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Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

npr.org

91–100 of 122 posts

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#91
post #49

So a Gallup poll that doesn't ask about violent crime is used as evidence that people are misguided about violent crime? How does that work?

I maintain my position that "the content is horseshit" should be added to the list of reasons to flag a submission. Lot of poorly-researched nonsense stays on the front page far too long.

That is exactly my main criteria for flagging articles.

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#92

> "The national picture shows that murder is falling. We have data from over 200 cities showing a 12.2% decline ... in 2023 relative to 2022," Asher said, citing his own analysis of public data. He found instances of rape, robbery and aggravated assault were all down too. > A Gallup poll released in November found 77% of Americans believed there was more crime in the country than the year before. And 63% felt there w…

Phone scams are at an all time high. The same for identity theft and other forms of fraud. That article avoids it but I'm sure it's on people's minds. The FTC reported Friday that more than $10 Billion was stolen via fraud in 2023 (+14% from 22).[1]

Talking about crime writ large and only selecting homelessness and murder is such a narrow view of crime that it seems almost meaningless.

So I did some digging. I found crime trends in US Cities as put together by the Council on Criminal Justice[2] in mid 2023. Motor Vehicle Theft is up over 30% and homicide is down 9%. Even that doesn't even attempt to touch fraud (ctrl+f for fraud and scam both came up empty). The initial article says only "some nonviolent crimes like car theft are up in certain cities". This seems clearly contradicted by the other article I found.

The only thing clear to me having done this particular exercise is that probably both the reporting and the polling here are inadequate and incomplete, and that the people who are most being hurt aren't going to get one lick of help.

[1]https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2024/02/... [2]https://counciloncj.org/mid-year-2023-crime-trends/

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#93

In NYC, you can get robbed and beat up, and the NYPD will refuse to file a report. There's your 'lack' of crime

Ah, here in Philadelphia, we've gotten used to the police response of "there's nothing we can do"

Officer, I have footage of the person committing assaults, we have several witnesses, including several victims, and oh look, that's him walking past.

"Oh yeah, we know about that guy. If you see something happening, call 911. Nothing I can really do."

911, meanwhile, rings out, because of staff shortages.

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#94
post #56
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I maintain my position that "the content is horseshit" should be added to the list of reasons to flag a submission. Lot of poorly-researched nonsense stays on the front page far too long.

I flag these articles but no one cares. People upvote based on politics, and downvote permissions are restricted.

> I flag these articles but no one cares.

Not sure what you mean--it seems like most articles that touch on politics get flagged (as this one did). Just like with upvoters, it is impossible to know whether those who flagged it did so because of politics or because they thought the article was of poor quality.

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#95
post #19

"The number of murders across the country surged by nearly 30% between 2019 and 2020..." "We have data from over 200 cities showing a 12.2% decline ... in 2023 relative to 2022,...." It's so annoying that even "good" news outlets like NPR are incompetent when it comes to showing statistical data. There is no good reason to mix city rates vs country rates or speak only in percentages instead of absolute numbers. Some…

That's a neat page. The data goes back to 1985. The homicide rate in 2021 was 6.8/100,000, which is the same as it was in 1997. 2022's 6.3 is the same as 1998.

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#97
It doesn’t matter what the numbers say, this is about emotions and anecdotes.

It’s about as safe as ever for children, and yet most parents think it’s too dangerous for their kids to go to school on their own, which used to be common place and we had far less technology to help.

People will tell you the world is overall more dangerous and that’s absolutely not the case.

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#98
post #47
post #3

The media and certain political interests in the US have an interest in making everyone afraid of crime. The former needs it for ratings (if it bleeds it leads) and the latter to scare you into voting for them. There are a handful of cities having property crime epidemics due to bad local policies, but crime overall continues to fall.

And other political interests have an interest in making everyone think crime is down, to stop voters from looking elsewhere. They headline is based on a thin slice of data, that crime is down from 2022 to 2023, despite being up far far more on 2023. Then it mocks people for saying on a 2023 survey that they perceive crime as being up, based on their allegedly invalid ife experiences in 2020-2022. It's the same kind…

[deleted]

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#99
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Carjacking is rampant in large part because of what Kia did, which really ought to land that company in a lake of civil liability. Carjacking, at least as it's practiced in Chicagoland, starts with a burner car that rolls up on the victim to disgorge the armed robbers. Kias, which can be hotwired with a broken USB cable, offered carjackers a literal citywide fleet of burner vehicles.

That isn't carjacking. That's auto theft. Carjacking is when a criminal takes over a running car, oftentimes via threat of violence. No interlock is stopping that.

Reread the comment and you'll see it's about how easy auto theft enables carjacking.

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#100
post #47
post #3

The media and certain political interests in the US have an interest in making everyone afraid of crime. The former needs it for ratings (if it bleeds it leads) and the latter to scare you into voting for them. There are a handful of cities having property crime epidemics due to bad local policies, but crime overall continues to fall.

And other political interests have an interest in making everyone think crime is down, to stop voters from looking elsewhere. They headline is based on a thin slice of data, that crime is down from 2022 to 2023, despite being up far far more on 2023. Then it mocks people for saying on a 2023 survey that they perceive crime as being up, based on their allegedly invalid ife experiences in 2020-2022. It's the same kind…

The overall trend in violent crimes like homicide has been down since the early 1990s:

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/murd...

There was a spike in 2020. If you wanted to blame an administration you'd blame Trump since it was toward the end of his term, but it almost certainly has more to do with COVID related mental health issues and disruption.

Overall crime rate shows a similar pattern:

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/crim...

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