Live data from Hacker News

Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

bloomberg.com

91–100 of 157 posts

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you and the op are both missing that the vast majority of those mid skilled jobs still exist, they just exist in countries whose labor costs are drastically lower. When you realize that, you then realize that betting that your workers will be able to maintain a quality gap large enough to justify keeping them around is extremely questionable over the medium to long term because you are assuming some combinati…

I'm not sure waiting for the rest of the world to catch up is a good strategy as there always seems to be somewhere else that is still willing to work for less. I suspect if manufacturing ever did come back it would be automated manufacturing.

Geopolitics and military affairs can override labor cost issues to a limited extent. The global supply chain that was enabled by Pax Americana after WW2 is gradually breaking down. The US Navy is no longer willing or able to ensure worldwide freedom of navigation and so shipping on some major routes has become slower and less reliable. Sanctions and protectionist measures are fracturing the world into regional rather than global trading blocs. And governments are increasingly willing to subsidize strategic manufacturing industries (especially weapons) in order to avoid being dependent on unreliable trading partners.

Of course automation levels will continue to increase as they always have since the Industrial Revolution.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think you and the op are both missing that the vast majority of those mid skilled jobs still exist, they just exist in countries whose labor costs are drastically lower. They exist in lower income countries, but the work quality is often shoddy and poor at best. The talented ones have already migrated to the West. Case in point, a factory we built for a project in the Middle East with a fully European team took j…

That's literally point two and three of the argument I made in the second half of the first paragraph as something that is incorrect to bet on continuing forever. What would your project spread have looked like 20 years ago? I am guessing quite a lot worse. What will the spread look like in 20 years? I would bet on it being closer than it is now.

Most Middle Eastern countries have made approximately zero progress on worker training and productivity in the past 20 years. Some have even gone backwards. There's no reason to expect they will do better in the next 20.

It's a sad waste of human potential due to toxic politics and unfavorable geography.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#93

I've lived in Berlin for fifteen years now. My view is very different from what this article is portraying. Germany definitely has issues. Some of them are short term issues. Some of them self inflicted. And others have been issues for a long time. But all of these are fixable. All it takes is change. Change is hard for Germans but if you look at their history, you see that that wasn't always the case. They are hard…

There's an energy crisis that was caused by the Russians

I think you misspelled "an energy crisis that was caused by short-sightedly failing to invest in and build out nuclear power."

Germany was warned for decades about the dangers of relying on Russia, and ignored the warnings.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#94
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, but you don't understand the western sanctions on Russian oil. The goal is to keep it flowing (so that the prices don't explode), but to squeeze the Russian profits. Make their (e. g. transportation) costs high and sale price low (price cap).

The sanctions worked somewhat. So did the destruction of North Stream. With it operational, Germany would have been buying Russian gas as usual. Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries will work even better. https://energyandcleanair.org/june-2023-monthly-snapshot-on-... The German auto industry should be building tanks and APCs instead of obnoxious diesel SUVs. And they should build them like a Renault, not l…

And maybe German industry should build some regular guns as well so that their army will no longer have to rely on wooden broomsticks painted black.

https://www.newsweek.com/germany-cant-explain-use-broomstick...

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disclaimer: I don't know shit, about anything. > The Anglophone strategy led to greater internal inequality but seems to be better from an aggregate standpoint. Let's see. I feel like whatever is brewing economically and socially may hurt the "service industry backed societies" harder, when the time has come. > Germany still has an enviable roster of small, agile manufacturers, and the Bundesbank and others reject th…

> I feel something is getting horribly out of balance In my country, they dropped interest rates to near 0 in the wake of 9/11 in order to prevent the economy from crashing, and held them there until the Covid pandemic. It seems like that free money was used to buy _anything_ that could be invested in, driving up prices for assets like stocks, houses, and cryptocurrencies. I remember reading articles around 2018 that…

> I looked at a dark, unremarkable 4 bedroom condominium priced at $400k, which was at least 6x my annual income.

I suspect, people, even with comparatively high income, stopped being able to buy hard securities like houses. Why save up then? So, folk had a lot more "disposable income" to consume soothing, but overall transient consumable products and services like clothing, tech gadgets, food, subscriptions... – lifestyle stuff. You know: 1000$ sneakers and a 12$/month meditation app. A bit of luxury and the illusion of wealth. This in turn enabled an industry of bullshit pushers, who started manufacturing the demand for all these consumables, trying to reap a new massive YOLO market. All, of course, paying their 20% to the 1%.

