Earlier quoted context omitted.
> So a rec can play head up against a top pro like Phil Ivey and can still win, but that victory would be a function of luck rather than skill. Iterate that spot 100x or 1000x, and the rec doesn’t win very often. The variance in poker is extremely high, allowing long-term losing players to often have winning sessions in cash games, and to (often enough) cash and even win tournaments. After the entry ticket is purchas…
> After the entry ticket is purchased (ie, not subtracting its cost in your EV calculation), the long-term losing rec still has positive expectation in a tournament. So does the pro. EV_pro ROI is a standard metric for measuring MTT success. Pros are typically positive, recs are typically negative. Flipping the metric to EV after buy in strikes me as a straw man, but I will roll with it… I am fairly certain that I wo…
That, as you said, makes it trivially true that the pros are infinitely better than the recs. By that metric it doesn't even make sense to have the conversation. The original comment I responded to was: "their chance of winning is 1/10 instead of 1/1000". My thought experiment, far from being a straw man, simply extends that idea from "winning" to "amount made in cashes."
> I am fairly certain that I would take action on the results of a basket of 100 mtt pros being 100x greater than the results of a basket of 100 mtt recs in the wsop ME.
Very unlikely. To give a sense, based on payout structure this year if even a single rec makes the final table (at least one did) that alone puts the number to beat at a minimum of 100M (9th place prize = 1M)... and first is 10M.
> but that variance can be mitigated quite a bit via skill except in “short stack” MTTs that devolve into shovefests relatively early.
No, even deep stack tourneys are still really, really short compared with anything like a "long run" sample. Jonathan Little, the pro who own https://pokercoaching.com/ and has millions in tournament earnings, once went 50 tournaments without even cashing, let alone winning. Daniel Negreanu, arguably one of the best tournament players of all time, recently had a 2 million dollar losing year: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nu-QqzikpWU.
> I will be happy to negotiate terms and have a mutually agreed upon escrow-holder for a bet next year.
I will absolutely take that bet, but you'd need to define some way to select what counts as the pool of pros and the pool of recs. Alternatively -- this wouldn't be a bet but a way to test the theory -- look at the list of everyone who cashed this year and cross reference it with Hendon Mob db or something similar... and define a pro as someone who's had lifetime winners of 300K+ or something. You'd need to control for the number of pros among the entrants as well, but if you're right you'd see the pros represented at 100x their entry proportion in their cashes proportion (that's very rough and doesn't account for size of cash, but it should be an easy enough experiment to do if you want to see that I am correct).