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Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2024

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Re: Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2024

#91

Post by JetSpiegel »

fekunde wrote: post #90
cjalmeida wrote: post #5

I strongly recommend Acemoglu, Robinson classic book "Why Nations Fail" https://www.amazon.com/Why-Nations-Fail-Origins-Prosperity/d... It's very accessible, no economics background required. Along with Krugman and Kahneman, one of the few economics scholars that take the time to write a book for layman.

After reading "Why Nations Fail", which I really enjoyed, I wondered whether we could develop an LLM with a wide enough context window where I could input the lessons from such books along with data and metrics about a specific country. Then, the AI could prescribe tangible solutions and policy recommendations tailored to that nation's unique situation. I'm curious what an AI system like that might look like. I also…

I thought the Chicago School had already proved blindly applying "policy recommendations" from on high was a receipt for disaster and misery, but sure, let's do the same with AI, this time it will surely work.

Re: Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2024

#92

Post by JetSpiegel »

CyberRymden wrote: post #26
js8 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read the summary from the review and I am not convinced that neoliberal US and EU have a less extractive governance structure than China has, as the authors seem to claim. It's been a decade since the book was published and China is still going strong. We will see.

Do you actually think China has fairer courts, more open financial markets, and better business environment than the EU or US? For the longest time Hong Kong had to fill those gaps for China in order for the country to attract capital. Regardless, even if China does today the explanation still holds considering China only transformed a few decades before the book was written.

I think China is a worse country to live that the US or EU, but a better business environment. China's State Capitalism is simply more efficient than the neoliberalism hellscape that came up from the Soviet Union's collapse.

I see the rest of the world becoming more similar to China than the other way around, unfortunately. The US is already a pseudo-Soviet state economically, and is on the brink of becoming a dictatorship on top of that.

Re: Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2024

#93

Post by nradov »

fekunde wrote: post #90
cjalmeida wrote: post #5

I strongly recommend Acemoglu, Robinson classic book "Why Nations Fail" https://www.amazon.com/Why-Nations-Fail-Origins-Prosperity/d... It's very accessible, no economics background required. Along with Krugman and Kahneman, one of the few economics scholars that take the time to write a book for layman.

After reading "Why Nations Fail", which I really enjoyed, I wondered whether we could develop an LLM with a wide enough context window where I could input the lessons from such books along with data and metrics about a specific country. Then, the AI could prescribe tangible solutions and policy recommendations tailored to that nation's unique situation. I'm curious what an AI system like that might look like. I also…

What's the point? We generally know what economic policies work. But they aren't put into effect due to ideology or special interests. This isn't a problem with a technical solution.

Re: Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2024

#94

Post by cyberax »

coliveira wrote: post #89
cyberax wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is not the army, but military posturing. It can too easily transition into an actual war. Case in point: Russia. Putin's ratings were falling, and he decided to commit "a small victorious war", based on faulty assumptions. And his assumptions were faulty because all the secret agencies were filled with yes-men who were just telling Putin what he wanted to hear. That's the problem with the authoritarian re…

The US starts a new war for posturing every few years. They have the faulty assumption that they can control the world, even as they keep losing wars. So, not a problem unique to Russia.

The US is not in a real danger of becoming an authoritarian state. So any top-level war-mongering is somewhat self-limiting.

And while the US presidents can and do ignore intelligence data, they at least _have_ it.

Re: Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2024

#95

Post by coliveira »

cyberax wrote: post #94
coliveira wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US starts a new war for posturing every few years. They have the faulty assumption that they can control the world, even as they keep losing wars. So, not a problem unique to Russia.

The US is not in a real danger of becoming an authoritarian state. So any top-level war-mongering is somewhat self-limiting. And while the US presidents can and do ignore intelligence data, they at least _have_ it.

> The US is not in a real danger of becoming an authoritarian state

So you're saying democrats are lying? They say that may happen by the next election, so at least 50% of the population believes this is possible.

Moreover, from the point of view of foreign policy the US is already an authoritarian state. People have no say on weather to start or stop a war, anymore than the Russians have.

Re: Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2024

#96

Post by jltsiren »

js8 wrote: post #14
cjalmeida wrote: post #5

I strongly recommend Acemoglu, Robinson classic book "Why Nations Fail" https://www.amazon.com/Why-Nations-Fail-Origins-Prosperity/d... It's very accessible, no economics background required. Along with Krugman and Kahneman, one of the few economics scholars that take the time to write a book for layman.

