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Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

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Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#91
post #53
post #7

It is hard for me to square "This company is a few short years away from building world-changing AGI" and "I'm stepping away to do my own thing". Maybe I'm just bad at putting myself in someone else's shoes, but I feel like if I had spent years working towards a vision of AGI, and thought that success was finally just around the corner, it'd be very difficult to walk away.

My take is that Altman recognizes LLM winter is coming and is trying to entrench.

I don’t think we’re gonna see a winter. LLMs are here to stay. Natural language interfaces are great. Embeddings are incredibly useful.

They just won’t be the hottest thing since smartphones.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#92
Maybe OpenAI is trying to enter a new enterprise phase past its startup era?

They have hired CTO like figures from ex MSFt and so on … which would mean a natural exit for the startup era folks that we have seen recently?

Every company wants to sell itself as some grandiose savior initially ‘organize the world’s information and make it universally accessible’, ‘solve AGI’ but I guess the investors and the top level people in reality are motivated by dollar signs and ads and enterprise and so on.

Not that that’s a bad thing but really it’s a Potemkin village though…

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#93
Gwern predicting this in March:

> Sam Altman has won. [...] Ilya Sutskever and Mira Murati will leave OA or otherwise take on some sort of clearly diminished role by year-end (90%, 75%; cf. Murati's desperate-sounding internal note)

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KXHMCH7wCxrvKsJyn/openai-fac...

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#94
post #24
post #7

It is hard for me to square "This company is a few short years away from building world-changing AGI" and "I'm stepping away to do my own thing". Maybe I'm just bad at putting myself in someone else's shoes, but I feel like if I had spent years working towards a vision of AGI, and thought that success was finally just around the corner, it'd be very difficult to walk away.

> It is hard for me to square "This company is a few short years away from building world-changing AGI" Altmans quote was that "it's possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days", which sounds a lot more optimistic on the surface than it actually is. A few thousand days could be interpreted as 10 years or more, and by adding the "possibly" qualifier he didn't even really commit to that predicti…

Between 1 and 10 thousands of days, so 3 to 27 years.

A range I'd agree with; for me, "pessimism" is the shortest part of that range, but even then you have to be very confident the specific metaphorical horse you're betting on is going to be both victorious in its own right and not, because there's no suitable existing metaphor, secretly an ICBM wearing a patomime costume.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#95
post #39

Plain-text version for those who can’t read images: “ Hi all, I have something to share with you. After much reflection, I have made the difficult decision to leave OpenAI. My six-and-a-half years with the OpenAI team have been an extraordinary privilege. While I'll express my gratitude to many individuals in the coming days, I want to start by thanking Sam and Greg for their trust in me to lead the technical organiz…

I appreciate this, thank you.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#96

My bet is all of these people can raise 20-100M for their own startups. And they are already rich enough to retire. OpenAI is going corporate

If you keep working past $10M net worth (as all these people undoubtedly are) its usually always for legacy. I actually think Sam's vision probably scares them.

$10M doesn't go as far as you'd think in the Bay Area or NYC.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#97

My bet is all of these people can raise 20-100M for their own startups. And they are already rich enough to retire. OpenAI is going corporate

If you keep working past $10M net worth (as all these people undoubtedly are) its usually always for legacy. I actually think Sam's vision probably scares them.

> its usually always for legacy

Legacy is the dumbest reason to work and does not explain the motivation of the vast majority of people that are wealthy.

edit: The vast majority of people with more than $10million are completely unknown so the idea that they care about legacy is stupid.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#99
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Altmans quote was that AGI "could be just a few thousand days away" which sounds a lot more optimistic on the surface than it actually is. I think he was referring to ASI, not AGI.

Isn't ASI > AGI?

Is the S here referring to Sentient or Specialised?

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#100
post #91
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My take is that Altman recognizes LLM winter is coming and is trying to entrench.

I don’t think we’re gonna see a winter. LLMs are here to stay. Natural language interfaces are great. Embeddings are incredibly useful. They just won’t be the hottest thing since smartphones.

It’s a glorified grammar corrector?
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