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More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

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Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#91

I remember a controversial scamming figure in Italy that made millions by selling lucky numbers for lotteries or exploiting people's stupidity to part them with their life savings. Her motto was "idiots _have_ to be scammed". While this figure was morally and ethically deplorable, it always made me think how her motto essentially implied that there was an element of pure natural selection happening and she saw hersel…

> And there's no third party scamming them. Sure there is. Retail investors are prey for more sophisticated investors. Getting people on WSB to make bad financial decisions is cheap and easy. I would be astonished if it isn't thoroughly astroturfed by hedge funds and other financial professionals.

I can think of one such example where the populace emphatically said retail investors were getting screwed, and AFAIK, conclusive proof was never found.

The claim was that Citadel was frontrunning Robinhood's retail investor order flow, which Citadel's market making arm paid for. The masses claimed that this was an extreme conflict of interest, and Citadel "must" be scalping the retail investors. However, the suspected reality is that Citadel was merely providing a market making service that (a) Robinhood couldn't do as well as a non-core activity and (b) for cheaper. Here's a Matt Levine overview [0] from 2021.

[0] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-08-31/what-h...

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#92
post #76
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Take a wider view - the people with economic power are generally the people who use it for economically sensible things. Someone who spends irrationally is going to end up with no money. This is a similar process to natural selection - because the unviable strategies are removed, everything that is around is using a viable strategy. This woman was forcing people with unviable financial beliefs (that led to them being…

No, the resources diverted to people with "unviable financial beliefs" were done so in a proper market-efficient way, and would have been spent in perfectly ordinary ways no different from the average person of modest means, if it weren't for the scams. Diverting people's resources to unproductive, antisocial scammers based on arbitrary educational criteria is the only "ruinous" thing in this picture. They are the ec…

> and would have been spent in perfectly ordinary ways no different from the average person of modest means, if it weren't for the scams.

That is a pretty big leap.

There are plenty of ways, plenty of “unviable financial beliefs”, that can lead one to unwisely fritter away their resources without being exploited by a scammer.

You are basically asserting that most people who get scammed are otherwise Rational Agents who would invest their capital wisely, if not for the scammers deceiving them.

I would argue that, on the contrary, this set of people is very small.

Think of how many stories there are of people pursuing “investments”, or just directing their resources, into flat-out bullshit.

To pick some examples off the top of my head:

How much time, money, thought, effort (e.g. capital) has been wasted by people pursuing the Flat Earth theory? I would guess that there aren’t very many scammers involved in the Flat Earth movement. Most of the people involved are crackpot true believers.

As opposed to, say, homeopathy. Which certainly has a not-insignificant number of exploiters/scammers, people who know that it is bullshit but gladly exploit the uneducated.

Both of these movements involve a significant number of “uneducated” people spending their resources on a fantasy.

But, most of the resources poured into the Flat Earth movement are pure waste, with very little benefit whatsoever to the “Body Economic”. There are not very many “trickle down” benefits from the resources being spent.

When the “uneducated” people give their resources to a scammer, it is usually ending up in the hands of someone who is at least somewhat economically rational. And those resources will be spent in more rational ways.

Even if the scammer buys a bunch of gold chains and sports cars that they don’t really use, those resources are “participating” in the economy in a way that the wasted investments that don’t involve a scammer are not.

I’m not on the scammers’ side. I’m not saying they are good people. But it is not clear that “they are the economic inefficiency”.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#93
post #67
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A 3k bankroll isn’t remotely close to enough working capital to employ any kind of useful risk management strategy and get any kind of return worth the bother.

Right but if you are wrong you are only out 3k. Many people with more money think they have a good strategy and lose a lot before they realize it wasn't bad luck and risk management but a bad idea.

Well it's true, you do need an idea. But good ideas aren't hard to come by when you understand basic risk management. Take for example recent events. Say your idea is if this election goes one way, it's neutral/slightly bearish for TSLA, if it goes the other way it's wildly bullish for TSLA. Since one possibility isn't going to result in much movement you ignore it. For the other one you structure some options trades to go long where gamma will runaway in your favor. Assuming polls are to be believed, you have a roughly 40% chance of that bet paying off, and you can structure it to pay off a heck of a lot better than 150%. And if you're wrong? Well them's the breaks, but your risk management strategy means you're still in the game to give it a shot at the next good idea. And even then you won't lose your whole bet unless you picked an extremely aggressive expiry.

This is, incidentally, basically how VC works too.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#94

I remember a controversial scamming figure in Italy that made millions by selling lucky numbers for lotteries or exploiting people's stupidity to part them with their life savings. Her motto was "idiots _have_ to be scammed". While this figure was morally and ethically deplorable, it always made me think how her motto essentially implied that there was an element of pure natural selection happening and she saw hersel…

Whats the difference between "idiots have to be scammed" vs "people who can't fend off a knife fighter while en route to the grocery store have to be stabbed"?

Some people are gullible, or trusting. This doesn't mean they don't have other gifts, or most of all good intentions. Applying an evolutionary pressure against people who can't fend off knife attackers is ultimately useless for human wellbeing

The real issue in the world isn't people not being smart enough to fend off attacks, but greed and ego

And besides, what is the root of such a 'idiot' person's deficiencies in the first place? Is it genetics? Or is it education, upbringing, early life traumas that stunt development?

