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Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow

independent.co.uk

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Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow

#91
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

so stocks are less related to individual company performance than they should be?

More that, almost all companies are expected to perform worse when you elect an economically incompetent government.

What's the opposite of "a rising tide floats all boats"?

Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow

#92
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It becomes a bubble when suddenly people who paid a fortune for mortgages at sky high prices aren't able to pay them anymore. Or demand falls. The market is currently tight but on both supply and demand. No one with a 2% mortgage wants to move. No one wants to buy at 6% interest.

I personally think of a bubble has having a significant speculation component which I don't think applies wholly to the housing market in the same way it does today's stock market. The reasons that housing prices are so high, in my opinion, is primarily because of structural problems. But certainly others may feel differently or define a bubble differently.

The reasons likely vary by region.

Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow

#93
post #49
post #2

Hopefully this isn't a biased take: I think this is a unique situation because the recent moves (in my opinion) are largely a result of everyone's uncertainty around America's policies. In other words, the recent stock moves aren't because we're seeing a bunch of companies fail to miss quarterly targets. There are no major economic indicators flashing red. If stocks can drop that fast in a couple weeks, they can also…

Have you seen what was going on when Trump win was confirmed? Stocks that day shot up. Now it is correction time both on going back to indicators instead of hype and correction based on newly elected administration actions instead of people hopes.

I noticed this with Tesla, at a glance it looks like it is in freefall, but it's actually just returned to the relatively stable level it was at before the election. It seems like investors were hoping Elon would be able to leverage his position for some kind of large-scale corruption in Tesla's favor, and are now deciding that isn't going to happen.

Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow

#94
if we are not going to export dollars, and we are going to make countries spend more of thier own money, then thier cost of borrowing will go up, they will need to rotate out of dollar assets and then traders who use the carry trade will need to unwind them as the source of borrowing (other countries very low interest rates) are no longer very low, as we now see in UK, Germany, and Japan—each hitting very fast highs for interest rates for their govt debt.

It's much more straightforward math then reading of political or vibes tea leaves.

Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow

#97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is way better positioned than Toyota in likely upcoming EV world, so capitalization is result of future expectations.

But not like this. In no current or future world is there a basis for THIS: https://www.voronoiapp.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn...

You checking "units sold", revenue wise Tesla is just 2x smaller: $100B vs $200B.

Re: Wall Street sell-off turns 'ugly' as US recession fears grow

#99
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is way better positioned than Toyota in likely upcoming EV world, so capitalization is result of future expectations.

BYD is also better positioned than Toyota for an upcoming EV world, so there has to be something else going on.

I think BYD market capitalization would be (or already) high if not CCP risks.
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