This article was written by someone who has very little knowledge or appreciation of the history of the game. The NBA has always been a league of specialists revolving around a few superstars with a couple of “glue guys” thrown into the mix.
Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making
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Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making
#92The point about 3 pointer shots being worth more than 2 pointer shots is generally true. However, in the playoffs, when the going gets tough, usually the jitters set in and the teams hit a lot less 3 pointers than in the regular season. Especially with the season on the line in endgames[1]. Which means: In those cases easy baskets and also mid-range shots (from people who are used to making those) regain their import…
> However, in the playoffs, when the going gets tough, usually the jitters set in and the teams hit a lot less 3 pointers than in the regular season.
Is that stats based or anecdotal?
Link to random person on reddit, but it seems like shooting percentage overall drops due to getting rid of bad teams in the playoffs. And 3pt and fg are affected equally. By about 1% - ie not that much.
https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/12luk37/oc_how_does_pl...
Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making
#93I think the NBA needs to focus on how to make more people tune in to the first half of the season. And player’s load management is getting ridiculous.
Yes. The season is so long it gets boring tbh. I never watch the season to begin with only the playoffs but a big reason is there’s so many games it’s not really interesting to watch that many games. But if it was half as long and half as many games in the season I probably would watch every one.
How much of the NBA economy is predicated on those regular season ticket and arena sales? And despite viewership dropping off, it isn't zero so the ad money lost is still a thing too isn't it, unless they charge more?
Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making
#94Easy fix. Get rid of the corner threes and push the three point line back.
I disagree; that would just squeeze the action into a smaller area of the court because offenses would avoid the corner 2.
Another proposal would be to widen the court so the 3 point line would be a complete half circle.
Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making
#95This article was written by someone who has very little knowledge or appreciation of the history of the game. The NBA has always been a league of specialists revolving around a few superstars with a couple of “glue guys” thrown into the mix.
Honestly, this post comes off that way. Or you have a different timeline of what you consider always. Jordan basically invented the modern superstar. Sure, you had the Wilts and Dr J's back in the day, but they dominated based on their talent, not because the game was meticulously planned around maximizing their specific capabilities.
Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making
#96This article presents a readable overview of today’s NBA trends, but IMO is too absolute in its judgment. Basketball is not a solved sport. There is still innovation, for example with OKC’s historically good defense that relies on playing 5 smaller but faster players. There are still good all-around players. There are still people that hit a lot of mid range shots. We have trends going the other way, sure, but they h…
In my opinion, the real problem with the NBA is that we no longer get the marquee matchups in the Finals that we used to during the 90s and 00s, mainly because the season is too long. An 82-game grind isn’t sustainable - it practically guarantees that stars like Giannis, Luka, or Jokic (or their key teammates) will get injured to the playoffs or not at all. The fact that we’ve never seen Embiid vs. Giannis in the ECF…
I think a big reason we don't have competitive finals is generally not having a harder salary cap and allowing max for contracts. If a player really is that good they should take up 50% of the cap and to balance it out have terrible other players.
Anything else allows stacking value above cost and leading to team imbalances.
Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making
#97The point about 3 pointer shots being worth more than 2 pointer shots is generally true. However, in the playoffs, when the going gets tough, usually the jitters set in and the teams hit a lot less 3 pointers than in the regular season. Especially with the season on the line in endgames[1]. Which means: In those cases easy baskets and also mid-range shots (from people who are used to making those) regain their import…
> However, in the playoffs, when the going gets tough, usually the jitters set in and the teams hit a lot less 3 pointers than in the regular season. Is that stats based or anecdotal? Link to random person on reddit, but it seems like shooting percentage overall drops due to getting rid of bad teams in the playoffs. And 3pt and fg are affected equally. By about 1% - ie not that much. https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comm…
You'd expect shooting percentage to go up based on bad teams dropping out. Elite offensive teams have a much higher increase in shooting percentage over replacement than even an elite defensive team can reduce an opponent's shooting percentage.
But, the game slows down, and everyone plays defense more aggressively, which might account for the change described here.
Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making
#98Earlier quoted context omitted.
> most teams can find these archetypes and build rosters that get you to the playoffs Not really, it's still 16/30 (I don't like playoff formats btw, so American).
My country of Smugistan solved playoff problem years ago. Very simple: every Smugball team makes playoffs. If Americans and Europeans weren't so far behind Smugistanian education system, they would have figured it out too.
It's not about being smug:
1) playoff format rends 6 months of games not very important, the biggest difference is in your seeding. That's..all?
2) another way it makes the previous 6/7 months pointless is that your entire season is based on a single set of games. You can be the best team in the league by far, but then if one player gets injured or you're out of form or unlucky it's over
I just don't like leagues with a playoff system, you either have a league or you have a round robin, both seem directed toward squeezing tv rights, not awarding the best team of a season.
Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making
#99Stolen bases in baseball is similar to this. In 2023, MLB made two rule changes with stealing being at all time lows (and them thinking fans love stolen bases): 1) Limiting the number of pickoff attempts by pitchers, and 2) Slight enlarging of the bases. Take a look at the jump[0]. It's been interesting to follow some changes teams have made the past two seasons where teams are figuring out how to better time steals…
I don't really understand the comparison. The game changes with the rules. The meta shifts with the analytics.
But stealing bases has long been a science. It was something I admired about college level development of players in the 2000's - stealing bases went from fundamental to advanced and well beyond "just let the fastest guys do their thing." UVA's coach had a saying like "every player on this team will be capable of stealing bases"
Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making
#100Danny Green is probably the father of [the 3-and-D] model, with his 40% career three-point field goal percentage and he also made into all-defensive team.
Obviously people shot fewer 3s back then, but as far as I remember, Bruce Bowen was really the first 3-and-D player back in the 90s.
Gone are the days of an all-around player. There is no longer a need for a player who does everything. Look at players like Kobe Bryant and Lebron James (early career); they not only scored but guarded defense, caught rebounds and played the role of playmakers.
Not sure how true that is. People sometimes call the modern style "heliocentric" - one star who makes the offense work, surrounded by a bunch of role players. These star players often do basically everything, albeit most are better at some things than others. But that's always been true, stars in the old days were not always perfectly balanced.
And stars these days have a ton of variability. Look at the best players in the league - Jokic, Shai, Giannis, Luka, Embiid (when healthy..) - those guys all play very different styles of basketball, and that's awesome!
But I do agree with the overall point of the article. I find it annoying when I'm watching a game and so many possessions there's just not much happening. A couple passes around the perimeter, someone jacks up a moderately contested 3, rinse and repeat. Not the most exciting basketball. That doesn't happen every play, and there's still plenty of exciting plays and players, but it happens a lot more than it used to.