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I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

hindenburgresearch.com

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Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#91
post #59

I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments because I was naively confident in the market's ability (or as I've come to suspect, willingness) to react to evidence of fraud. The amount of deceit put out into the world and gobbled up, on purpose, in business is obscene and seriously depressing. The magnitude of damage to psyches and thus economies that anyone acting in a fraud…

> Many self-important people online are quick to pounce on short sellers as being evil, and that will forever be a serious red flag to me thanks in no small part to Nate Anderson and the folks at Hindenburg Research. Credible arguments can be made however that short-selling itself, especially naked short selling, is an unethical thing to do as the pure possibility of short-selling makes some forms of crime possible i…

1. Naked short selling basically doesn't happen anymore. To the extent that it does happen it's a mere technicality and the borrow is found after a couple of days.

2. There is very little money in shorting. Pumping and dumping by making up positive news is much more lucrative. "to the moon" has been a trope for years, and there is no equivalent on the short side. Even the world's most successful short seller Jim Chanos was successful because the short portfolio functioned as a hedge that enabled a leveraged long position on broad indices. It's pretty hard make money net short when the market goes up for two straight decades.

3. The authorities don't have the resources nor the dogged inclination to hunt down fraudsters. The authorities can't and shouldn't base an exhaustive investigation on vaguely shifty CEO behavior. Short sellers can and do start their investigation based on gut feeling.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d wager a big part of how they make money is as SEC whistleblowers. It’s not as huge of money as shorting is - but it’s typically a single digit percentage of the recovered fines. Considering these guys nailed a company that defrauded people of $3 BILLION dollars, they’d net $30 mil from turning that company in even if the payout is only 1%. The SEC has a policy of paying out part of recovered fines as bounties to…

Its 10% to 30% where did you get 1% from, its a really good bounty system to clean up the markets and you get to be anonymous if you use a lawyer, the trick is to get the SEC to prioritize it. They are now inundated after some large payouts made the news in financial circles

Large indeed - there was a $279 million payout to a bounty hunter in 2023:

https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023-89

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#93
post #59

I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments because I was naively confident in the market's ability (or as I've come to suspect, willingness) to react to evidence of fraud. The amount of deceit put out into the world and gobbled up, on purpose, in business is obscene and seriously depressing. The magnitude of damage to psyches and thus economies that anyone acting in a fraud…

Keep in mind, fraud isn't necessarily a big deal for the shareholder, not all fraud is Enron-tier. For example, I fully believe they were right about Adani, but it was basically just skimming money off the top. If Adani is an embezzler, but also good and funneling bribes to get gov't contracts, then the overall effect on profits may just be breakeven or even positive. The losers would be the Indian citizenry. The company isn't doing so well now possibly due to a culture of corruption, but that kind of long-term culture analysis is hard for traders. But generally, fraud isn't severe enough to enough to endanger the company, it's just taking some money out of shareholders' pockets, but dispassionate traders don't usually sell out of retaliation.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#94
post #32
post #14

Did he... link the wrong URL at the end of the post? I thought for sure it was going to be some sort of heartfelt speech, or motivational message, or something. But it's an instrumental DJ set which seems totally out of left field

I was fully expecting [1] but then I just listened for a while and honestly, I get it. I can't explain, but yeah. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KxGRhd_iWuE

He only uses that one when he's getting short squeezed

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#95
post #86

The impact this organization had was incredible. I doubt they would have been able to do this work if they were based out of any other country, which makes me wonder how the US legal system, regulators and law enforcement in general are not extremely corrupt. What reasons or incentives make the system work in the US? Of course there are many instances of corruption and injustice, but in comparison to almost any other…

There are many reasons for this but primarily its simply that it is a wealthy country with a functioning legal system. US courts are generally fair; if biased. This has changed with many recent rulings by the SCOTUS. But there exists a culture of generally respecting laws (and an apparatus to enforce those laws).

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#96

"just feeling like it" seems insufficient explanation for dismantling a successful organization rather than transitioning it they just completed their "pipeline of ideas" with "the last Ponzi cases" - seems like a surprisingly clean and abrupt end for an investigative organization the team members are "brilliant" and "family to me" but heis disbanding rather than transitioning leadership He mentions some team members…

> In May 2022, Hindenburg took a short position in Twitter, Inc. following the announcement of its acquisition of Twitter by Elon Musk. After Musk's attempted termination of the deal, Hindenburg took a significant long position on Twitter, betting against Musk on the acquisition to close.

Something about that individual coming to power along with the other oligarchs? The coming political climate looks to be one where money is more important than the rule of law (even more so than usual), which might be bad news for a business like that.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a hard business to make money in. Shorting tends to be intrinsically harder because the market goes up over time and Americans are generally optimists. Plus the last 2 years we've seen 20+% market moves upwards. Despite it being a necessity for functioning markets, when you are short, seemingly everyone is against you - business management, regulators, media, etc. Not surprised to see them bow out. Chanos did so…

> Shorting tends to be intrinsically harder because the market goes up over time and Americans are generally optimists. ... and the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. I remember once I tried shorting a stock, of a market leader in my area. I knew the field well enough to see that they were trying to fudge some numbers and their quarter was _not_ as good as they had claimed it to be. But sadl…

Somebody say the thing please

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#99
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm assuming when he says "governments taking a look at" he means like the Indian government and it's more of a Mafia-type "taking a look at" than a serious inquiry with any actual merit. A strongarm type thing

Pretty big allegations without any source.

Yeah not like Hindenburg researched a large Indian company with close ties to the BJP.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2023/3/1/modi-govt-allowed...

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