Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage • Hacker News Board

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#91

Post by 2024throwaway » Wed, Mar 13, 2024, 5:38 PM UTC

willcipriano wrote: post #69

throwitaway222 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you do the right "step-up" programs and purchasable housing becomes extremely cheap around the country, it will solve itself. There are a lot of homeless people in Oakland that if found out they can buy a house in Kentucky and afford it with a restaurant dish-cleaning job, they would move. Stop treating the homeless as "shippable containers" they have agency.

The dish washer jobs pays less than minimum wage under the table, beacuse the government flew desperate people from the poorest part of the planet to town to compete with the existing dishwashers.

> beacuse the government flew desperate people from the poorest part of the planet to town to compete with the existing dishwashers.

Gonna need some sources on this one.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#92

Post by happyopossum » Wed, Mar 13, 2024, 5:39 PM UTC

rybosworld wrote: post #57

Every single major population center that has distorted (high) housing costs relative to income, also has very strong protections for the existing home owners (NIMBY). "There are no coincidences..." The solution is terrifyingly simple: don't allow existing residents to block new housing developments. If they don't like it, they can move. This will probably never happen in the U.S., because the government no longer fu…

> because the government no longer functions as intended

This seems contrary to what you're stating - local government exists to represent the interests of local residents. Protecting those residents from external forces is completely in-line with their mandate.

> If they don't like it, they can move.

A person who owns land somewhere should have more sway over local politics than a megacorp developer from another state or country. How about that developer moves their project somewhere else if they don't like it?

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#93

Post by cortesoft » Wed, Mar 13, 2024, 5:39 PM UTC

dixie_land wrote: post #87

rybosworld wrote: post #57

Every single major population center that has distorted (high) housing costs relative to income, also has very strong protections for the existing home owners (NIMBY). "There are no coincidences..." The solution is terrifyingly simple: don't allow existing residents to block new housing developments. If they don't like it, they can move. This will probably never happen in the U.S., because the government no longer fu…

If they don't like it, they can move. It is funny how people criticize the US "colonialism" yet feel entitled that they should be able to move into any neighborhood and drive out current inhabitants.

Do you think we should not allow specific groups of people to live in certain areas?

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#94

Post by tempsy » Wed, Mar 13, 2024, 5:39 PM UTC

spankalee wrote: post #43

tempsy wrote: post #22

There's a shortage of detached single family homes in desirable cities and suburbs. If you just want to rent an apartment there's an oversupply from overbuilding during the pandemic.

I don't think there's much, if any, of an over supply of apartments. The people I've seen who try to teach vacancies show that new buildings get to nearly full occupancy within a year or so. That's pretty reasonable if you need to rent a few hundred units at once. If anything, there's a massive under-supply of 3+br apartments large enough for families, due to double-loaded corridor designs that are almost required to…

I’m not sure if you’re talking about a specific metro or just generally but there is an ongoing financial crisis among multifamily developers. The idea that every new apartment complex is filled in a certain time is a very broad and incorrect statement.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#95

Post by lanfeust6 » Wed, Mar 13, 2024, 5:40 PM UTC

Auracle wrote: post #61

throwitaway222 wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are studies - there are more vacation units than homeless people in the United States - like double.

Homeless people are largely homeless because of other life circumstances (drug addiction, mental illness), not affordability.

This is wrong. Homelessness scales with affordability, not mental illness or addiction rates. This is why San Fransisco and LA have the highest rates in the country. Noah Smith writes about this at length, the data is very clear.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#96

Post by ejb999 » Wed, Mar 13, 2024, 5:40 PM UTC

dubcanada wrote: post #32

If there is one industry that is the most resistant to change, it's the construction industry. There are still people who have been roofing for 50 years and refuse to change a single thing they do and learned 50 years ago. Saying a bunch of glulam will solve the issue is just incorrect. Wood is fantastic material. But using half a forest to build a 2000sqft house is certainly not the direction we should be going, we…

Honestly, if I had to choose between buying a house built 50 years ago, or one today - I personally would take the older one. Nothing scares me more (relative to owning a house) than buying a brand new one.

If it has been around for fifty years, it has been tested - may have some things wrong with them, but you usually know what you are dealing with and usually the skill was better and materials better. Heck, my parents house is now 250 years old, and still as solid as can be.

A brand new one where the builder was trying to save money by using the latest and greatest techie products, and may or may not how to install it properly? No thanks.

To each their own though - I know plenty of folks that wouldn't even consider buying a 'used' house.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#97

Post by dixie_land » Wed, Mar 13, 2024, 5:41 PM UTC

lanfeust6 wrote: post #88

dixie_land wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they don't like it, they can move. It is funny how people criticize the US "colonialism" yet feel entitled that they should be able to move into any neighborhood and drive out current inhabitants.

Who said anything about driving out? And neighborhoods belong to municipalities, voters ultimately decide, not your small cabal of neighbors.

I agree the voters should decide, and in this case they happen to side with NIMBY

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#98

Post by xyzelement » Wed, Mar 13, 2024, 5:41 PM UTC

rybosworld wrote: post #57

Every single major population center that has distorted (high) housing costs relative to income, also has very strong protections for the existing home owners (NIMBY). "There are no coincidences..." The solution is terrifyingly simple: don't allow existing residents to block new housing developments. If they don't like it, they can move. This will probably never happen in the U.S., because the government no longer fu…

You seem to be coming from the perspective that people who don't live in a place should have more say over the nature of that place than those who do live there.

To put it in your terms, why does it make more sense to tell existing residents "your place has to change and you can move if you don't like it" vs channel the new residents to other places where more housing is available and is available cheaper.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#99

Post by pixl97 » Wed, Mar 13, 2024, 5:41 PM UTC

dubcanada wrote: post #32

If there is one industry that is the most resistant to change, it's the construction industry. There are still people who have been roofing for 50 years and refuse to change a single thing they do and learned 50 years ago. Saying a bunch of glulam will solve the issue is just incorrect. Wood is fantastic material. But using half a forest to build a 2000sqft house is certainly not the direction we should be going, we…

Melting down trash that will offgas for the next few decades and putting it in close proximity to people sounds like a great way to boost cancer rates.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#100

Post by throwitaway222 » Wed, Mar 13, 2024, 5:42 PM UTC

TylerE wrote: post #86

throwitaway222 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you do the right "step-up" programs and purchasable housing becomes extremely cheap around the country, it will solve itself. There are a lot of homeless people in Oakland that if found out they can buy a house in Kentucky and afford it with a restaurant dish-cleaning job, they would move. Stop treating the homeless as "shippable containers" they have agency.

Such houses do not exist. A minimum wage dish washing job barely pays enough to eat off of. Your gross take home from a minimum wage part time job is $145/week. Before all taxes and deductions. You can’t afford a closet is crack hiuse on that “salary” even in the boonies. Even in my LCOL areas places that were like $400/month 5 or 6 years ago are over $1000/month.

I think you missed the thread - we're making it nearly impossible for someone to own a rental, it would flood the market with purchasable homes - cratering home prices potentially making the medium drop from $400k to $100k (at least for a certain class of homes), create programs for homeless people to get loans - some kind of step-up, combined with a job, and the homeless would suddenly be home owners and become people contributing to the world again.