Besides, the whole point of having fit genes in the first place is to bring about human happiness. If we use this to make people miserable it then shows that there is no substance to our perspective

> O CHILDREN OF MEN! Know ye not why We created you all from the same dust? That no one should exalt himself over the other. Ponder at all times in your hearts how ye were created. Since We have created you all from one same substance it is incumbent on you to be even as one soul, to walk with the same feet, eat with the same mouth and dwell in the same land, that from your inmost being, by your deeds and actions, the signs of oneness and the essence of detachment may be made manifest. Such is My counsel to you, O concourse of light! Heed ye this counsel that ye may obtain the fruit of holiness from the tree of wondrous glory.

> ~ Bahá’u’lláh

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#95
post #45

This title is stupid. Comparisons to crack cocaine should have stopped in the 90's or early 00's at the latest. They're never made by people who have the slightest idea about what idea crack was, and whoever wrote that is extremely out of touch. About crack: The public discourse was racist, the CIA had a lot to do with creating the problem, and in general it's no worse than the cocaine my fellow white people seem to…

You have to see real compulsive gambling in action. The comparison is not so far off (but still over the top).

I know what kind of havok a gambling addiction can cause, and it's no joke. It's powerful enough (for some people, at least) that a comparison to addictive drugs generally is apt, yet the traps are everywhere and usually legal. Exploiting the psychological weakness that underpins gambling addiction is something sought after and optimized for outside of overt gambling, like modern video game mechanics, social media, cryptocurrency, retail stock investment, and so on.

In reflecting on why it's so addictive, I've come to believe there's a sort of feeling of adventure in random outcomes --that people like the entropy as well as the wins.

That said, going back to what I said before, my issue with the title of the article is with invoking crack specifically as some especially scary super-addictive thing, which is an idea that was over-hyped at one time. They could have just said cocaine, or better yet, made a comparison to opiates, but they're playing to an old and incorrect bias.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#96
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the long term fundamentals will matter. But the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Ordinarily I would say that an investment in a broad index for the long term (a decade or more) is always wise, and there's no point in trying to time it more specifically than that. However right now it's been irrationally exuberant for a long time. it's going to have to correct itself... Either tomorr…

Depends. If the fundamentals are already good, they're priced in, you probably have little upside, even long term. Maybe you'll just match the market. You have to think the fundamentals will improve over time more than the market expects to beat the market. Long term, I think economics has more to do with market performance. Stocks rise as the money supply expands and capital has no where else to go.

You can't beat the market but you don't need to. The ordinary returns of GDP growth are pretty good.

The free money has definitely been screwing with GDP as a base. I'm still unclear on why the Fed would lower interest rates when the market is fine, the GDP is fine, and inflation is still slightly above baseline 2%. I know everyone is yelling for the punch bowl to come back but now would be a good time to pay down some debts.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#97
post #45

This title is stupid. Comparisons to crack cocaine should have stopped in the 90's or early 00's at the latest. They're never made by people who have the slightest idea about what idea crack was, and whoever wrote that is extremely out of touch. About crack: The public discourse was racist, the CIA had a lot to do with creating the problem, and in general it's no worse than the cocaine my fellow white people seem to…

Hey look, it's Ryan from The Office

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#98
post #54

At one point I knew I could beat the market with l33t software skills. I was wrong and only realized it after donating about 3k to Wall Street.

We've all been there. The house always wins.

Actually, we haven't all been there. Some of us took to heart the lesson from War Games (1983), and apply it liberally:

"An interesting game Dr Falkon: The only way to win is not to play."

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#99
post #97
post #45

This title is stupid. Comparisons to crack cocaine should have stopped in the 90's or early 00's at the latest. They're never made by people who have the slightest idea about what idea crack was, and whoever wrote that is extremely out of touch. About crack: The public discourse was racist, the CIA had a lot to do with creating the problem, and in general it's no worse than the cocaine my fellow white people seem to…

Hey look, it's Ryan from The Office

I had to google it, but I guess you're insinuating that I've done crack?

Fact is, it's smoked cocaine, and the level of scaremongering about it was pretty absurd compared to powder cocaine, amphetamine, or opiates, all arguably just as bad.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#100
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have to see real compulsive gambling in action. The comparison is not so far off (but still over the top).

I know what kind of havok a gambling addiction can cause, and it's no joke. It's powerful enough (for some people, at least) that a comparison to addictive drugs generally is apt, yet the traps are everywhere and usually legal. Exploiting the psychological weakness that underpins gambling addiction is something sought after and optimized for outside of overt gambling, like modern video game mechanics, social media, c…

You have to see real crack addiction in action. It’s not over-hyped at all. It’s just that not everyone gets addicted to it.

People get hung up on physical addiction, but the mental obsession is the real destroyer. Most folks aren’t wired for that kind of obsession. They can get physically addicted to opiates, quit, and never go back. I’ve seen exactly that. I’ve also seen folks become so obsessed with pot, that it makes your worst Central Casting street junkie look tame, by comparison.

True addicts don’t need physical addiction. It’s a mental disorder that doesn’t make sense to most people, but it’s definitely there.

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