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Coup Attempt in Bolivia

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Re: Coup Attempt in Bolivia

#91

Post by pessimizer »

throw-the-towel wrote: post #43
pessimizer wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't be surprised either, seeing as Arce has gone off-script as if he's been bought and paid for. He wasn't really elected himself, he was elected as a proxy for Morales who had been overthrown and exiled by a coup. He's followed that up with a complete break with Morales. What wouldn't surprise me even more is if this coup were staged to allow Arce the excuse to put the country into martial law before being vo…

How exactly did Arce go off script?

Arce has not been a proxy for Morales, which is who people were actually voting for. That was the script.

Re: Coup Attempt in Bolivia

#92

Post by defrost »

tptacek wrote: post #24
tmpz22 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US involvement in South America is arguably the leading cause of the current instabilities in the region. It is not the sole factor but in order to understand the geopolitics of the region must be taken into account. Knowledge of these US involvements are often not well known in my experience. Consider for example the role of American legislation and consumption in the drug trade and the resulting immigration and cri…

Bolivia has been independent since 1825 and has since then experienced over 190 coups. Nobody can whitewash US involvement in South and Central America in the 20th century, but the US is not the sole cause of Bolivian instability. Perhaps it makes more sense to blame colonialism, which set up the unstable rural/urban indigenous/white duality that has made the place so fragile.

From a geopolitical perspective the single greatest reason for outside meddling in Bolivia today is control (indirect works fine) of the largest lithium reserves on the planet, currently being tussled over by both China and the USofA with some rumours of Saudi investment interests.

These things typically play out with layered shell companies, private mercanary contractors, and local bribes - Eric Prince (USofA) was recently taking Saudi pay to "secure" through bribes, corrupt judges, political allies, and occassional force traditional lands in Zambia for food security, his group is now providing security for Chinese transport of copper from there to Angola.

Such is the world we live.

It is a certainty that interested parties (corporations, governments) are seeking to control Bolivian lithium and equally certain that their tracks well be fairly well covered (but not for ever).

On the resources; see:

https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/12/global-rush-lithiu...

https://news.mongabay.com/2024/04/rapid-growth-of-bolivias-l...

Re: Coup Attempt in Bolivia

#93

Post by tptacek »

defrost wrote: post #92
tptacek wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bolivia has been independent since 1825 and has since then experienced over 190 coups. Nobody can whitewash US involvement in South and Central America in the 20th century, but the US is not the sole cause of Bolivian instability. Perhaps it makes more sense to blame colonialism, which set up the unstable rural/urban indigenous/white duality that has made the place so fragile.

From a geopolitical perspective the single greatest reason for outside meddling in Bolivia today is control (indirect works fine) of the largest lithium reserves on the planet, currently being tussled over by both China and the USofA with some rumours of Saudi investment interests. These things typically play out with layered shell companies, private mercanary contractors, and local bribes - Eric Prince (USofA) was r…

The largest lithium deposit in the world is probably in the US.

Re: Coup Attempt in Bolivia

#94

Post by defrost »

tptacek wrote: post #93
defrost wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From a geopolitical perspective the single greatest reason for outside meddling in Bolivia today is control (indirect works fine) of the largest lithium reserves on the planet, currently being tussled over by both China and the USofA with some rumours of Saudi investment interests. These things typically play out with layered shell companies, private mercanary contractors, and local bribes - Eric Prince (USofA) was r…

The largest lithium deposit in the world is probably in the US.

"probably" .. that's not JORC now, is it?

Re: Coup Attempt in Bolivia

#95

Post by aredox »

deciplex wrote: post #63
aredox wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. And remember that each coup "masterminded" by the USA has found more than willing accomplices in each country, every time. (And one could argue that in many cases, if the US didn't do it, the USSR would have - but I recognize with honesty that does not apply to 100% of the cases, Chile especially). Maybe it is time for those countries to take a good hard look at themselves.

