If this isn't just luck, and it's based public and obvious information, why wouldn't the effect already be priced in by large firms trading on it?
Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
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Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#92Did something similar for Malaysian stock market (bursa) and got ~26% since August. I think this is probably much more effective in corrupt countries.
(Our politicians and inside traders don’t disclose stuff obviously but there are signals that indicate an inside trade based on warrant stocks)
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#93Just over a year is not very long to draw conclusions
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#94Earlier quoted context omitted.
If the 'other investing approach' is a broad market index like the S&P 500, where is the 'appearance if insider trading'? GP's point is that they could be almost entirely in the S&P500, with some minor innocuous deviation (tracking error, frankly!) and it would look the same. So this isn't really suspicious at all. Sure it's a US-focussed index, but isn't that you want from your politicians? (Outsider perspective her…
Anecdata to follow. Does this not look suspicious? https://www.threads.net/@quiverquantitative/post/CzcB_jyA_pD The politician in question is a 69 year old former football coach who bought stock in a cloud-based e-commerce software vendor before the company was acquired, then when the stock spiked 50%, he sold it right away.
Well, if you factor in that he bought his position of > $600K US in multiple buys less than a month before the spike then yes, you might say it was a little suspicious.
What a lucky man.
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#95Earlier quoted context omitted.
If the 'other investing approach' is a broad market index like the S&P 500, where is the 'appearance if insider trading'? GP's point is that they could be almost entirely in the S&P500, with some minor innocuous deviation (tracking error, frankly!) and it would look the same. So this isn't really suspicious at all. Sure it's a US-focussed index, but isn't that you want from your politicians? (Outsider perspective her…
Anecdata to follow. Does this not look suspicious? https://www.threads.net/@quiverquantitative/post/CzcB_jyA_pD The politician in question is a 69 year old former football coach who bought stock in a cloud-based e-commerce software vendor before the company was acquired, then when the stock spiked 50%, he sold it right away.
Yes, it is likely individual politicians are making insider trades.
It is also likely that some of those politicians are making bad trades based on overvalued or misvalued insider information. I have personally seen this in other contexts where people know something presumed private about a company, assume it’s a bigger deal than it is, and trade on that information.
It’s also likely that there are a lot of politicians who are generally just as bad as the average person at stockpicking.
All this combined, and it’s reasonable that the overall trend will be mostly in-line with the market, but likely overperforming sonewhat in the long run based on the volume and quality of insider trades. One year and change isn’t the long run.
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#96Markets up 16% over same time range.
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#97Is there a legitimate argument for keeping this legal and not pursuing an expansion of existing insider trading laws? The incentives here are horrifically backwards.
I've yet to see any good evidence that Congress is outperforming the market due to insider trading. Even if they were, I don't think that the net loss of a few million dollars in market efficiency is such a terrible sin, especially when you consider how terrible they are at their jobs. I find it much more concerning that they're spending half their time fundraising rather than actually doing their jobs.
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#98I still don’t understand why elected officials trading on non public information can’t be considered a intelligence breach
My unpopular opinion is that I think politicians trade on non-public info much less often the the average netizen thinks. There are high profile or notable cases, yes. But I'm talking in general. Pelosi for instance recently traded Roblox in size. What kind of info could she possibly have about that. But Twitter was up in arms about it.
The obvious thing to do from a policy perspective is simply require investing in index funds with sales scheduled well in advance. C-suites and bankers have to do it, why let politicians even give the appearance of corruption.
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#99Radical proposal: Rather than trying to police leakage of insider information, level the playing field for both politicians and fed employees by creating a dozen or so national mutual funds of at least 1,000 equity positions each that intend to model the US economy as a whole. Anyone can invest in them, but all US Federal employees and immediate family members are required to liquidate all other positions and hold on…
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Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#100This is my tweet, thanks for sharing! If anyone is interested, I built a dashboard that tracks the performance of individual congressional stock trades here: https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/ It also allows you to search for trades by stock, instead of needing to parse through thousands of disclosure forms. I do want to mention one weakness of my data, which is that I don't currently parse hand-filed discl…
You should track how their returns compare to indexes