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New Normal: Majority Of Unemployed Attended College

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Re: New Normal: Majority Of Unemployed Attended College

#91

Perhaps it needs to be made very clear, in case there are some that still are confused about why many people (who study non-technical subjects) choose to go to college (aside from many of the well-known ones like the promises of how it would lead to a 1950s style middle-class lifestyle; because their parents made them; because it's rite-of-passage; or because their friends are there), for /whatever/ major they choose…

This sounds like Star Trek where money is abolished and everyone just simply lives. I've always wondered why anyone would want to join Starfleet? It seems like they went out into space and weren't really compensated in any manner.

I'd say the people working on robots and stuff would have no incentive to work. They would simply become part of the 'non-working' class.

Re: New Normal: Majority Of Unemployed Attended College

#92

I'll just briefly hit the major points of what I think is "wrong with the system" since this is obviously a huge topic. First, public educations are a crap shoot. A high school diploma is a joke, it doesn't even guarantee basic literacy or numeracy. This is a big reason why white collar jobs have increasingly been forced to rely on other credentials. Despite vastly increasing per student spending over the years the q…

Unemployment rates for blue-collar workers are pretty high too, so I'm not sure that's a good solution---or necessarily a good career bet, unless you carefully target a subset of blue-collar work that you're pretty sure will continue to be in high demand.

Construction jobs, for example, are pretty much none to be had at the moment, and wages have been significantly falling in real terms for some decades. My grandfather made a middle-class wage as a carpenter working on house construction in the 1950s, but the crew that built my parents' recent-ish suburban home were all making minimum wage assembling factory-cut materials (and there's oversubscribed demand even for those jobs). Auto mechanic is not a particularly good job market at the moment, either. Skilled welding is indeed in demand, but it takes a substantial amount of time to build up the level of skill that's currently in demand (with the prevalence of machine welds, there's no longer a smooth on-the-job skills progression).

I'm not sure it's actually a better bet than getting an English BA and looking for an office job, though. Both have high unemployment rates currently, but blue-collar-worker unemployment rates are even higher than English-major unemployment rates.

Re: New Normal: Majority Of Unemployed Attended College

#93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who is going to pay for that? The broke US government? If 1/3 of the US pop was given $25k/year, it would amount to 1/4 of our GDP. Until we have ubiquitous power sources, food replicators, cheap teleportation, solved all health problems and sturdy insta-houses, its just a pipe-dream. The social implications would be even worse. You would have about 10% of society supporting about 50% of society, which would easily c…

Not that I necessarily agree with the views of the parent post (I don't know them well enough), but I think you're looking at "now" to argue the impossibility of "then". In other words, I don't think our current society really reflects much of what society will have to become in the fairly near-term future. We already have effectively unlimited energy in the form of the sun (we currently collect only a tiny, tiny fra…

You can't anticipate anything though. Perhaps someday we will have a bucolic utopian society, but we can't make current decisions based on those assumptions.

Re: New Normal: Majority Of Unemployed Attended College

#94
post #12

For some people a college degree can lead to a crippling level of entitlement, and unwillingness to do the kind of work they hoped to escape by attending college. A college degree doesn't preclude someone from waiting tables, cleaning up messes and answering phones. Though many graduates seem to be confused about this. For unemployed colleges grads -- here's a rudimentary formula for success. Start a free website wit…

Good call. Michael Ellsberg wrote a book with that same premise. Here's a review: http://www.pchristensen.com/blog/articles/education-of-milli... (there's also a link to a related Mixergy interview there)

The book doesn't say how to provide jobs for everyone, for someone who needs a nudge in the right direction it could be very helpful, likely the same sort that would create a site like "IWillMopItUp.com".

Re: New Normal: Majority Of Unemployed Attended College

#95

I'll just briefly hit the major points of what I think is "wrong with the system" since this is obviously a huge topic. First, public educations are a crap shoot. A high school diploma is a joke, it doesn't even guarantee basic literacy or numeracy. This is a big reason why white collar jobs have increasingly been forced to rely on other credentials. Despite vastly increasing per student spending over the years the q…

Upper middle class people have never aspired towards such jobs, that is not "becoming less common". That's practically what it means to be upper middle class.

It's also nonsense that unemployment would be lower if more people went to trade schools. That may be a solid choice for an individual to make, but if an extra 30,000 Americans a year chose to become licensed plumbers it would completely wash out the market. Unemployment is high in the US at the moment for demand side reasons.

Finally, trades jobs are cyclical with the construction industry and many tradespeople have spent the last 4-5 years underemployed because of the very sluggish construction industry.

Re: New Normal: Majority Of Unemployed Attended College

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who is going to pay for that? The broke US government? If 1/3 of the US pop was given $25k/year, it would amount to 1/4 of our GDP. Until we have ubiquitous power sources, food replicators, cheap teleportation, solved all health problems and sturdy insta-houses, its just a pipe-dream. The social implications would be even worse. You would have about 10% of society supporting about 50% of society, which would easily c…

Milton Friedman (of all people!) had a pretty worked-out proposal for it, though he was going more for a poverty-line basic income. Basically, everyone (rich and poor) would get a refundable tax credit roughly equal to the poverty line (something like $11k), rather than having a specific cutoff or phase-out. It would implicitly phase out for richer people because a flat $11k credit just doesn't equal too much if you'…

In Australia, we almost match this by (a) having a "Low Income Tax Offset" (being fazed out in favour of an $18k tax free bracket) and (b) having a wide-reaching 'Centrelink' social security scheme. One of our greatest worries as a nation is that we're very dependent on such structural measures, but that we're using a medium-term cyclical benefit (the mining boom) to pay for it.

