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AI used well can restore middle class jobs [pdf]

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Re: AI used well can restore middle class jobs [pdf]

#91
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If AI levels the playing field so dramatically, the notion of middle class will entirely evaporate since everyone's purchasing power equalizes We can study this by looking at examples! Slovenia (where I'm from) has the 3rd lowest gini index in the world[1]. Meaning we are the 3rd most egalitarian country in the world with close to zero income inequality. You would think this is fantastic, but in practice it means e…

I'm very eager to understand this. If there are no rich people to tax, then who owns the unaffordable real estate?

> If there are no rich people to tax, then who owns the unaffordable real estate?

People like my mom who bought their place 20 years ago. Or like my grandparents who bought their house 50 years ago.

But there's not enough new investment to increase supply. In large part because there aren't enough people with liquid wealth to provide said supply.

And none of the people who bought decades ago are selling because they need somewhere to live and can't afford to buy at current prices. Any gains they've made would be immediately eaten away by the new purchase.

You couldn't do something like a wealth tax on these people because they have very little cashflow to pay those taxes with. And it's not like they aren't using their homes, so an under-use tax wouldn't work either. You could try a land value tax, but again there's no cashflow to collect that from and nowhere for these people to go if they're forced to sell.

Re: AI used well can restore middle class jobs [pdf]

#92
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Additionally, the notion of a middle class relies on a wage differential. If AI levels the playing field so dramatically, the notion of middle class will entirely evaporate since everyone's purchasing power equalizes. Yup, and that is going to be the defining problem of the next decade - IMHO even more than climate change and most other environmental issues. The lower classes aren't going to be threatened by AI, no…

Alarmism aside, there are ways to mitigate this outcome. Take your comment: > or human labor will be cheaper than a robot replacing it One option is to create an automation tax, which makes human labor more competitive while also supplanting the income taxes that are lost due to automation. That's just one example, but like so many problems that are of man-made origin, there are also potential solutions of man-made o…

> One option is to create an automation tax

Since everything is going to get automated, this is one of the more complex ways of getting to the same place: industry taxes that pay for a universal income.

My take is just as radical, but makes more philosophical and moral sense (to me).

All newly discovered non-human made resources are considered a common inheritance. Industry (whoever) gets bounties for discovery, and bids to extract, with that money getting distributed to everyone evenly.

What I like about it: inheritance is considered a moral transaction, joint inheritance of the planet is an ideal we often give lip service to, flat distribution does not favor or disfavor anyone, and this distribution method doesn't take anything from anyone (after a gradual transition to the new regime).

The value of total natural resources extracted is going to increase over time, even as unit pricing goes down. Access to resources beyond Earth will give the value of new resources a big boost.

Something will have to radically change, regardless.

Re: AI used well can restore middle class jobs [pdf]

#93

One new job which I believe will be high paying and lot of people will be able to do, in the post-AI world => Content verification and moderation. With so many bots and fake content, I don't want to waste my time on low quality stuff. I want other humans to verify it, test it, validate it etc. and then only it should see my eyes. Those platforms which will employ this approach will have better content coming to timel…

>high paying and lot of people will be able to do Generally speaking, this is an oxymoron.

ah, thanks for pointing out.

Re: AI used well can restore middle class jobs [pdf]

#94
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>high paying and lot of people will be able to do Generally speaking, this is an oxymoron.

This is already playing out in India and Africa as people are paid $1/day to classify training data.

right. I am just talking more from perspective of actual content quality measurement. Like youtube videos will explode once SORA AI becomes available for general use by OpenAI. Deepfakes and all I feel need some sort of trust driven network of humans to take a final call. I am just thinking out loud.

Re: AI used well can restore middle class jobs [pdf]

#95
post #73
post #19

This person assumes AI is going to stay in its current form: a technology that requires an expert operator to help accomplish tasks. Most people are afraid of “next-level” AI, where no operator is required. If trucks can be moved without anyone at the wheel, truck driving is a job that won’t exist anymore. As simple as that. Whether trucks can be 100% autonomous remains to see.

