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Jensen Huang keynote at CES 2025 [video]

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Re: Jensen Huang keynote at CES 2025 [video]

#91

Post by mafribe »

ksec wrote: post #82
kcb wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A major chip acquisition by Nvidia will probably never get global regulatory approval. I guess the question is what does Mediatek provide in the partnership. Nvidia is well versed in developing ARM SoCs already.

> what does Mediatek provide? Market access, shares and relationship to all vendors, most of them never worked with Nvidia. Ready made 5G solutions. Know how in product category that is not as simple as buying IP and making a chip. Shipping Nvidia CUDA GPU IP to all other domains. For acquisition benefits they share the development cost of leading node and volume. Which is part of the wider SemiConductor industry str…

Country C's regulators can sanction the companies entities in C including denying access to the market in C. (C.f. how the US got Swiss banks to comply with financial transparency laws.)

It would not matter if C == Lichtenstein, but China is currently the world's biggest semi-conductor market ...

Re: Jensen Huang keynote at CES 2025 [video]

#92

Post by gbin »

geokon wrote: post #83
headcanon wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Market price for a 4090 is ~$2700 today: https://stockx.com/nvidia-founders-geforce-rtx-4090-24gb-gra... When you have a retail price so far below "street" price, it just makes it harder to obtain and scalpers take a bigger cut. Raising the price to something more normal at least gives you more of a chance at the big-box store.

very naiive question... But why have a retail price at all and not just auction off batches to retailers (say 10 000 card at a time) Let the market set the price and only control how many cards you auction and when

Being able to decide a price and who you sell your product to is a huge leverage. Nvidia can go to a retailer selling something they don't like to be side by side on a shelf, hey ditch this and we will make you a price. It is never that overt of course and it can play geopolitically too, hey government you want chips? We have chips and it would be a shame if the market grabs them before you, BTW don't forget my tax cut.

Re: Jensen Huang keynote at CES 2025 [video]

#93

Post by touisteur »

knowitnone wrote: post #49
bgnn wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

5g, wifi, bluetooth etc. what makes a mobile processor monile processor other than the CPU

yeah, those are just modules that anybody can just buy. NVIDIA already makes jetsons which are basically SBCs with decent GPU. so again, what does Mediatek provide?

Maybe a sign of NVIDIA divesting low-margin SoCs or finding a way to be in nextgen phone chips ? (Edit:) solidifying the cuda moat in phone SoCs too ?

Re: Jensen Huang keynote at CES 2025 [video]

#94

Post by kbolino »

kbolino wrote: post #69
ninetyninenine wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is GPU improvement is driven more by gaming then by AI hype? Gaming is the biggest industry and there is real money coming from that. Does speculative money from VCs actually overshadow actual money spent by consumers? I know stock prices is driven by AI hype but how much does it actually effect the bottom line of Nvidia? I think GPU improvement happens regardless of AI.

ML was big before LLMs and nVidia was already making a killing from selling expensive GPUs that would never draw a single polygon ca 2015. They've been hobbling FP64 (double precision) support in cheaper "consumer" GPUs, to prevent their use in most data centers, for a long time too.

Looking into this a bit, it seems that nVidia was still making most of its money from "gaming" as recently as early 2022. I'd suspect that, if crypto mining could be separated out, the transition point actually happened a couple of years earlier, but nevertheless the datacenter segment didn't become dominant until about 2-2.5 years ago. It existed well before then, but wasn't that big.

Re: Jensen Huang keynote at CES 2025 [video]

#95

Post by theptip »

geokon wrote: post #83
headcanon wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Market price for a 4090 is ~$2700 today: https://stockx.com/nvidia-founders-geforce-rtx-4090-24gb-gra... When you have a retail price so far below "street" price, it just makes it harder to obtain and scalpers take a bigger cut. Raising the price to something more normal at least gives you more of a chance at the big-box store.

very naiive question... But why have a retail price at all and not just auction off batches to retailers (say 10 000 card at a time) Let the market set the price and only control how many cards you auction and when

Well for one thing it’s a lot easier to communicate expectations to consumers at CES.

“Coming soon to auction at a price set by users, no idea what that will be though, good luck!” is much less compelling for consumers trying to plan their purchases in advance.

Re: Jensen Huang keynote at CES 2025 [video]

#96

Post by re-thc »

ksec wrote: post #27

I actually got a lot more upbeat about the potential of AI after watching this keynote more so than any other demonstration or presentation. Blackwell is still based on N4, a derivative of 5nm. We know we will have N3 GPU next year, and they should be working with TSMC on capacity planning for N2. Currently Blackwell is pretty much limited by capacity of either TSMC, HBM or packaging. And unless the AI hype dies off…

> I wonder why they dont just acquired Mediatek

It wouldn't be approved by country that Mediatek resides in. For the same reasons they won't approve a TSMC sale either.

Re: Jensen Huang keynote at CES 2025 [video]

#97

Post by heyoni »

pertymcpert wrote: post #87
heyoni wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or scalpers won’t be dissuaded and street price for a 5090 will be $3200 or more. $1500 was already an insane price tag for scalpers to pay but they did it anyways.

The scalpers are trying to arbitrage the difference in price between the prices bought directly from suppliers and those on the open secondary market. increasing the retail price doesn't increase the price on the secondary market, it just lowers the margin of scalpers.

Great, so nothing changes.

Re: Jensen Huang keynote at CES 2025 [video]

#98

Post by [deleted] »

behnamoh wrote: post #74
Jedd wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This feels like a weird complaint, given you started by saying it was 24GB, and then argued that the person who told you it was actually 32GB was making that up.

Looks like Nvidia did a simple calculation: 32GB (for 5090) / 24GB (for 4090) ≃ 1.33 Then multiply 4090's price by that: $1500 × 1.33 ≃ $2000 All else equal, this means that price per GB of VRAM stayed the same. But in reality, other things improved too (like the bandwidth) which I appreciate. I just think that for home AI use, 32GB isn't that helpful. In my experience and especially for agents, models at 32B paramet…

[deleted]

Re: Jensen Huang keynote at CES 2025 [video]

#99

Post by fuzzfactor »

VHRanger wrote: post #51
ksec wrote: post #27

I actually got a lot more upbeat about the potential of AI after watching this keynote more so than any other demonstration or presentation. Blackwell is still based on N4, a derivative of 5nm. We know we will have N3 GPU next year, and they should be working with TSMC on capacity planning for N2. Currently Blackwell is pretty much limited by capacity of either TSMC, HBM or packaging. And unless the AI hype dies off…

How would shrinking the processor size help if the current GPU generation is already completely bottlenecked by VRAM bandwidth saturation? We aren't seeing nearly the same gains on VRAM bandwidth as we are on compute bandwidth

The original idea behind shrinking the feature size is to make more money, by getting a greater nuber of chips from the same wafer.

Re: Jensen Huang keynote at CES 2025 [video]

#100

Post by bgnn »

knowitnone wrote: post #49
bgnn wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

5g, wifi, bluetooth etc. what makes a mobile processor monile processor other than the CPU

yeah, those are just modules that anybody can just buy. NVIDIA already makes jetsons which are basically SBCs with decent GPU. so again, what does Mediatek provide?

looking back at the news releases: Mediatek seems to bring CPU design expertise on the table, which makes sense, they have much more experience and know-how in this than Nvidia. Mediatek is a top tier company with excellent engineering talent. Ideally Nvidia would acquire such a company so that they can challenge AMD and Qualcomm better but this doesn't seem to fit for their strategy to keep it small and focused. Hemce such a partnership works better for them.
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