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How to Start Google

paulgraham.com

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Re: How to Start Google

#91

Post by teucris »

duggan wrote: post #76
eddieroger wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was sad to search for the word "luck" and come up empty. You can do everything right and still fail. You can do everything wrong and win. Sometimes you're just in the right place at the right time, and that external factor is completely out of your control and can be the difference you need.

I don't disagree that luck is a factor, but what can you do with that information other than console yourself when it doesn't work out?

Learn how to manage bets. Some people have the resources to fail many times and keep going. Others do not. Knowing that a huge portion of starting a business is luck, you can better weigh your options and hopefully select different opportunities depending on your situation.

And, in the unfortunately common case, recognize when you cannot take any bets and instead focus on getting yourself to a place where you can, rather than betting everything and losing everything.

Re: How to Start Google

#92

Post by zeroxfe »

dekhn wrote: post #37

Paul is fundamentally wrong with one thiing here: Larry knew google was going to be huge from the beginning. His brother Carl was already a multimillionare in tech and taught him everything required to set up a future successful company. Larry made it clear to me that he always planned Google to be a large cash-generating cow to invest in long-term AGI and there were only a few times at the beginning when he truly fe…

> Paul is fundamentally wrong with one thiing here: Larry knew google was going to be huge from the beginning.

Nobody can know such a thing -- especially turning around a billion-dollar business, a thing with a near-zero prior probability. It's more reasonable to say that Larry had the drive, the aptitude, and the resources to maximize his odds (which would still be low.)

Re: How to Start Google

#93

Post by mitthrowaway2 »

verelo wrote: post #38
Scubabear68 wrote: post #23

This essay glosses over the fact that most startups die a horrible death and earn little to no money for the founders. Somewhere in this essay it needs to say “99% of you who try this will fail”.

if i had a 1 in 100 shot of becoming google I'd just do it 100 times. I'm pretty sure its more like 99.99999%

I think each earnest attempt would probably occupy about 3 years of your lifespan, so you probably can try at most 20 times. If these are independent, then it's still an 82% chance of failure. But successive attempts after repeated failures might also make it harder to attract confidence from investors, not to mention loss of your own self-confidence. And if you finally succeed in founding Google when you're 80, you might find that you don't have that much use for the money anymore, nor much interest in running Google.

Re: How to Start Google

#94

Post by ericd »

scarface_74 wrote: post #56
ericd wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They might have been better off financially - statistically, they probably would've been. But even my failed startups were more rewarding experiences by far than working in large companies. And it doesn't preclude you from going and getting paid too much at a big tech co afterwards if it doesn't work. This field has been so lucrative recently that you can generally afford to not be earning at peak potential for a bit…

I bet you had parents or some other financial nest egg to fall back on to support your addiction to food and shelter. Yes most people would rather not work to support those addictions I mentioned. But that’s what most people have to do.

Yes, I am blessed to have wonderful parents who would let me move back in. Fortunately, I only got to the "crashing on friends' couches and at my girlfriend/now wife's place" phase. Great way to tell if someone's worth marrying, by the way, partly moving in while appearing to have slim financial prospects.

Obviously it's not right for everyone, nothing is. But it's right for more people than the number who do it, and it's worth letting the others know it's an option. A similar talk by PG at my university is why I realized that this was a realistic option, and I'm incredibly grateful he gave it.

Re: How to Start Google

#95

Post by daveguy »

tomhoward wrote: post #29
suyash wrote: post #18

Ok, so I am having a hard time buying the idea that just make a fun project if you want to create a something like 'Google'. Startup 101 teaches us that you need to solve a painful problem that lot of people have, that is the best way to create 'Google', so isn't the advise contradictory?

His advice is: - Work on a personal project that is motivating to you (obviously you won't work on it if it's not motivating to you) - It's a good sign if the project you're motivated to work on solves a problem that you and your friends care a lot about, because there's a good chance many more people will also want that problem solved and will buy/use your product. Sure, plenty of big companies were started via diff…

> Sure, plenty of big companies were started via different paths, but not many were founded by kids barely out of high school.

And neither was Google. Sergey Brin and Larry Page both hold masters degrees in Computer Science from Stanford.

Re: How to Start Google

#96

Post by teucris »

verelo wrote: post #38
Scubabear68 wrote: post #23

This essay glosses over the fact that most startups die a horrible death and earn little to no money for the founders. Somewhere in this essay it needs to say “99% of you who try this will fail”.

if i had a 1 in 100 shot of becoming google I'd just do it 100 times. I'm pretty sure its more like 99.99999%

Apart from the math being off there, who do you know who has the time and resources to try and start 100 startups? Most people barely have the time and resources for 1.

Re: How to Start Google

#97

Post by Keyframe »

lnxg33k1 wrote: post #72
verelo wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if i had a 1 in 100 shot of becoming google I'd just do it 100 times. I'm pretty sure its more like 99.99999%

I always wondered why people would ask to analyse the chances of a coinflip during logical interviews, according to you, after 2 flips you have both result happening? Its not like that, if you have 1 in 100 chances of making it, each time you re try you have a 1 in 100 chances

right, parent probably isn't aware of complement rule. Sibling comment properly calculated 63.4% probability of at least one success in 100 trials where each has 1% of success.

Re: How to Start Google

#98

Post by zeroxfe »

ak_111 wrote: post #90

Am surprised PG gave this talk at a UK school without mentioning an important assumption that they will need to migrate to the US in his opening paragraph. All the examples he mentioned Google, himself and the Irish Stripe founders had to do the same for their startups. Sadly in the UK all the current unicorn "startups" are a bit iffy: XTX (high frequency hedgefund), betfair (betting company), tripledot studios (Zyng…

> Am surprised PG gave this talk at a UK school without mentioning an important assumption that they will need to migrate to the US in his opening paragraph.

Seems kinda reasonable for a motivational speech not to mention it (even assuming it's entirely true.)

Re: How to Start Google

#99

Post by scarface_74 »

ericd wrote: post #94
scarface_74 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I bet you had parents or some other financial nest egg to fall back on to support your addiction to food and shelter. Yes most people would rather not work to support those addictions I mentioned. But that’s what most people have to do.

Yes, I am blessed to have wonderful parents who would let me move back in. Fortunately, I only got to the "crashing on friends' couches and at my girlfriend/now wife's place" phase. Great way to tell if someone's worth marrying, by the way, partly moving in while appearing to have slim financial prospects. Obviously it's not right for everyone, nothing is. But it's right for more people than the number who do it, and…

So the secret of being able to fail at a startup is being able to sponge off of other people who do have jobs at the types of companies you want to avoid working for?

Re: How to Start Google

#100

Post by j7ake »

duggan wrote: post #76
eddieroger wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was sad to search for the word "luck" and come up empty. You can do everything right and still fail. You can do everything wrong and win. Sometimes you're just in the right place at the right time, and that external factor is completely out of your control and can be the difference you need.

I don't disagree that luck is a factor, but what can you do with that information other than console yourself when it doesn't work out?

Not over leverage yourself such that if you fail you would be unable to recover.
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