On the other hand, offshoring of manufacturing and the emergence of computers should have reduced the workforce but we saw the opposite happen. There might not be truck drivers in the future but maybe those people will just be working different jobs, like how I am not a blacksmith making horseshoes today.

One should not assume a linear relationship with technological progress and employment. Just because people find substitutes for work at a certain rate doesn’t mean this will continue. The rate of finding a suitable substitute will plummet, and I will tell you why.

As technology becomes more intelligent, the human comparative advantage shrinks. But what is likely to happen? Don’t look to the past. Look at the fundamentals of the system dynamics.

Consider an analogy. The differential equation that governs blackbody radiation depends on the difference between the object and the environment. Similarly, a person’s earning capability is proportional to the difference between their capability and the next best option. As the next best option gets better and better, the human differential advantage craters.

Max Tegmark uses the metaphor of a rising ocean to signify the ever greater capabilities of intelligent machines.

AI isn’t just coming for low-skilled jobs. It isn’t just supplementing knowledge work. AI will take more and more intellectually demanding jobs. This arguably doesn’t even require AGI. This just requires industry deploying capable AI’s that can do enough tasks to replace humans one industry at a time.

So people that have an ownership stake in these AIs will do fine.

My take: The others should demand a universal basic income. How do we find ways to allow people to live good lives? People that weren’t lucky enough to be born into the right places in society don’t deserve to be displaced by AI.

If you read the AI literature, I’m not alone in what I’ve said above.

Granted, I’m also not offering particular time frames and not covering all future scenarios. But what I’m saying is more considered than the usual default ‘reasoning’ you hear people say.

Re: AI used well can restore middle class jobs [pdf]

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm very eager to understand this. If there are no rich people to tax, then who owns the unaffordable real estate?

People who don't have income and other taxable economic activity in the country.

If they have any interest in the country, they have taxable activity.

Whether the government wants to tax it is a different question. Usually they do not.

Re: AI used well can restore middle class jobs [pdf]

#97
post #71
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, we can also say that we expect air traffic controllers generate at least their $132k/ year in value. Crossing guards seem to have a similar role and in theory could be generating the same value, but at the margin they're probably not - you'd expect hiring another one would be worth some significant fraction of the $132k to railway companies, but they're not competing to hire more of them. So if AI enables every…

> we can also say that we expect air traffic controllers generate at least their $132k/ year in value This is an important distinction that the author misses. People are paid according to their value to the economy, not their value to society. So, even if the jobs were similar in expertise, the crossing guard would likely not make as much because the ATC provides more to the economy. *FWIW, I'm not saying this is mor…

Nobody is paid according to their value. They are paid according to their leverage.

PhDs provide an immense amount of value but have very little leverage.

Workers who unionize and use their power effectively have more leverage than those who do not.

Land owners contribute precisely 0 value but hold leverage in the form of a legal title.

Re: AI used well can restore middle class jobs [pdf]

#98
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> one where you can comfortably afford living, fun, saving, etc I think is most people's interpretations My understanding is that most people's understanding of "middle class" is "about 20% richer than me", and that this remains true regardless of how rich one is. Most people, for most of the years since Joseph Marie Jacquard realised he could control a loom with punched cards, the Red Queen race of automation has gi…

> and if you have a completely efficient market then nobody can extract any profits because competition drives margins to zero… That's nonsense. It's not just businessmen that compete for consumer's money. Consumers compete for businessmen's money as well. Suppose a widget-making enterprise made 3% profit on it's capital. What's the sensible thing a widget maker should do? Obviously, fire his employees, sell or scutt…

> That's nonsense. It's not just businessmen that compete for consumer's money. Consumers compete for businessmen's money as well.

I wrote "if", and then provided a citation that the clause is false.

