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Antarctic sea-ice at 'mind-blowing' low alarms experts

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Antarctic sea-ice at 'mind-blowing' low alarms experts

#91

Post by throw_pm23 »

myshpa wrote: post #18
throw_pm23 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a slight danger though. Suppose there is a baseline climate change, Earth is getting gradually warmer on average. Then there is some yearly variation, say, this year above average by 3 degrees, 5 years later below average by 3 degrees. If you call the yearly variation climate change, then five years later your opponents will say "you see, it was a hoax". It is a bit like presidents taking credit for the stoc…

https://skepticalscience.com/global-warming-natural-cycle.ht... https://skepticalscience.com/internal-variability.htm

It's hard to argue with someone who responds with links, but none of the content behind those links contradicts what I said.

There can be a day-to-day variation of 10+ degrees. If Monday is cold and Tuesday is warm, and I say "this is because of global warming", then if Wednesday is lukewarm then I discredited myself.

Re: Antarctic sea-ice at 'mind-blowing' low alarms experts

#93

Post by myshpa »

fsloth wrote: post #30
myshpa wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We increased crop yields multifold already With catastrophic effects. https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/research-news/2... All planetary boundaries mapped out for the first time, six of nine crossed https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320356605_Agricultu... Agriculture production as a major driver of the Earth system exceeding planetary boundaries Most of it is because of animal agriculture - it use…

I agree with most of what you wrote above. The ludicrous amount of resources used for growing animals for food is totally non-value adding and harmful to the environment as a whole. That said I'm not a vegetarian - my diet is based on industrila logistics - I eat the protein that the supermarket logistics chain provide to our neighbourhood. "The only realistic way out of it is immediate phase-out of fossil fuels and…

> Only thing you need is to convince the elites to change to vegetarianism

I think that abolisment of subsidies to most destructive and polluting sectors (fossil fuels, animal agriculture, fishing, ...) would get us a long way.

> They are foundational to the whole global industry including agriculture

Agree.

So we use what we have to expedite the switch to renewables and reform agriculture for sustainable production less dependent on chemicals and poisons.

The peak oil is not that far away.

Re: Antarctic sea-ice at 'mind-blowing' low alarms experts

#94

Post by sunflowerfly »

wallhack wrote: post #33

Vote out any policy maker who impedes the response to climate change. This is not something we fix as individuals, with feel-good home solutions, recycling, or planting trees. Large industry is destroying our world, on purpose, because of greed. This only gets fixed through policy and regulation. Vote.

A big problem is young people do not vote. About half the voters are 50 and over.

Re: Antarctic sea-ice at 'mind-blowing' low alarms experts

#95

Post by myshpa »

throw_pm23 wrote: post #91
myshpa wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://skepticalscience.com/global-warming-natural-cycle.ht... https://skepticalscience.com/internal-variability.htm

It's hard to argue with someone who responds with links, but none of the content behind those links contradicts what I said. There can be a day-to-day variation of 10+ degrees. If Monday is cold and Tuesday is warm, and I say "this is because of global warming", then if Wednesday is lukewarm then I discredited myself.

> this year above average by 3 degrees, 5 years later below average by 3 degrees

> There can be a day-to-day variation of 10+ degrees

You seem to be confusing weather with climate change.

Weather refers to short-term atmospheric conditions, such as daily temperature and precipitation variations, while climate change represents long-term shifts in average temperature, precipitation patterns, and other climatic factors over extended periods, often spanning decades (3+) to centuries.

Re: Antarctic sea-ice at 'mind-blowing' low alarms experts

#96

Post by jaybrendansmith »

unpopular42 wrote: post #84
thulle wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we could soon make the climate do what we want Can you expand on this? If it's geoengineering you're talking about we don't really need all the energy for it.

Imagine regulatory asphyxiation disappears. Imagine energy tech gets its own Moore's law. Imagine cheap abundant energy, say 10 orders of magnitude from now in a few decades. Heating up or cooling down the planet at will doesn't sound impossible then.

So we should just hope this all away? That's a deeply childish viewpoint, and hoping is not a reliable plan. It will require many things: Carbon regulation plus geo-engineering plus improved power systems plus personal sacrifice. But where that starts is legislation. This is how we solved acid raid, the ozone layer, lead-based fuels and paints, and oh so many other environmental externalities. Individuals cannot solve this problem themselves. I could convert my house to solar and buy electric cars tomorrow and the problem is not solved, because I account personally (through my own choices) of only 20% of the issue. https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emis...

