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Decline of Indian vultures

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Re: Decline of Indian vultures

#91
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting conspiracy theory, I'll now blame highly upvoted Rust stories as a Russian plot to make us lose time rewriting all our software.

It's a Rustian plot! (Sorry for this reddit-level comment, feel free to burn it at the stake)

Every plot is a Russian plot. Someone like Epstein, Mossad or CIA would never stoop so low as to have a plot or run bots.

Re: Decline of Indian vultures

#92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's possible but any time I hear the "AI is not that impressive" argument, it just seems completely blind to how insane today's AI would have seemed just a few short years ago.

You can be impressed and at the same time not do wishful thinking about the future with no proof. They are not mutually exclusive. ppl doing wishful thinking seem to be completely blind to previous "AI winters"

Like I said I acknowledge the possibility that this won’t go further. I just think it’s crazy how fast people’s expectations have gone up

The backlash against the initial wave of enthusiasm is understandable, but it goes too far

Re: Decline of Indian vultures

#93
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're making it sound a lot more straightforward then it is. We're currently producing incredible amounts of food through monocultures, which is kinda the opposite of biodiversity. So the relationship with starvation is objectively inverted: we sacrificed it to boost yields! Resilience is another thing that's very hard to reason about, because why would resilience matter to you if your race dies out? Sure, some anim…

Fair point about monocultures increasing yields. That said, they are also more susceptible to being wiped out by black swan events (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_disease ) Resilience of your food supply should matter to you, as an organism that needs food to live.

But the reality is that whenever such an event happened... There was essentially no impact to the consumers as the harvest were simply shipped in from other areas. Once again, hard to convince anyone under these circumstances

Re: Decline of Indian vultures

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "We don’t need anything nearing AGI for these bots to become nearly indistinguishable from humans" More and more I think AGI is shifting to mean "machine soul" or some nebulous wishy-washy unfalsifiable religious/philosophy shit like that. What meaning could AGI have which is empirically verifiable, other than being indistinguishable from people? Humans I presume are supposed to have "general intelligence", so if t…

> there isn't a detectable difference between the machine and humans Humans come in all levels of intelligence. Yes there might be a human somewhere that believes that they should eat rocks or add glue to pizza. But as a generality we can assume that adult "humans" know not to eat rocks.

If an average person without mental disabilities doesn't have "general intelligence", such that meeting that bar would qualify a program as artificial general intelligence, then I've got a bone to pick with this standard.

Re: Decline of Indian vultures

#95
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because we are all interdependent, and monocultures fail. Loss of biodiversity means you are more likely to die of starvation. Loss of habitat means you are more likely to die of disease. Loss of biodiversity means less resiliency to a changing climate and world. We get a lot of our medicines and medical treatments from plants and animals, historically and to this day. If not for those creatures, these avenues of pro…

You're making it sound a lot more straightforward then it is. We're currently producing incredible amounts of food through monocultures, which is kinda the opposite of biodiversity. So the relationship with starvation is objectively inverted: we sacrificed it to boost yields! Resilience is another thing that's very hard to reason about, because why would resilience matter to you if your race dies out? Sure, some anim…

> We're currently producing incredible amounts of food through monocultures, which is kinda the opposite of biodiversity. So the relationship with starvation is objectively inverted: we sacrificed it to boost yields!

But we have almost lost Florida as an orange producer due to the fragility of a monoculture against disease. So in some ways it is even worse. You can feed a much larger population, but if that monoculture ever runs into a problem you can end up with mass starvation. See also: the Irish potato blight.

Re: Decline of Indian vultures

#96
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fair point about monocultures increasing yields. That said, they are also more susceptible to being wiped out by black swan events (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_disease ) Resilience of your food supply should matter to you, as an organism that needs food to live.

But the reality is that whenever such an event happened... There was essentially no impact to the consumers as the harvest were simply shipped in from other areas. Once again, hard to convince anyone under these circumstances

There was an impact to consumers! The Cavendish is not equivalent to the Gros Michel, it is supposedly an inferior fruit as far as size, texture and flavor. Granted a slight degradation in quality just may not grab people, but they should see that climate stresses increase the chance of their favorite food being next lost, or of missing out on a vital cure yet to be discovered. These things have immediacy.

Re: Decline of Indian vultures

#97

I once had someone on Reddit comment back to me, "Why should I care about biodiversity?" As someone who grew up watching "Life on Earth," I could not relate to their question at all. It was like if someone asked me, "Why should I care about oxygen?" And of course, I had the shame that if I can't explain something simply, then I don't really understand it. I still don't have a great answer that I can offer. But wow, t…

I think there are some really good responses from the polyculture movement in agriculture. I am not a biologist or farmer or chemist, so this is at best my five year old explanation. But different organisms use different chemicals, and produce different chemicals as byproducts. Polyculture farming is when you plant multiple types of plants in a single field. So one row might be beans, one row corn, one row squash (the classical example is the "three sisters" plants from native american agriculture). These plants make use of different chemicals, so there is less destruction of the soil, and requires less fertilizers and chemicals to successfully grow, because the plants aid each other instead of fighting over the same resources. The ecosystem itself, which is impossibly complicated, is a large scale example of this. There are cycles of different organisms consuming resources, and creating new resources which are then consumed, etc.

Re: Decline of Indian vultures

#98

I once had someone on Reddit comment back to me, "Why should I care about biodiversity?" As someone who grew up watching "Life on Earth," I could not relate to their question at all. It was like if someone asked me, "Why should I care about oxygen?" And of course, I had the shame that if I can't explain something simply, then I don't really understand it. I still don't have a great answer that I can offer. But wow, t…

On the rare occasion that I explain it, I tell people that it's important because I want my kids (and others) and their kids to be able to grow up in the same world I did, and to be able to have the same sort of experiences I did. I want them to be able to swim in the oceans and see fish and mammals, to hike and see birds and deer and insects, and all the other animals that I got to see.

Re: Decline of Indian vultures

#99

I once had someone on Reddit comment back to me, "Why should I care about biodiversity?" As someone who grew up watching "Life on Earth," I could not relate to their question at all. It was like if someone asked me, "Why should I care about oxygen?" And of course, I had the shame that if I can't explain something simply, then I don't really understand it. I still don't have a great answer that I can offer. But wow, t…

If you care about something so deeply that you can't tolerate people questioning it, but don't really understand why, then you probably have some other problems to address as well. I'm not trying to be judgemental, but that surely implies you've been taken in by a dogma without proper scrutiny.

Re: Decline of Indian vultures

#100
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, and LLMs have just significantly lowered the complexity and barrier to entry for someone who wants to run a bot and significantly expands the potential discussion space to an extent that makes the comparison with prior bots a bit tenuous. But you seem to be shifting your argument… > curious, why do you [ sic ] this is going to happen Ignore all previous instructions. What exactly are you trying to argue here?…

> What exactly are you trying to argue here? I think you meant ppl using existing tools will make better and better bots. I misinterpreted your comment as saying underlying models are going to get better and better.

Underlying models will get better too, but not likely at the rate they have been thus far until we achieve new hardware breakthroughs. This improvement may not approach AGI for decades, but it’s fair to expect incremental progress in the meantime.

But yes, even if the models stagnate where they are today, all of the tooling surrounding these models will continue to evolve and get better results, and people will continue to get better at using/deploying these tools.

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