> each coup "masterminded" by the USA has found more than willing accomplices in each country Really? You mean every time we've tried to overthrow a foreign government we've been able to find locals who were willing to give us a hand if they could personally benefit from the arrangement? That's amazing! What are the odds?

If in a country, one can easily find enough people in positions of authority ready to backstab the whole country, then "foreign interference" is only half the problem...

Re: Coup Attempt in Bolivia

#96

Post by thiagoharry »

tptacek wrote: post #45
thiagoharry wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if you care what OAS says, officially deemed fraudulent. I do not care. Later studies contradicted and criticized OAS conclusion. OAS was a player in the 2019 coup: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/26/bolivia-d... https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3621475 > Anez, an unapologetic right-winger appointed by standard constitutional succession rules, What rules? She was not Evo Morales s…

Anez was another in a long line of Bolivian heads of state that terribly abused their power. If you're trying to position me to defend the right-wing elite of any country in South America, you're barking up the wrong tree. But Anez assumed the role of interim president after a constitutional crisis, promised prompt elections, and peacefully transferred power back to Morales party, which then immediately had her impri…

All recent coups in Latin America (and several coups outside) follows the exact same script: overthrown the government and say that is temporary and you will organize new elections. During this time, use propaganda, media, repression and sometimes new laws to weaken the overthrowned group so that they will lose the elections. Foreign countries that support the coup can just initially say that they are worried with the "crisis", but then will rapidly recognize the new elected government, avoiding the embarass of openly support an obvious dictatorship.

This same script is being used at least for 20 years now (I remember being used in Equador). But its last part failed in Bolivia.

Re: Coup Attempt in Bolivia

#97

Post by dredmorbius »

hcarvalhoalves wrote: post #31

Follow the money. https://x.com/panoparker/status/1318157559266762752

NB: the lazy pattern of linking to a brief microblog post rather than giving the payload text is one of my long-standing pet peeves. Particularly as such sites have a longstanding tendency to die (e.g., Google+, Ello, Imzy, Posterous, Blogger, ...)

And for those unable or unwilling to view The Site Formerly Known as Twitter, the payload is:

  Elon Musk: "We will coup whoever we want! Deal with it."

  Bolivia just stopped him from mining in their country. I'd say they dealt with it pretty well.
Archive link: https://archive.is/JjyYL>

Re: Coup Attempt in Bolivia

#98

Post by cpach »

karlzt wrote: post #77
tptacek wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Roughly 10% of HN is in SFBA, 50% in US, and 30% in Europe. SFBA people are a small minority here. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40745850

I wonder how many use VPN and/or Tor.

I would guess somewhere between 5-15%, but I would be surprised if it was over 10%.

Re: Coup Attempt in Bolivia

#99

Post by Aerbil313 »

Aerbil313 wrote: post #18
silvestreh wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of them funded by the US. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Condor

Democracy doesn't work in a US-dominant world. My country is nowhere near Africa yet there have been 7 coup attemps, 4 successful, most backed by US in her 100 year history[2]. The last one didn't succeed and the US is currently protecting the leader of the attempt, refusing to give him us back. Arab leaders are likewise domestically widely regarded as sockpuppets of the USA. On the rare occasion a democratic electio…

For those downvoting, it's no secret and has a long history. See United States involvement in regime change: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_r...

Re: Coup Attempt in Bolivia

#100

Post by thiagoharry »

tptacek wrote: post #89
SauciestGNU wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a really generous reading of events. My reading was that Anez and her cohort orchestrated a successful coup, but couldn't hold power and were forced to concede and hold elections, in which the party which had been deposed in Anez's coup again won the majority vote

Again: the only reason Anez, who occupied the same spot in the Bolivian line of succession that Anthony Blinken does in ours, assumed power was that 3 of Morales supporters higher in the order than her resigned. That's an awfully elaborate coup design!

I wonder why they resigned... Just because they were being attacked, their houses burned, with family members being kidnapped, all while they were prevented from entering government buildings....
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