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SpaceX Loses Starship Spaceraft During Test Flight

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Re: SpaceX Loses Starship Spaceraft During Test Flight

#91

"Loses" is kind of an incorrect way to talk about the launch. The flight made great progress and was just shy of orbital velocity (it was over 24,000 km/hr and orbital velocity is around 24,500 km/hr for a low orbit). Keep in mind that the goal of this launch wasn't to carry any payload. It was to get data and further iterative development. People here, especially, should understand how iterative development works.

Fair point - they didn't even plan a landing for the Spaceship, just a splashdown in the Pacific, so the plan was always to "lose" it. And it was well on track for that, it reached target height and already fired about 90% of its fuel. The only thing it didn't get to test was the heat shield, but there'll be plenty of other chances. I'm sorry about the booster tho. But overall it's hard to consider this anything othe…

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/7LYw6gU65ac

Scott Manley has a good short up on the booster at hot staging.

Re: SpaceX Loses Starship Spaceraft During Test Flight

#93
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was very shocking to see that they didn't have one. It's not like this was one of those secret things that NASA has done that prevents others from having success. As recently as during SLS ramp up, I remember articles covering the testing of the deluge system for SLS. They talked about how many gallons per second, and the total amount of water necessary, and all of the other blah blah blah details that a non-rocke…

If I recall, they really hoped it would work without it because the idea is to launch off the surface of other planets that won't have a deluge system. Not sure if that additional context makes it seem any less crazy to think it isn't needed though.

That huge first stage isn't making it to other planets, and we're not building one on another planet anytime soon.

Re: SpaceX Loses Starship Spaceraft During Test Flight

#94
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The largest rocket ever built just got to space for the first time. Even without re-entry this is a milestone. They have a production line to build these things. They’ll roll out the next one and try again. It’s not like SLS where everything is expected to work perfectly.

>They have a production line to build these things. They’ll roll out the next one and try again. Yep. to be more specific, they have 6 more ships built and 5 under construction. Engines are being produced one per day. The scale of manufacturing is stupefying.

One. Per. Day?? That’s pretty wild.

Re: SpaceX Loses Starship Spaceraft During Test Flight

#95
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You make it sound like you'd be disappointed to compete in the Olympics and not get a medal, rather than being immensely proud of your achievement at being in the ~top 10 in the entire world!

quite the opposite. i'm tired of the concept "there are no losers" and everyone deserves a reward. life is harsh, and teaching that at younger ages is better than soft selling the concept of losing so that it's a harsh slap in the face later in life.

Right but the comment you replied to is just pointing out that there can be multiple winners.

Coke and Pepsi both are winning, though your comments sound like you think one is a loser for not being top sales in beverage.

Re: SpaceX Loses Starship Spaceraft During Test Flight

#96
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The second big success was all 33 engines working reliably all the way up! There were so many nay-sayers saying if the soviets could build those amazing engines but couldn't solve their flameout problem on their N-1 rocket that Superheavy was never going to work

> There were so many nay-sayers saying if the soviet Who are you talking to where many people are saying that? I work in the space industry and no one I've ever spoken to says that.

Elon Musk has plenty of people who hate everything he and his companies do, and they are very vocal about doom on everything. Working in the actual space industry, you're exposed to people who are evaluating things based on professional knowledge and experience rather than a social media bubble.

Re: SpaceX Loses Starship Spaceraft During Test Flight

#98
post #52
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The largest rocket ever built just got to space for the first time. Even without re-entry this is a milestone. They have a production line to build these things. They’ll roll out the next one and try again. It’s not like SLS where everything is expected to work perfectly.

I guess that’s one way to define success or a milestone. The Saturn V used for the Apollo program had different criteria, like not blowing up and having all engines ignite. Now that we have the person who knows more about manufacturing than anyone else alive in charge I’m sure these glitches will get sorted out.

Ah yes, because the Apollo program is famous for never having any problems with unscheduled fires or explosions. Completely safe, it was.

Sarcasm aside, NASA has blown up plenty of rockets. It's not a problem to blow up a rocket if it doesn't pose any substantial risk. NASA doesn't much like to blow up rockets anymore because it's contrary to how their operational model works: Congress gives NASA a task, a deadline, and a budget, and NASA is expected to deliver on the task, and can ask for more time or money down the road. Any kind of high-profile public failure is risky to NASA because it looks bad to Congress, who might cancel the project. Asking Congress for more time or money is normal, so the safe strategy with NASA's undertakings (especially high-profile ones like the James Webb Space Telescope and the Space Launch System) is to deliver flawless performance, usually late and over-budget. Congress doesn't need to be paid back, and history mostly remembers program success rather than schedule and budget overruns.

Of SpaceX's current programs, Falcon 9 is operated most similarly to NASA. It's expected to be mature and reliable; it is trusted to fly billion-dollar spy satellites and human crew. Any kind of failure will be heavily scrutinized, so SpaceX is only pushing the envelope of reuse and flight performance with their in-house payload program, Starlink. All of their customer flights get to operate well within the established safe performance envelope of the rocket. With over 200 successful consecutive flights now, SpaceX's Falcon 9 obviously can be depended on.

Starship, on the other hand, is not being depended on by anybody at the moment. No project gets delayed or cancelled when it explodes; no missile complex goes unwatched, no humans get stranded in space, smacked into the ocean, or burned alive. Nobody, least of all SpaceX, needs it to be perfect now. What they need is for it to become good enough to sell, to sell lots once they're selling it, and to not cost too much once they're selling it, all of this ideally sooner rather than later. They have access to lots of money now to make this happen, but investors' money has to be paid back someday.

So the bar for Starship isn't set at "succeed". It's set at "maximize future return on investment".

SpaceX is counting on present failures to save them money in the future by proving exactly what is necessary to succeed, at a time when failure is relatively cheap for them. They've clearly improved from the previous launch. Key milestones were passed. Telemetry was collected, and the flight safety systems executed an authoritative conclusion to the flight. With the investment of only 212 days of time and money since their previous high-profile Starship explosion, SpaceX has gotten demonstrable progress towards future flight success.

Re: SpaceX Loses Starship Spaceraft During Test Flight

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looking at that full set of 33 engines burning almost brought a tear to my eye (and the controlled cutoff). That more than anything else tells me they've made it.

I don't understand what makes the functioning of all the engines so difficult (I know nothing about rockets). How is it that you build something so expensive with so many development resources and expect parts to fail?

Lots of vibration and heat on what is effectively a massive bomb. And more engines means more parts that can potentially break.
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