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In Memory of Stiver

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Re: In Memory of Stiver

#91

Post by pk-protect-ai »

082349872349872 wrote: post #89
pk-protect-ai wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To repeat this, there has to be a condition: "the oppressed can't bear it anymore." Economically, they are totally fine. They are just cattle who are fed and expected to behave as the owner requires. Ninety percent of Russians who didn't leave the country after 2021 have no incentive to be in any struggle; they are fed, they have work, they have a roof. The conditions that helped in 1917 were related to an economic d…

The ca. 1924 Thermidorian limitations of the 1917 success were explained by Trotsky, whose subsequent literary career was thereupon cancelled, via an ice axe to the head. (I don't know to what degree Eric Blair worried about a similar fate, but we do see that after Animal Farm he moves to a remote island in Scotland, where presumably strangers would draw much greater attention to themselves than in London — and befor…

Regardless, under current conditions there is no slim chance of rebellion in Russia. Massive conscription, on the other hand, and of course massive losses of the conscripted may cause an effect similar to 1917. However, the next government will be the same dictatorship as it always was in Russia, just slightly less aggressive toward neighbors.

Re: In Memory of Stiver

#92

Post by 082349872349872 »

pk-protect-ai wrote: post #91
082349872349872 wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ca. 1924 Thermidorian limitations of the 1917 success were explained by Trotsky, whose subsequent literary career was thereupon cancelled, via an ice axe to the head. (I don't know to what degree Eric Blair worried about a similar fate, but we do see that after Animal Farm he moves to a remote island in Scotland, where presumably strangers would draw much greater attention to themselves than in London — and befor…

Regardless, under current conditions there is no slim chance of rebellion in Russia. Massive conscription, on the other hand, and of course massive losses of the conscripted may cause an effect similar to 1917. However, the next government will be the same dictatorship as it always was in Russia, just slightly less aggressive toward neighbors.

Do you think there might have been an opportunity during the 90-x to find a different ("Пеpемен, мы ждём пеpемен") attraction basin?

(as it is, at least the Yeltsin jokes can, like Brezhnev jokes, be repurposed for US use 2025-2028...)

Re: In Memory of Stiver

#93

Post by cyberax »

jojobas wrote: post #86
cyberax wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Burning systems to the ground does not work. The end result is almost always worse than before. Russia actually has a rather functional bureaucracy that is holding the country together. All it really needs is decentralization of power, probably similar to the German's model.

This functional bureaucracy is 100% compromised by the parallel power structure, "Putin's Vertical". Pretty much everyone employed by the state, from school teachers who en masse rig elections to the judges who do FSB's/president office bidding, have to be assumed irredeemable. Russia didn't to the "lustrations" that Poland, Czechia, East Germany and some other countries did, and the Hydra survived.

> This functional bureaucracy is 100% compromised by the parallel power structure, "Putin's Vertical".

Nope, it actually works well within it. I'm talking about the bureaucracy that ensures that the water is running, people can get driving licenses, register real estate deals, etc. All the "boring" stuff that keeps the country working.

> Russia didn't to the "lustrations" that Poland, Czechia, East Germany and some other countries did, and the Hydra survived.

Lustrations ("purges") are a bad idea in general, especially for larger countries that don't have a history of democracy.

Want an example? Iraq. The US Army purged all the BAATH members from the new government, replacing them with new people who were inexperienced in day-to-day administration. And then all those exceedingly nice and newly-jobless ex-BAATH-ists went and formed the core of ISIS.

Historically, lustrations worked well only in smaller countries where everyone knew everyone through one or two handshakes, and that still had people who remembered living in a functional democracy.

Re: In Memory of Stiver

#94

Post by jojobas »

cyberax wrote: post #93
jojobas wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This functional bureaucracy is 100% compromised by the parallel power structure, "Putin's Vertical". Pretty much everyone employed by the state, from school teachers who en masse rig elections to the judges who do FSB's/president office bidding, have to be assumed irredeemable. Russia didn't to the "lustrations" that Poland, Czechia, East Germany and some other countries did, and the Hydra survived.

> This functional bureaucracy is 100% compromised by the parallel power structure, "Putin's Vertical". Nope, it actually works well within it. I'm talking about the bureaucracy that ensures that the water is running, people can get driving licenses, register real estate deals, etc. All the "boring" stuff that keeps the country working. > Russia didn't to the "lustrations" that Poland, Czechia, East Germany and some o…

>I'm talking about the bureaucracy that ensures that the water is running, people can get driving licenses, register real estate deals, etc.

Maybe utilities and some other functions that are not related to how Putin enacts his political control can be spared. Not gutting the machine that does - and that's courts, the entire FSB, whole departments of the MVD, large swaths of the education system and regional governments, really need to be gutted and replaced by new people, old ones only allowed back after thorough examination of their track record.

>Lustrations ("purges") are a bad idea in general, especially for larger countries that don't have a history of democracy.

This is an opinion, and it's not supported by facts. Poland is not that small, more than 1/4 the population of Russia, and their lustrations worked very well. No living person there had any memory of democracy at the time they happened.

>Want an example? Iraq. The US Army purged all the BAATH members from the new government, replacing them with new people who were inexperienced in day-to-day administration. And then all those exceedingly nice and newly-jobless ex-BAATH-ists went and formed the core of ISIS.