I read the summary from the review and I am not convinced that neoliberal US and EU have a less extractive governance structure than China has, as the authors seem to claim. It's been a decade since the book was published and China is still going strong. We will see.

You have a short-term perspective. All kinds of governance structures can work for a single human lifetime, if they manage to get the right people to the right places. But those people will eventually retire and die. Good institutions make it more likely that their replacements will also be competent and have the right motivations and incentives.

PRC has enjoyed ~45 years of stability and economic growth under four leaders. Until now, the leaders have retired voluntarily, and there has been an ordered transition of power to the successor. But Xi Jinping is clinging to power in a way his predecessors didn't. If he stays beyond 2027, it will be interesting to see if China can survive his death.

Re: Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2024

#97

Post by blackhawkC17 »

JetSpiegel wrote: post #92
CyberRymden wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you actually think China has fairer courts, more open financial markets, and better business environment than the EU or US? For the longest time Hong Kong had to fill those gaps for China in order for the country to attract capital. Regardless, even if China does today the explanation still holds considering China only transformed a few decades before the book was written.

I think China is a worse country to live that the US or EU, but a better business environment. China's State Capitalism is simply more efficient than the neoliberalism hellscape that came up from the Soviet Union's collapse. I see the rest of the world becoming more similar to China than the other way around, unfortunately. The US is already a pseudo-Soviet state economically, and is on the brink of becoming a dictat…

> I see the rest of the world becoming more similar to China than the other way around, unfortunately.

I hope they enjoy the mediocrity that comes with state-dominated economies.

> The US is already a pseudo-Soviet state economically.

Maybe I'm blind, but I have no idea how someone looks at the USA and concludes this.

Re: Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2024

#98

Post by cyberax »

coliveira wrote: post #95
cyberax wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is not in a real danger of becoming an authoritarian state. So any top-level war-mongering is somewhat self-limiting. And while the US presidents can and do ignore intelligence data, they at least _have_ it.

> The US is not in a real danger of becoming an authoritarian state So you're saying democrats are lying? They say that may happen by the next election, so at least 50% of the population believes this is possible. Moreover, from the point of view of foreign policy the US is already an authoritarian state. People have no say on weather to start or stop a war, anymore than the Russians have.

> So you're saying democrats are lying?

They are not lying. Trump is literally saying that he's going to use the military to suppress his opponents, after all. I just happen to think that the US has far more resilience built into its political system than it seems.

E.g. Project 2025 is terrible and if it's implemented, it'll result in pure hell for the regular people. But a hypothetical Trump administration won't be able to implement even a fraction of it. It'll need many dozens of new laws passed, and probably even new Amendments.

And then there are also individual states that hold a lot of power to sabotage the laws that they don't like. For an example, look at the "sanctuary city" laws in California or Washington.

Mind you, it doesn't mean that a hypothetical Trump administration won't hurt a lot of people. I'm just saying that it won't be able to totally monopolize the political power.

Re: Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2024

#99

Post by nradov »

ninjagoo wrote: post #66
Eumenes wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Krugman Not sure I'd spend time on a Krugman book. He predicted in 1998 that the internet would cease having an economic impact by 2005 and that it would be no greater than fax machines. He's like the Neil deGrasse Tyson of economics.

> He predicted in 1998 that the internet would cease having an economic impact by 2005 and that it would be no greater than fax machines The future is hard to predict. Using that as a reason to discount a Nobel-prize economist's economics-related work sounds like a gap in logic.

If economists can't predict the future then what good are they?

Re: Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2024

#100

Post by JetSpiegel »

blackhawkC17 wrote: post #97
JetSpiegel wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think China is a worse country to live that the US or EU, but a better business environment. China's State Capitalism is simply more efficient than the neoliberalism hellscape that came up from the Soviet Union's collapse. I see the rest of the world becoming more similar to China than the other way around, unfortunately. The US is already a pseudo-Soviet state economically, and is on the brink of becoming a dictat…

> I see the rest of the world becoming more similar to China than the other way around, unfortunately. I hope they enjoy the mediocrity that comes with state-dominated economies. > The US is already a pseudo-Soviet state economically. Maybe I'm blind, but I have no idea how someone looks at the USA and concludes this.

Extremely inequality that keeps increasing, political movements that try to change this are killed in the crib, a dying empire.

Just because the Central Comittee is called Blackrock, doesn't mean the American economy is not being more and more centrally planned. Free Enterprise is dying.

I mean economically, the political system is still "free" (less and less), it's not a dictatorship (yet).

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