Re: Antarctic sea-ice at 'mind-blowing' low alarms experts

#97

Post by throw_pm23 »

myshpa wrote: post #95
throw_pm23 wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's hard to argue with someone who responds with links, but none of the content behind those links contradicts what I said. There can be a day-to-day variation of 10+ degrees. If Monday is cold and Tuesday is warm, and I say "this is because of global warming", then if Wednesday is lukewarm then I discredited myself.

> this year above average by 3 degrees, 5 years later below average by 3 degrees > There can be a day-to-day variation of 10+ degrees You seem to be confusing weather with climate change. Weather refers to short-term atmospheric conditions, such as daily temperature and precipitation variations, while climate change represents long-term shifts in average temperature, precipitation patterns, and other climatic factors…

No, my point is that many articles on climate change confuse weather with climate change. (The crime that you accuse me of committing.)

If someone says "this year is unusually warm with unusually low ice cover", that is not about climatic factors spanning decades to centuries.

If someone says "the average ice cover between 2000-2020 is lower than the average cover between 1980-2000" that is about climate.

Re: Antarctic sea-ice at 'mind-blowing' low alarms experts

#98

Post by myshpa »

Turing_Machine wrote: post #90
myshpa wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We increased crop yields multifold already With catastrophic effects. https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/research-news/2... All planetary boundaries mapped out for the first time, six of nine crossed https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320356605_Agricultu... Agriculture production as a major driver of the Earth system exceeding planetary boundaries Most of it is because of animal agriculture - it use…

> The overshoot threatens our civilization with crop failures. The only realistic way out of it is immediate phase-out of fossil fuels An "immediate phase-out of fossil fuels" would kill a billion people or more right off the bat. Do you not understand that, or do you simply not care? https://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/timeless/images/US... See how corn yield has increased from around 20 bushels/acre to nearly…

> immediate phase-out of fossil fuels

I meant it not as right now, but as soon as possible.

> See how corn yield has increased from around 20 bushels/acre to nearly 180?

> The same is true of other crops such as wheat

Just 7-10% of that corn is for human consumption, the rest is animal feed and biofuls.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/06/corn-industries-susta...

Corn based ethanol is worse for the climate than gasoline.

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/us-corn-based-e...

Most of the world’s grain is not eaten by humans - nearly half of all grain is either burned as fuel or eaten by animals

https://web.archive.org/web/20230204130304/https://www.econo...

> It happened with tractors, combine harvesters, and petrochemical-derived fertilizers.

Yes, that's the destructive part.

We should instead switch to local methods of regenerative farming, like syntropic/natural/permaculture farming, which might be more labour and knowledge intensive, but when done right have similar yields, while repairing soils and working with biodiversity, not against it.

Re: Antarctic sea-ice at 'mind-blowing' low alarms experts

#99

Post by myshpa »

throw_pm23 wrote: post #97
myshpa wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> this year above average by 3 degrees, 5 years later below average by 3 degrees > There can be a day-to-day variation of 10+ degrees You seem to be confusing weather with climate change. Weather refers to short-term atmospheric conditions, such as daily temperature and precipitation variations, while climate change represents long-term shifts in average temperature, precipitation patterns, and other climatic factors…

No, my point is that many articles on climate change confuse weather with climate change. (The crime that you accuse me of committing.) If someone says "this year is unusually warm with unusually low ice cover", that is not about climatic factors spanning decades to centuries. If someone says "the average ice cover between 2000-2020 is lower than the average cover between 1980-2000" that is about climate.

If I am misunderstanding your original comment then I'm sorry.

Re: Antarctic sea-ice at 'mind-blowing' low alarms experts

#100

Post by survirtual »

wallhack wrote: post #33

Vote out any policy maker who impedes the response to climate change. This is not something we fix as individuals, with feel-good home solutions, recycling, or planting trees. Large industry is destroying our world, on purpose, because of greed. This only gets fixed through policy and regulation. Vote.

Voting will do nothing. Even if you could audit the voting system and prove it wasn't fraudulent, have you met any of your fellow humans on planet Earth? You are a teeny, tiny minority. They will continue to vote to destroy this planet.

You'll have to be more clever on solving this problem. I would suggest against parroting false feel good phrases that will result in absolutely nothing changing, and start thinking outside the box you and many others seem to have found themselves in, if you actually want to see our planet survive.

We are talking about the death of this entire planet being perpetrated by a specific group of people. What sort of solutions did our ancestors come up with for significantly smaller stakes, to simply safeguard things like freedom? When speaking of saving an entire world with the potential to spread life throughout a galaxy, there are few conceivable solutions which cannot be easily morally justified if they result in safeguarding that future.

We are a species with an infinite cosmic destiny. I might suggest we all start acting like it.

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