Rents and living costs kept rising, so now we got to the point where "luxury" has become cheap, cheap lookalike instead, and most everybody is hustling to keep their "standard of living". Multiple jobs and a side gig, to pay for the fix and all your subscriptions... no pension, no pause. Ever.

> "You'll own nothing and be happy"

Look at the housing crisis and get all academic about the economy... What terrifies me, is this new, omnipresent private sell-out and monetization of social interactions. Everybody always has something to sell, is self-branding. Everybody wants to get in my head constantly, stomp their shit between my dopamine receptors. Too often, I feel exhausted and physically sick from this dynamic, I feel the sick. Decency and respect had their IPO.

And I am carrying a new generalized anger with me everywhere, which I see in fellow strangers, too. People are increasingly short-fused. The pandemic accelerated this. Traffic is mad.

I fear the fabric of the collective is on sale at this moment. Maybe the mandated growth dogma has hit the capacity of healthy attention or something. This is not just an economic bubble, but the exhaustion of a part human along with it. Someone is getting high on their own supply...

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#96
post #94
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The sanctions worked somewhat. So did the destruction of North Stream. With it operational, Germany would have been buying Russian gas as usual. Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries will work even better. https://energyandcleanair.org/june-2023-monthly-snapshot-on-... The German auto industry should be building tanks and APCs instead of obnoxious diesel SUVs. And they should build them like a Renault, not l…

And maybe German industry should build some regular guns as well so that their army will no longer have to rely on wooden broomsticks painted black. https://www.newsweek.com/germany-cant-explain-use-broomstick...

This does seem like a very ineffective way to defend yourself against the other teams in the training exercise, who will presumably be firing live ammo.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#97

One of the myriad issues mentioned in that article is that Germany's workforce is not going to be able to sustain the economy after some years. What is the cause of that? There is plenty of immigration and with cost of living having been fairly low in many places in Germany for the last two decades, plus the economy booming in that time, why is there a lack of workers now (+-5-10 years)?

German workers are famously productive. Non-German substitutes are unlikely to be so industrious.

Can you substantiate this statement?

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#98

People are blaming energy prices but I don’t understand: As far as I can tell, wholesale prices for both gas and electricity are lower than before the start of the war.

The fact that prices haven't increased noticeably sure seems like a sign that sanctions against Russia were largely toothless and their oil is making its way into the global supply all the same. Russia is responsible for something like 12% of all global crude oil. If sanctions actually worked and global demand for oil went unchanged prices would have increased, likely quite a bit as the demand is very sticky and not…

> The fact that prices haven't increased noticeably sure seems like a sign that sanctions against Russia were largely toothless and their oil is making its way into the global supply all the same.

It was never the goal to keep Russia from selling its oil as it would hike up prices globally. The goal was to force them to sell it for cheap so they barely make any profit. That at least worked somewhat.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#99

Germany's strategy has been to offer higher quality products at a huge markup. Just using the auto industry as an example, in the past twenty years the difference in quality between a mass market vehicle and a luxury vehicle has compressed. Competing on quality seems to be getting harder. The Anglophone economies, whose shift to services away from manufacturing has been ballyhooed and decried in many quarters, embrac…

[dead]

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I feel something is getting horribly out of balance In my country, they dropped interest rates to near 0 in the wake of 9/11 in order to prevent the economy from crashing, and held them there until the Covid pandemic. It seems like that free money was used to buy _anything_ that could be invested in, driving up prices for assets like stocks, houses, and cryptocurrencies. I remember reading articles around 2018 that…

> I looked at a dark, unremarkable 4 bedroom condominium priced at $400k, which was at least 6x my annual income. I suspect, people, even with comparatively high income, stopped being able to buy hard securities like houses. Why save up then? So, folk had a lot more "disposable income" to consume soothing, but overall transient consumable products and services like clothing, tech gadgets, food, subscriptions... – lif…

Your poetry (we don't have a good set of concepts to make this stuff prose, yet) reminded me of this[1].

1. https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2017/08/17/the-premium-mediocre-l...

Post reply on HN