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The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

mohitdagarwal.substack.com

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Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#91

Post by boroboro4 »

adventured wrote: post #38
crote wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same way they lost the crypo mining market. They are losing their biggest customers to custom in-house silicon, and smaller orders are going to compete with a market being flooded by superfluous hardware from companies which either went bust due the the AI bubble shrinking, or went bust because they weren't able to compete with the big fish.

The AI market will be drastically larger in 10-15 years, not smaller. The bubble aspects of the present will be trivial compared to the long-term result, as with the dotcom bubble. Google all by itself is worth more today than all the combined dotcoms in existence in 1999.

Now scale it by M2 money supply (or gold price if you will). Will paint completely different picture.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#92

Post by n_ary »

fnordpiglet wrote: post #6
ivape wrote: post #5

Interesting, Marvell is actually down over 50% this year. I just don't understand the bear case at all. I'm a nobody and I'm still willing to buy a $1500 gpu, and that GPU still can't do what the cloud does. The next $1500 gpu probably can't either. It feels like we're over thinking this. The hardware roll-out is all there is imho. Jensen has mentioned he sees Nvidia being a 10 trillion-dollar company, and I'm willin…

Gaming GPUs is a side business for them at this point. It’s all about AI.

Gaming was sort of their major thing until the cryptocurrency wave gave them a major boost and GPUs were rare luxuries suddenly. But as crypto was fading and GPUs were suddenly becoming affordable, GenAI wave hit and again gave a major boost. Am curious how they will react to quantum(sadly no magical enterprise application apparent yet so the tail wind is not strong).

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#94

Post by saagarjha »

stingraycharles wrote: post #44
voidspark wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You linked to an article about Google renting an insignificant amount of additional capacity. Google runs AI / HPC workloads on their own hardware and has been doing that for more than a decade. Google Gemini was trained on TPUs developed in house. It does not run on Nvidia hardware.

And I believe Apple refuses to use NVidia as well, they’re actually using Google’s TPUs. https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intell...

Apple is definitely using Nvidia hardware.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#95

Post by zelphirkalt »

leptons wrote: post #82
01100011 wrote: post #27

Seems like another article based on the assumption that Nvidia just sits there doing nothing while everyone who has so far proven unable to compete suddenly figures it out and steals their lunch. At some point one of these Nvidia doomers will be right but there is a long line of them who failed miserably.

Google is investing in QC quite a bit, I wonder if Nvidia has. Even Nvidia is going to look antiquated someday.

Not every problem is solved faster by a QC. For many things using a QC would be pure waste.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#96

Post by loufe »

mushufasa wrote: post #69
voidspark wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> everyone who has so far proven unable to compete The article explains that Nvidia's biggest customers (50% of datacenter revenue) are switching to their own hardware.

I'm skeptical of this. They have been doing this for a decade already. So far, those same companies have just become bigger and bigger customers of NVIDIA. NVIDIA is very strategic about building product to avoid commodification -- both by building out network effects where software is tied to their proprietary sdk libraries, and by always focusing on being at the cutting edge of product. Both these things can be tru…

I'm baffled seeing this. I'm absolutely convinced of Google value prop, knowing Gemini 2.5 pro was trained and inference is performed on their TPUs is enormous. It's far and way the best model (Claude still has my heart, but their usage limits and limited context can't compete).

The company that can allow collaboration up the value chain only like Google can in this space right now is going to win. The author went over similar pushes by Meta, AWS, and Microsoft.

Now that their eyes are on the prize, and the prize is so staggeringly big, I'm convinced of the threat to their moat.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#97

Post by makeitdouble »

prng2021 wrote: post #89
makeitdouble wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's kind of arguing that people cooking at home are restaurants' competitors. There's a kernel of truth in it, but if I was McDonalds I'd care a lot more about what KFC is doing than the market trends of cast iron pans.

The 3, multi-trillion dollar hyperscalers using their own GPUs are individuals cooking at home? And Nvidia is the “restaurants”?

I'd say yes. We see the same dynamic with megacorp building in-house kitchens and paying staff to feed their employees, who stop going into restaurants at lunch.

It's a huge shift, but not something that can be acted by Nvidia, nor something they had to care about 5 years ago, nor a primary concern 5 years from now. On the long scale, it's almost as if the big fireworks that pushed Nvidia to its curent valuation just disappears and they're back to selling GPUs to OEMs and consumers primarily.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#98

Post by makeitdouble »

voidspark wrote: post #71
makeitdouble wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's kind of arguing that people cooking at home are restaurants' competitors. There's a kernel of truth in it, but if I was McDonalds I'd care a lot more about what KFC is doing than the market trends of cast iron pans.

Bad analogy 90% of Nvidia's revenue is from datacenters. If the datacenters stop buying Nvidia's products, and use their own hardware instead, then Nvidia loses 90% of its revenue.

> Nvidia loses 90% of its revenue.

These 90% will be a flash in the pan, same way the COVID revenue was for mask sellers. Sure it feels bad from Nvidia's perspective, but we also can understand that the AI boom would not have kept Nvidia skyrocketing infinitely anyway.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#99

Post by makeitdouble »

dwattttt wrote: post #62
makeitdouble wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But then they're not boosting NVidia's competitors either, so wouldn't NVidia stay in the top position in their market ? The article seems focused more on stock price and where to bet, than the market for GPUs or generic hardware vendors.

> But then they're not boosting NVidia's competitors either, so wouldn't NVidia stay in the top position in their market ? Nope; if hypothetically 100% left NVidia, whether to their own hardware or to not use GPUs at all, it'd be easy to say NVidia would be last in the market

Are you arguing that the major cloud providers getting away from consumer GPUs would put AMD or Intel ahead of Nvidia in the GPU market ? How does that happen when the next biggest market (gaming) is still fully Nvidia's turf?

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#100

Post by johnnyanmac »

makeitdouble wrote: post #66
mycall wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By switching to their own hardware, they become NVidia's competitors.

That's kind of arguing that people cooking at home are restaurants' competitors. There's a kernel of truth in it, but if I was McDonalds I'd care a lot more about what KFC is doing than the market trends of cast iron pans.

I'd say so, yes. If I'm McDonald's and me and kfc are down, but Ralph's is up, I'd suspect a worrying trend about my industry.

It's kind of like how people may make fun of YouTube seeing TikTok as a competitor. But you dig deeper and realize why they decided to get into short for content.

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