Way to conflate civic lustrations with a war, and by total destruction by a superpower onslaught at that.

Re: In Memory of Stiver

#95

Post by gradschoolfail »

082349872349872 wrote: post #92
pk-protect-ai wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regardless, under current conditions there is no slim chance of rebellion in Russia. Massive conscription, on the other hand, and of course massive losses of the conscripted may cause an effect similar to 1917. However, the next government will be the same dictatorship as it always was in Russia, just slightly less aggressive toward neighbors.

Do you think there might have been an opportunity during the 90-x to find a different ("Пеpемен, мы ждём пеpемен") attraction basin? (as it is, at least the Yeltsin jokes can, like Brezhnev jokes, be repurposed for US use 2025-2028...)

Slightly ot or maybe not, the educational inflection point was deep in the mid of the Cultural Revolution, which suggests that mass rustications are indeed situations to look into..

(The mechanism is probably that STEMish rusticants began to selforganize learning centres)

COVID might have already started the process of Montanacation — elite diffusion to the hills —for the US (tho 2024 might actually reverse it)

For russians so far, the conscripts are so far drawn disprop from the lows; the tops prefer to emigrate/stay out of the country, so wait a bit.

Re: In Memory of Stiver

#97

Post by 082349872349872 »

gradschoolfail wrote: post #95
082349872349872 wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you think there might have been an opportunity during the 90-x to find a different ("Пеpемен, мы ждём пеpемен") attraction basin? (as it is, at least the Yeltsin jokes can, like Brezhnev jokes, be repurposed for US use 2025-2028...)

Slightly ot or maybe not, the educational inflection point was deep in the mid of the Cultural Revolution, which suggests that mass rustications are indeed situations to look into.. (The mechanism is probably that STEMish rusticants began to selforganize learning centres) COVID might have already started the process of Montanacation — elite diffusion to the hills —for the US (tho 2024 might actually reverse it) For r…

> the conscripts are so far drawn disprop from the lows

Is it still true that bit-wranglers are exempt from conscription?

(in any event, one would hope that bitwrangling would pay well enough to provide anti-conscription cabbage?)

> the tops prefer to emigrate

Is that what Proshay elita![0] is about?

In the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_emigration#Controversy department, I was impressed that Urgant[1] preferred losing his show over retraction.

Lagniappe: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfhV0Sew0j4

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WQIW7aK5Bk

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=njHNHbK9jDI#t=75s

Re: In Memory of Stiver

#98

Post by 082349872349872 »

gradschoolfail wrote: post #95
082349872349872 wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you think there might have been an opportunity during the 90-x to find a different ("Пеpемен, мы ждём пеpемен") attraction basin? (as it is, at least the Yeltsin jokes can, like Brezhnev jokes, be repurposed for US use 2025-2028...)

Slightly ot or maybe not, the educational inflection point was deep in the mid of the Cultural Revolution, which suggests that mass rustications are indeed situations to look into.. (The mechanism is probably that STEMish rusticants began to selforganize learning centres) COVID might have already started the process of Montanacation — elite diffusion to the hills —for the US (tho 2024 might actually reverse it) For r…

> (The mechanism is probably that STEMish rusticants began to selforganize learning centres)

One would think widespread smartphones would help with this? Stuff that in my childhood was only available in university towns is now accessible to almost anyone with an aptitude and an interest...

EDIT: Did Pioneer Houses ever do STEM? "What you've learned, teach a buddy" was a nice slogan...

Re: In Memory of Stiver

#100

Post by cyberax »

jojobas wrote: post #94
cyberax wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This functional bureaucracy is 100% compromised by the parallel power structure, "Putin's Vertical". Nope, it actually works well within it. I'm talking about the bureaucracy that ensures that the water is running, people can get driving licenses, register real estate deals, etc. All the "boring" stuff that keeps the country working. > Russia didn't to the "lustrations" that Poland, Czechia, East Germany and some o…

>I'm talking about the bureaucracy that ensures that the water is running, people can get driving licenses, register real estate deals, etc. Maybe utilities and some other functions that are not related to how Putin enacts his political control can be spared. Not gutting the machine that does - and that's courts, the entire FSB, whole departments of the MVD, large swaths of the education system and regional governmen…

> Not gutting the machine that does - and that's courts, the entire FSB, whole departments of the MVD

The FSB _itself_ needs to be split and de-powered. There should never be a state organization with this amount of power.

However, people who were working there should not just be blindly purged. This way you end up with the Iraq scenario. From the practical standpoint, FSB also contains border guards, law enforcement departments, counter-terrorism, etc. They are all needed in a normal state.

Instead, there should be _personal_ prosecutions of people responsible for political persecution and for the illegal foreign operations that started the war. This is probably far less than 10000 people.

> Poland is not that small, more than 1/4 the population of Russia, and their lustrations worked very well.

Their version was pretty mild, and even then had problems with false documents used to libel even Lech Walesa.

> No living person there had any memory of democracy at the time they happened.

Poland was occupied in 1939, so people who were 20 at that time were 70 by 1990.

> Way to conflate civic lustrations with a war, and by total destruction by a superpower onslaught at that.

That's another argument: you probably won't even _have_ a chance to do a massive purge (never mind if it's a good idea or not). But reforms are a possibility.

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