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Sam Altman's knack for dodging bullets with a little help from bigshot friends

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Re: Sam Altman's knack for dodging bullets with a little help from bigshot friends

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think you need to like the people you listed (I, for example, hate Musk). But you seem to have no curiosity around understanding the value non-technical people can bring to a project or company or innovation. You need both to do something great. And there’s thousands of Woz’s out there whose names we don’t know because they never met their Jobs.

But even all Wozzes out there who met their Jobs are still relegated to just Wozzes, all credit being vaccumed up by their respective Jobs. Not saying that their Jobs don’t deserve any the credit, i’m just pointing out the unfair pattern of how all the credit is being vaccumed up. One clearly needs the other but it doesn’t look like a two way street at all.

It's not unfair in the case of Jobs & Woz. Wozniak represented a few years of Apple's earliest history. His contribution was similar to Paul Allen's contribution to Microsoft. Extraordinarily important in the first few years, and that was the end of that. The reality is, people broadly like Woz, and particularly among the HN crowd Steve Jobs is disliked; that's the explanation, it's purely emotional; so they want to give Woz more credit than he deserves.

There's an obsession with trying to discredit people like Jobs (and their contributions), particularly among the hacker news crowd. Fundamentally it's because most hackers don't understand leadership, marketing, sales, etc.

In this thread you'll see people claim Elon Musk is non-technical. That's bordering on belligerent. A person would have to have avoided the dozens of YouTube interviews where he demonstrates his technical understanding to an elaborate degree. Musk is as technical as Bill Gates was in his post coding days at Microsoft (which spanned the bulk of his time at Microsoft) and I've never seen anyone on HN claim Gates as being non-technical. How it works is simple: I dislike this person, therefore I shall tear them down; I'm unable to be objective about the subject, so I shall be emotional and irrational instead.

Re: Sam Altman's knack for dodging bullets with a little help from bigshot friends

#92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> Being involved in a some impressive things doesn't excuse It doesn’t. It also doesn’t negate those accomplishments. The world is a better and a worse place for him. This is humanity.

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Re: Sam Altman's knack for dodging bullets with a little help from bigshot friends

#93
post #60

I've seen variants of this in finance, where the strategy is called "outrunning your mistakes." There's an art to building a rapid growth trajectory, cutting all kinds of corners to ramp up your customers/assets/users/whatever -- and then pirouetting into a bigger new role, while leaving someone else to stabilize your unstable creation. Take it up a level, and the best practitioners are also very good at blaming thei…

This is extremely common in big tech careers.

Re: Sam Altman's knack for dodging bullets with a little help from bigshot friends

#94
post #53
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're implying that you knew how to hire and identify smart architects and provided them the right vision to build a good building. There wouldn't be a counterfactual in your hypothetical scenario, but I'm confident that the difference between someone that got lucky and hired "smart" architects versus a visionary doing the same task would be drastic. Money can only get you so far.

Is there an indication that Altman has a special talent for this over others?

Yes, the accomplishments of OpenAI represent that in action. It's an exceptional outcome to say the least.

If everybody could do it, they would be doing it. Altman's abilities are every bit as rare as that of a 10x software developer. The same was true of Jobs, and the same is true of Musk (regardless of whether someone likes him or not; who cares if he's likable, it's an infantile emotional derangement to obsess so much over likability).

Re: Sam Altman's knack for dodging bullets with a little help from bigshot friends

#95
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A combination of real drive and a tremendous amount of dumb luck. Never forget the dumb luck part though. Life isn't fair, ask Trevor Moore who wrote a song about that, oh wait, you can't, life isn't fair...

If Sam continues to have "luck" it is not survivorship bias. As I said before he is at the center of the stage.

Tell me you don't understand conditional probability without telling me you don't understand conditional probability.

CEO of Reddit, how'd that go? Project Covalence, how'd that go? Andrew Yang? Our next president, right? 2018, The year Sam Altman became the governor of California, no? And of course: "I have guns, gold, potassium iodide, antibiotics, batteries, water, gas masks from the Israel Defense Forces, and a big patch of land in Big Sur I can fly to." - that aged well.

But he's now in a position where all his failures will be forgotten and his successes amplified forevermore (unless he buys a social media company, but he seems too smart for that so far). It is clear he has reached Jeff Dean levels of ridiculous hagiography though, but I guess worshipping CEOs is a step up from worshipping invisible friends or stinky geriatric ex-presidents so there's that.

Re: Sam Altman's knack for dodging bullets with a little help from bigshot friends

#96

You don't have to like Sam. But people who do big things, by definition, have to get there by pushing things along at a cadence that differs from most other people. I'm not necessarily saying it's a good thing, but I don't get why every article about Sam seems to be surprised that the guy who helped build something nobody thought was possible (AI this decade) got there by doing things in a fast, unique way. If he fol…

>If he followed the norms, he'd be a mid-level manager at FAANG company. If we followed the norms, he's be in prison. If you think fraud and self-dealing are justified if it moves a lot of value to shareholders, write to your senator. Until then the laws should be enforced against the rich as well as the poor. Of course, I can't much bring myself to care in this case, because all that's at stake is a chatbot.

What laws are you accusing him of breaking?

Re: Sam Altman's knack for dodging bullets with a little help from bigshot friends

#97
post #71

Altman is the perfect 3-letter inside man, that photo with Nadella towards the end of the article is the perfect representation of that (MS having won the race of "which IT company will the System choose to represent its tech interests?", ahead of Amazon and Alphabet).

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Re: Sam Altman's knack for dodging bullets with a little help from bigshot friends

#98

> “The senior leadership team was unanimous in asking for Sam’s return as CEO and for the board’s resignation, actions backed by an open letter signed by over 95% of our employees. The strong support from his team underscores that he is an effective CEO,” said an OpenAI spokeswoman. This is where I stopped reading. At the risk of sounding defensive of Sam Altman. If there's something so fundamentally wrong with him,…

> If there's something so fundamentally wrong with him, why does he have such broad support?

75 million people voted for Trump.

Re: Sam Altman's knack for dodging bullets with a little help from bigshot friends

#99
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there an indication that Altman has a special talent for this over others?

Yes, the accomplishments of OpenAI represent that in action. It's an exceptional outcome to say the least. If everybody could do it, they would be doing it. Altman's abilities are every bit as rare as that of a 10x software developer. The same was true of Jobs, and the same is true of Musk (regardless of whether someone likes him or not; who cares if he's likable, it's an infantile emotional derangement to obsess so…

> Yes, the accomplishments of OpenAI represent that in action. It's an exceptional outcome to say the least.

What specifically backs that up? Didn't others create the technology? Is it that hard to hire and organize when you've got a top researcher that everyone wants to work with? By many accounts, he was just using OpenAI to further other businesses and investments.

Re: Sam Altman's knack for dodging bullets with a little help from bigshot friends

#100
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are these people so sycophantic, especially to such an inexperienced person?

"“I saw in a 19-year-old Sam Altman the same thing that I see now: an intensely focused and brilliant person whom I was willing to bet big on,” said Chung, now managing general partner of Xfund, a venture-capital firm." They believe in his focus to get things done, not in his ethics. And with ChatGPT, he got things done. Which means, he connected the right people and raised money so they can work on the important thi…

> said Chung, now managing general partner of Xfund, a venture-capital firm.

Emphasis mine. I mean, that's just backs up my original question. These people will say anything to garner favor, perceived or otherwise. I've seen Altman speak. At what point should I expect to see a representative example of this focus and insight?

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