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AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

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Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#91

Post by AllSuperIndians »

thomasahle wrote: post #29
dcchambers wrote: post #21

And in 30 years it will be another 30 years away. LLMs are so incredibly useful and powerful but they will NEVER be AGI. I actually wonder if the success of (and subsequent obsession with) LLMs is putting true AGI further out of reach. All that these AI companies see are the $$$. When the biggest "AI Research Labs" like OpenAI shifted to product-izing their LLM offerings I think the writing was on the wall that they…

People will keep improving LLMs, and by the time they are AGI (less than 30 years), you will say, "Well, these are no longer LLMs."

[dead]

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#92

Post by dcchambers »

kadushka wrote: post #84
dcchambers wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Literally every single person I know that is capable of holding a pen or typing on a keyboard can create something new.

Something new != truly novel. ChatGPT creates something new every time I ask it a question.

adjective: novel

definition: new or unusual in an interesting way.

ChatGPT can create new things, sure, but it does so at your directive. It doesn't do that because it wants to which gets back to the other part of my answer.

When an LLM can create something without human prompting or directive, then we can call that intelligence.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#93

Post by croes »

jdross wrote: post #20
EA-3167 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like it's already been pretty well digested and excreted for the most part, now we're into the re-ingestion phase until the bubble bursts.

I am tech founder, who spends most of my day in my own startup deploying LLM-based tools into my own operations, and I'm maybe 1% of the way through the roadmap I'd like to build with what exists and is possible to do today.

What has your roadmap to do with the capabilities?

LLMs still hallucinate and make simple mistakes.

And the progress seams to be in the benchmarks only

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43603453

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#94

Post by dingnuts »

kadushka wrote: post #75
dcchambers wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Will LLMs approach something that appears to be AGI? Maybe. Probably. They're already "better" than humans in many use cases. LLMs/GPTs are essentially "just" statistical models. At this point the argument becomes more about philosophy than science. What is "intelligence?" If an LLM can do something truly novel with no human prompting, with no directive other than something it has created for itself - then I guess we…

How many people do you know who are capable of doing something truly novel? Definitely not me, I'm just an average phd doing average research.

I'm a lowly high school diploma holder. I thought the point of getting a PhD meant you had done something novel (your thesis).

Is that wrong?

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#95

Post by [deleted] »

tough wrote: post #66
umeshunni wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I'm old enough to remember all the masses who mocked the Internet and smartphones too.

Im not mocking AI, and while the internet and smartphones fundamentally changed how societies operate, and AI will probably do so to, why the Doomerism? Isn't that how tech works? We invent new tech and use it and so on? What makes AI fundamentally different than smartphones or the internet? Will it change the world? Probably, already has. Will it end it as we know it? Probably not?

[deleted]

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#96

Post by azinman2 »

tough wrote: post #53
azinman2 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really disagree. I had a masseuse tell me how he uses ChatGPT, told it a ton of info about himself, and now he uses it for personalized nutrition recommendations. I was in Atlanta over the weekend recently, at a random brunch spot, and overheard some _very_ not SV/tech folks talk about how they use it everyday. Their user growth rate shows this -- you don't hit hundreds of millions of people and have them all be HN…

I see ChatGPT as the new Google, not the new Nuclear Power Soruce. maybe im naive

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DIep4wLvvVa/

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DE0lldzTHyw/

These maybe satire but I feel like they capture what’s happening. It’s more than Google.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#97

Post by karmakaze »

xnx wrote: post #65

I'll take the "under" on 30 years. Demis Hassabis (who has more credibility than whoever these 3 people are combined) says 5-10 years: https://time.com/7277608/demis-hassabis-interview-time100-20...

That's in line with Ray Kurzweil sticking to his long-held predictions: 2029 for AGI and 2045 for the singularity.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#98

Post by xyzal »

fusionadvocate wrote: post #33
throw7 wrote: post #22

AGI is here today... go have a kid.

Natural intelligence is too expensive. Takes too long for it to grow. If things go wrong then we have to jail it. With computers we just change the software.

You work for DOGE, don't you?

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#99

Post by codingwagie »

csto12 wrote: post #7
codingwagie wrote: post #3

I just used o3 to design a distributed scheduler that scales to 1M+ sxchedules a day. It was perfect, and did better than two weeks of thought around the best way to build this.

You just asked it to design or implement? If o3 can design it, that means it’s using open source schedulers as reference. Did you think about opening up a few open source projects to see how they were doing things in those two weeks you were designing?

why would I do that kind of research if it can identify the problem I am trying to solve, and spit out the exact solution. also, it was a rough implementation adapted to my exact tech stack

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#100

Post by codingwagie »

davidsainez wrote: post #44
codingwagie wrote: post #3

I just used o3 to design a distributed scheduler that scales to 1M+ sxchedules a day. It was perfect, and did better than two weeks of thought around the best way to build this.

While impressive, I'm not convinced that improved performance on tasks of this nature are indicative of progress toward AGI. Building a scheduler is a well studied problem space. Something like the ARC benchmark is much more indicative of progress toward true AGI, but probably still insufficient.

the other models failed at this miserably. There were also specific technical requirements I gave it related to my tech stack
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