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America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

molsonhart.com

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Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#91

Post by npiano »

ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #38

This pretty much mirrors what a friend of mine said (he is a recently-retired Co-CEO of a medium-sized manufacturing business). He's been telling me this, for years. It's not a secret. The information has been out there, for ages. I'm surprised that the administration didn't understand this.

A genuine question, presuming no correct answer: what is to be done about it? China is reportedly on track to run more than 50% of global manufacturing by 2030, if the World Bank is correct. What would you do to act against this? Is doing nothing acceptable?

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#92

Post by mytailorisrich »

gjsman-1000 wrote: post #64
PaulKeeble wrote: post #9

Its the integration and overall combined effect of the entire industrial pipeline that makes China so incredible. It processes all the raw materials and the recycling/reuse of off cuts through every possible way to turn those raw materials into components and then into goods with very little need for import from other countries. Its the complete system for a huge variety of goods. To compete with that the entire pipe…

And if China invades Taiwan, which they have said for decades they will do (we just don’t like to believe them), what then? Do we sacrifice a democracy for the dollar? If not, is our economy annihilated? We have no credible alternative to reshoring for this reason alone.

The relations between Taiwan and the US have nothing to do with "democracy". First it was about anti-communism, when the Chinese government fled there and the mainland was taken over by the communists. Now it is about anti-communism and "China containment". The fact that Taiwan transitioned to democracy in the 1980s is just convenient to feed the public that this is indeed about "democracy", "freedom", the usual.

As a historical point, the US never had a problem with Taiwan being handed back to China at the end of WWII, since it is what happened. Again, this is all just a tool against the communists and then against China's increasing power as a whole.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#93

Post by idle_zealot »

ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #38

This pretty much mirrors what a friend of mine said (he is a recently-retired Co-CEO of a medium-sized manufacturing business). He's been telling me this, for years. It's not a secret. The information has been out there, for ages. I'm surprised that the administration didn't understand this.

> I'm surprised that the administration didn't understand this.

Why would you assume they don't understand? Every time they're questioned about the tariffs the narrative shifts. We have a trade deficit, we're getting ripped off, we want to bring back domestic manufacturing jobs, we'll automate them with robotics and AI, we're playing hardball to negotiate a better trade deal and get rid of fentanyl, it's a matter of national security, an economic emergency, the dollar is overvalued.

You cannot trust a word from them. If you want to understand why they're doing something you must look only at incentives and outcomes. My current analysis is that there's some internal conflict, but the overall push for tariffs comes from a desire to crash the economy and use the downturn to consolidate wealth and power.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#95

Post by skyyler »

ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #60
nine_zeros wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm surprised that the administration didn't understand this. Curious why you are surprised at incompetence being unable to understand complexity.

Fair point. :/ My friend is watching his business get ready to die. His wife is still the CEO, and she's losing her shit. They're not alone. There's thousands and thousands of similar operations, all over the US, that will have to shut down, if something doesn't give. I guess the mega-rich oligarchs think this is great, but they don't employ the majority of Americans.

The majority of Americans simply are not going to benefit from this administration, it seems.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#96

Post by MisterTea »

PaulKeeble wrote: post #9

Its the integration and overall combined effect of the entire industrial pipeline that makes China so incredible. It processes all the raw materials and the recycling/reuse of off cuts through every possible way to turn those raw materials into components and then into goods with very little need for import from other countries. Its the complete system for a huge variety of goods. To compete with that the entire pipe…

> Its the integration and overall combined effect of the entire industrial pipeline that makes China so incredible.

The incredible part is USA exported that entire sector to China.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#97

Post by thechao »

csense wrote: post #46

There are plenty of people saying these tariffs will not work. But a person used to be able to graduate high school and get a job that could support a house with a yard, a car, a non-working spouse and children. How we get that level of prosperity back? That's the people really want. Tariffs are simply a means to that end. I wish people would stop writing articles about 100% criticizing tariffs and instead write arti…

When I was studying economics, my macro professor used to belabor the point that post-WW2 US socioeconomics was a highly unique (and special) time-and-place; and, it is a mistake to generalize economic theory from that time-and-place.

So... here goes: rather than proclaiming a "housing crisis", maybe we're seeing the end of an exceptional period of "housing affordability". (A similar analysis of Europe and Asia applies, piecemeal.)

As such, if we want to re-enter into a new period of housing affordability, we need to ask ourselves what we plan to give up and/or trade for that?

For WW2, it was millions of lives and worldwide devastation. It seems like we'd need a complete re-evaluation of the way wealth, family structures, and social safety nets work in order to vastly expand housing. (In the US.)

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#98

Post by gjsman-1000 »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #92
gjsman-1000 wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And if China invades Taiwan, which they have said for decades they will do (we just don’t like to believe them), what then? Do we sacrifice a democracy for the dollar? If not, is our economy annihilated? We have no credible alternative to reshoring for this reason alone.

The relations between Taiwan and the US have nothing to do with "democracy". First it was about anti-communism, when the Chinese government fled there and the mainland was taken over by the communists. Now it is about anti-communism and "China containment". The fact that Taiwan transitioned to democracy in the 1980s is just convenient to feed the public that this is indeed about "democracy", "freedom", the usual. As…

Even if you are correct, we are in a situation where we risk having built our economy on the cheap labor of a Russia equivalent.

If that Russia equivalent invades an Ukraine equivalent, despite both instances being considered unthinkably crazy, what are we going to do? Or, what will China do, to us?

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#99

Post by myth_drannon »

A personal anecdote from someone close to me. A food plant in Canada (so not heavy/high tech manufacturing), was importing raw materials from US, processing it and exporting it to US. After Trump tariffs, they bought some small plant in the middle of nowhere USA. Moving most of the equipment to that US plant, increased the salaries of Americans that worked there before (very low salaries compared to Canada). So yes, it's unskilled labour but an example of production moving quickly back to US.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#100

Post by tmpz22 »

knowaveragejoe wrote: post #52
beanjuiceII wrote: post #36

yea its difficult lets not do it

Let's approach it from the other direction: why should we? What are we getting by trying to "bring it back"?

High paying factory jobs that will allow an individual to purchase a home and start a family!
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