Re: New Normal: Majority Of Unemployed Attended College

#97
post #9
post #2

Ugh, so depressing... go to college, rack up enormous amounts of debt, and hope to find a job so that you can start paying off the monthly minimums for the seemingly the rest of your life.

In certain fields the "go into debt to pay for an education which will help you get a good job" strategy works well. Unfortunately, governments and educational institutions have taken "college graduates earn X% more and have a Y% lower unemployment rate" statistics and pretended that they apply to all college graduates, regardless of their field. Only a fool would think that a degree in underwater basket weaving woul…

Right, STEM fields.

Except Chemistry, biology, and biochemistry (massive R&D cuts by the pharmaceutical industry has flooded the market with experienced scientists).

Except CivEng (oops, not much new construction).

STEM degrees are often considered harder by employers, so for many jobs that don't strictly require them, they're used as signalling mechanisms in exactly the way that having a degree at all used to be a signal. That means there's a problem with encouraging more people to get such degrees because you flood the market with STEM degrees and repeat the process of devaluing the signal.

What does that leave? CS degrees are currently very much in demand, but will that remain the case for the next 10-20 years? Will it even be true next year? There were a lot of people who had employment trouble after the first bubble burst, I would hate to see that happen again. Not to mention that this is hardly a solution that will work on a large scale. The industry does not require a million new software engineers every year.

Would anyone have predicted ten years ago that going to law school would be a disastrous financial and career decision for many thousands of people? That was supposed to be one of those "safe" direct-to-career educations. Hasn't worked out that way.

Re: New Normal: Majority Of Unemployed Attended College

#98
I feel really lucky that I dropped out of college without accumulating any debt, and that I was never unemployed during the recession. I wish that gave me some ability to advise other people on how to escape the debt+unemployment trap, but other than "be smart and tenacious and lucky", I don't actually know what to say.

Re: New Normal: Majority Of Unemployed Attended College

#99
@Futurebot

You should get a degree if you can, period. Whether you work as a fry cook or not. Education is worth it. It has value, to you and to society, apart from its utility as a factor infiltering people for job positions.

No one wants to see the US become even more uneducated.If you want to get cynical about the job market (and young people dohave a right to be cynical about it), try thinking of it this way. Nodoubt most have heard the old adage, "You need to sell yourself." Anotherway to think of this is that "jobs" are really a question of convincingsomeone else (not necessarily an employer, but maybe a client) to pay you.That is always what it comes down to. This could be an elaborate processinvolving educational degrees, past accomplishments, recommendations,etc. or, in today's world, it might be something like the startupsdiscussed here on HN: You announce a bit of software and a website,and the thundering herd starts clicking. Some of the herd is willingto pay. If that percentage is large enough, you have a runaway success,something like Dropbox.Those who are paying you are not asking to see your resume. The onlypeople who cared that you graduated from MIT were the VC and their clientswho funded you. That is, if you were funded. Don't kid yourself. The mostimportant people you convinced to pay you werenot the investors. Theywere the customers. In the end what mattered is whether customers wereconvinced to pay you. How they arrived at that decision might actuallybe quite simple (and quite arbitrary).

Now, maybe using the web as your medium you manange to become wealthyovernight. But that does not reduce the long term value of your degreefrom MIT. The degree is not necessarily the cause of your success(e.g. maybe you cannot prove that it was). Wealth can be made withor without education. (That has always been true, otherwise smallbusiness, which is the majority of business in the US, would cease toexist.) Technology allows this to happen now in a way never before seenin history.

But...

Education has value to you and to society because education will makeyour life more interesting and an educated society is better than anuneducated one.These are tough times. But things go in cycles. If you skip education,and then years from now things get better, you may regret it. Get aneducation as early as possible (i.e. if you have the money, do it). Itwill benefit everyone in the long term.

Things go in cycles. It's hard to see this when you are young. This is because you have not yet lived through an economic cycle as a person of working age.

Re: New Normal: Majority Of Unemployed Attended College

#100
post #12

For some people a college degree can lead to a crippling level of entitlement, and unwillingness to do the kind of work they hoped to escape by attending college. A college degree doesn't preclude someone from waiting tables, cleaning up messes and answering phones. Though many graduates seem to be confused about this. For unemployed colleges grads -- here's a rudimentary formula for success. Start a free website wit…

You know close to 50% of new grads are unemployed right? This is millions of kids a year who were told to get educated and now have no job waiting for them when they do. Acting like millions of kids should just get a job mopping floors and drop the entitlement is super ignorant and borders on dangerous. I would put a lot of this blame on the fact that tax cuts for the rich that were supposed to "raise demand for work…

I'd like to see a reference for that statistic.

I don't discredit the statistic, but I think it's bit misleading, because we're not able to dig into the data - even just a bit.

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