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My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

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Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#91

Post by karmakaze »

vallode wrote: post #7

I'm no AI expert, I don't have a lot of domain knowledge but what irks me about reading through this entire blog post is the idea that we are hinging on a definition of AGI that apparently accounts for 95% (!) of "economically valuable work" while basically not talking _at all_ about the trades. No mention of construction, manual labour, mechanics, welders, painters, nothing! Is the author trying to say that all that…

I thought that it was assumed the blue collar work was believed to be attainable much sooner than AGI, so then only the intellectually complex work would remain for AGI to solve.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#92

Post by ChatGTP »

spywaregorilla wrote: post #78
ChatGTP wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand , things should get cheaper and more accessible ?

Minimum wages are always going to be defined by scraping by. Definitionally that's just where they get pushed both in terms of wages and prices. But yes, removing skilled labor and replacing it with unskilled labor does mean more perks for the wealthy.

I guess this assumes "AI" is a containable entity ?

I mean, why can I not get my SuperSmart5000 robot to self improve and then use it's intelligence make my situation better?

Personally, I think this is why open source AI efforts are so important. If we're going to get wiped out by AI, I hope it's an open source AI that does it.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#93

Post by ChatGTP »

echelon wrote: post #70
ChatGTP wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What good does that do though ? It’ll wipe out entire careers so you can have what ? Cheap cartons ? Not disagreeing, just curious what makes you think this is so incredible ? Did you not have enough to watch before ?

I want to make . Due to opportunity cost, capital cost, personnel cost - I could never be in that seat. This will empower fan fiction authors, web comic authors, indie creators, et al. to all reach new heights that they couldn't before.

You won't be making, you'll be generating whatever the model allows you to generate based on copyright restrictions?

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#94

Post by ChatGTP »

PurpleRamen wrote: post #57
ChatGTP wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The belief is that once the AGI is here, the possibilities are endless for disrupting absolutely every aspect of our life and society, the end of human history is what I've hear Open AI folks say. There will be zero work, humans will be completely useless economically and we'll just have to hope that some how, all of this wealth is fairly distributed and we don't lose our minds from feeling completely useless. What y…

> There will be zero work, humans will be completely useless economically and we'll just have to hope that some how, all of this wealth is fairly distributed and we don't lose our minds from feeling completely useless. That's delusional on a disturbing level. It's as if those people have no clue about the real world, or are willingly lying. All the wealth we have now, is not fairly distributed, and just having more t…

Most of this assumes on the idea that "AI" is controllable and containable?

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#95

Post by Jensson »

idopmstuff wrote: post #77
jsharf wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we have intelligent AI that can automate programming, then making really good robots will not be a problem. While not trivial, actuators and power systems are not the reason why we don’t have robots that can do all manual labor for us. Software is the reason, and the same kind of software that’s learning to code (machine learning) can also be adapted to washing dishes, folding clothing, doing craft labor or previo…

Totally - but is the AI development of robots included in the timeline for what you're calling AGI? Can we get to AGI without having those robots, and then the AGI designs them? I think they'll ultimately go hand in hand - this is more just a question of what we're defining AGI to be and whether robotics should be mandatory as part of the stated definition around doing 95% of work.

The AGI will have to run the robots, problem solving when things go wrong is what allows humans to run large organized endeavors without getting stuck, you need AGI to do that for generalized work. Before AGI robots will only be able to handle tasks with very simple error scenarios, and will still need humans to look after them for the rare cases where things go more wrong.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#96

Post by Jensson »

laichzeit0 wrote: post #58

“Today is the worst AI will ever be.” I’m gonna steal this one. I can’t say the same about web development, for example, or the US political landscape, or climate change, or mental health, etc.

AI doesn't just make progress, during an AI winter the AI gets worse for a while. Like deep blue was the best in the world, then they scrapped that project and it took a long while until anyone made a better chess engine. The same can easily happen for LLMs etc, if it turns out they are too expensive to run without VC money we will see them quickly regress once the next winter hits.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#98

Post by ChatGTP »

joshspankit wrote: post #69
bryanlarsen wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you stuck an AGI inside a Boston Dynamics robot and trained it on a trade I suspect it could replace much of that trade. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-e1_QhJ1EhQ Not an easy problem, but the assumption is that AGI makes solving such problems tractable. Japan has been working on healthcare robots for decades. I think the key word is that the robots "could" replace 95% of economically valuable work, not that they…

Yes, but... There are unknown issues down that road. Given 1000 years AI could probably replace all work, but I think we’re all on the same page of “could AI replace 95% of work within a timespan that’s meaningful to people alive today?”, and in that term the realization of an AI-powered machine doing all manual labour (even an AGI one) still has a too many unknowns for a meaningful answer. We were “going to have fly…

It is also not necessarily what people want.

I do think social mobility from being able to work is something people want. I think AI researchers want to feel important and like they have purpose. As they start to realize that will all vanish once they invent AGI, it will be interesting to see how they proceed.

I think human augmentation is far more attractive and will be a more popular field of endevour, if we workout how to get better at it.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#99

Post by spywaregorilla »

ChatGTP wrote: post #92
spywaregorilla wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Minimum wages are always going to be defined by scraping by. Definitionally that's just where they get pushed both in terms of wages and prices. But yes, removing skilled labor and replacing it with unskilled labor does mean more perks for the wealthy.

I guess this assumes "AI" is a containable entity ? I mean, why can I not get my SuperSmart5000 robot to self improve and then use it's intelligence make my situation better? Personally, I think this is why open source AI efforts are so important. If we're going to get wiped out by AI, I hope it's an open source AI that does it.

because you have no particular resources to leverage
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