> Suppose a widget-making enterprise made 3% profit on it's capital. What's the sensible thing a widget maker should do? Obviously, fire his employees, sell or scuttle his machines, turn everything into cash and turn the cash into 4.313% treasury bonds.

This seems to be even more of a flawed toy model as the words of mine which your complaining about.

Even assuming that's the same period so these are equivalent (3% per sale but you make a widget in 4 hours and sell them just as fast is much more than 4.313% per year): Why does a treasury bond earn interest in the first place? How does the government cover this cost?

The usual answer to the latter is "the bond is to raise money for a thing the government wants to do, in order to boost the economic output of the country, thus future taxes pay for it". If they set the interest rate so high that everyone laid off all their workers, this would not be effective, so a government would not do it.

You also suggest they may sell their machines: to whom? If everyone is doing this, there is no market to sell to.

--

Now consider: an investor has investment opportunities of 2% and 3% return. The economic choice is 3%, you are a widget maker promising this, they invest in your business.

Your competitor knows your profit margin and your costs, they know that if they can make widgets at the same cost then they can charge 3% and get a share of the same customers… except that both producers have fixed costs as well as per-widget costs, and the market size is not in their power to change.

The competitor's options:

1) Continue to compete at the same profit margin

2) Undercut your prices: if all the customers are perfectly rational spheres in a vacuum, then they will immediately switch supplier even with an infinitesimal price reduction, significantly increasing their sales at the cost of yours

3) Increase their prices in order to promise a higher return on investment to their investors — but they know that if they do this, homo-economicus customers will all reject their widgets in favour of yours, and that their business will therefore earn nothing, and they know that their investors know this too

4) Leave the market entirely, potentially allowing you to become a monopoly and raise your profit margin (to maximise their options within the supply/demand curve limits)

Option 2 is the game theoretic choice on any given round, but it's not a one-shot game and you as the original widget company get to respond before running out of money. The whole thing is symmetric, so you tend towards no profit even though you'd like to collude because it's a prisoner's dilemma payoff matrix.

This is also symmetric with regard to different industries, so switching from widgets to gadgets in order to boost return on investment merely changes the players and not the, ah, game.

What slows this process down includes, but is not limited to (because I'm not an economist):

1) Customers aren't perfect spheres of economic rationality

2) People don't know all their price options

3) People are lazy

4) Your costs aren't likely to be exactly the same as your competitor's costs

These[0] reasons are why markets aren't efficient.

[0] and I would hope many other things, because otherwise this topic is simpler than I expected

Re: AI used well can restore middle class jobs [pdf]

#99
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People who don't have income and other taxable economic activity in the country.

If they have any interest in the country, they have taxable activity. Whether the government wants to tax it is a different question. Usually they do not.

> Whether the government wants to tax it is a different question. Usually they do not.

We're talking about a formerly socialist European country here. Not everywhere is USA :)

Income tax in Slovenia goes up to 50% and VAT (similar to sales tax) is an eyebleeding 22%. Capital gains taxes can be as high as 25%. Slovenia is not afraid to tax people don't worry.

https://spot.gov.si/en/info/taxes/taxes/

Re: AI used well can restore middle class jobs [pdf]

#100
post #64
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The whole idea of paying people more than they are worth as an economic unit, a key goal of the union movement No, it wasn't. A company can't survive long paying all its employees more than they're worth. The goal of unions was, at least as far as pay is concerned, only to reduce the margin that was skimmed off of employee value by employers.

That assumes total victory by management over labor. Which is why workers need to be organized. Samuel Gompers, 1890, arguing for an 8-hour day. "What we want to consider is, first, to make our employment more secure, and, secondly, to make wages more permanent, and, thirdly, to give these poor people a chance to work. The laborer has been regarded as a mere producing machine ... but back of labor is the soul of man…

The quote doesn’t make sense, labor is pretty much a commodity for the vast vast majority of people. Almost by definition.

I would say at most 1 out of 50 are genuinely really unique in some way, and that’s being generous, the rest of the population are just regular average Joes or not too far off.

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