditional sense of government paying more than a decent negotiator would payand a staggering amount of waste when measured as utility to the people paying the taxes vs alternatives. Saying gdp is wrong is a fail way to do this.

Re: Elon Musk is wrong about GDP

#97
post #91
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>BTW, government expenditure only appears in the GDP calculations by expenditure. It doesn't appear in the income nor in the production. The later one the one you are actually thinking of. I am not sure against what you argue exactly. My point is that if we use GDP as a metric of economy strength, then it's easy for the government to cheat it by fueling it's spending by printed money (ah, sorry, the reputable economi…

Ok, here's another neat trick about the GDP. We do not measure growth of the GDP in nominal values, but real values, aka, we adjust for inflation (yes, this is the _only_ case where you can actually "adjust for inflation" and will be valid). We use something called deflator which allows us to ignore the variances of value in the currency due changes in monetary policy. So, the government can "print money" (that's not…

>we adjust for inflation

Using a very debatable inflation metric (e.g. should deflationary technological advancements in electronics manufacturing boost the "real GDP" metric?), which is quite muted (even with the post-COVID spike!) on top of that because of the "exorbitant privilege".

>that's not how it works

Suuuure. The recent examples of collusion between banks, the government, and the central bank to quickly increase amount of base money is not outright "money printing", just benign "quantitative easing", nothing to see here.

>crowding out

This works only when government engages in "fair" and competitive debt issuance. But we see a different picture, government bonds are counted as bank reserves and even worse banks do not even have to apply the mark-to-market accounting rules for them in some cases. And everyone knows that the Fed immediately will ride to the rescue on the first sign of trouble in the bond market as was done during not-QE.

>reckless fiscal policy alone doesn't "manipulate the GPD values"

Alone? No. But it certainly boosts GDP (both real and nominal) in the near term and makes the economy look better than it really is. It's the same story as in China where they had massive "infrastructure investments" to artificially stimulate the economy and make GDP numbers look good. We can see in the real time how it unravels.

Re: Elon Musk is wrong about GDP

#98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As one of Elon's ex-fan's (or at least had a generally positive opinion of him) like I suspect many of us here once were, it is astonishing how consistently wrong and ignorant he has been, and it has gotten worse year over year. I think there is a legitimate possibility he fried/is frying his brain on Ketamine.

As someone who's never been an Elon fan, nah, he's been fairly consistently confused about basically everything for as long as he's been a public figure, but his fans were willing to turn a blind eye to a certain point, because they found his stuff aesthetically appealing.

Not at all. I’ve been following Elon for a long, long time. Since he was the PayPal guy who was going to blow his fortune buying Russian rockets.

He was absolutely 100% focused on his ventures back then. His political awakening has been slowly happening over the last 10 years, at least his public persona.

There was no “turning a blind eye” when I invested in Tesla when the Dragon capsule first docked with the ISS, in 2012. I figured if this intelligent person can revolutionise the space industry, he can do the same with the car industry.

He has absolutely changed.

Re: Elon Musk is wrong about GDP

#99
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Implying that an urban dollar isn't the same as a rural dollar? The same dollar buys me a lot more food and accomodation in rural areas. To give you an example, average rent for 60 m² in Munich will easily run to 1200-1500€ a month, and that's net (so you got to add heating and utilities on top). In Eastern Germany, you can get 80 m² for 300€ a month. A trip to the grocery store is about 100€ in Munich, maybe 50-60…

> The same dollar buys me a lot more food and accomodation in rural areas. That's because food and accommodations are often less valuable in rural areas. Supply and demand, as they say. But that is outside of the scope of inflation. As before, inflation seeks to measure the value of the currency itself, which also fluctuates in value just like everything else. > Unfortunately, collective wage agreements, UI benefits…

> As before, inflation seeks to measure the value of the currency itself, which also fluctuates in value just like everything else.

In the end the root problem is that both the EU and US suffer from having one currency for wildly different markets, which is causing a lot of issues.

> You may be also implying that some people use the wrong tool for the job (i.e. trying to use inflation as a cost of living index), but in that case the problem isn't that the tool broken, the problem is that the people are broken. The question then is not "What will it take to modify this screwdriver so that it is better at driving nails?" The question is "Why the fuck aren't you using a hammer?"

Yup, that's the second problem. "Inflation" is the _only_ tool other than stonk market indices that's being used by politicians, media and central banks to judge "how is the economy?" and derive consequences, but as shown it's much too coarse of a hammer.

Re: Elon Musk is wrong about GDP

#100
post #97
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, here's another neat trick about the GDP. We do not measure growth of the GDP in nominal values, but real values, aka, we adjust for inflation (yes, this is the _only_ case where you can actually "adjust for inflation" and will be valid). We use something called deflator which allows us to ignore the variances of value in the currency due changes in monetary policy. So, the government can "print money" (that's not…

>we adjust for inflation Using a very debatable inflation metric (e.g. should deflationary technological advancements in electronics manufacturing boost the "real GDP" metric?), which is quite muted (even with the post-COVID spike!) on top of that because of the "exorbitant privilege". >that's not how it works Suuuure. The recent examples of collusion between banks, the government, and the central bank to quickly inc…

> Using a very debatable inflation metric

No, there's no debate in using a deflator. The deflator only takes into account monetary effects on the currency. Why there isn't one? Because nobody knows that thing exists! GDP deflators are calculated and used around the world by non-partisan. And even when partisanship is involved, the people discussing it [0] have the knowledge to be able to discuss it.

> The recent examples of collusion between banks, the government, and the central bank to quickly increase amount of base money is not outright "money printing", just benign "quantitative easing", nothing to see here.

Ok dude, you have an obvious ax to grind. I guess expecting actual constructive economic debate was my misinterpretation.

[0]: https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-econom...

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