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The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

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Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#91

Post by dghughes »

dividedbyzero wrote: post #24
Turskarama wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The big risk is a bunch of transformers blow up, essentially taking the grid down. Since we would have to bootstrap the grid again without the advantage of the grid... this would likely set civilization back pretty far, a new dark age is far from impossible.

Aren't transformers protected from this sort of thing nowadays?

I'm not sure if you can. Transformers are basically two differing loops of wire separated by a space. It relies on the EMF of each loop to transfer energy from one loop to the other. If a strong enough pulse comes along it may be too powerful to block. Like trying to stop lightning with a $100 UPS or any UPS to stop a millions of volts and tens of thousands of amps.

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#92

Post by dwaltrip »

delfinom wrote: post #86
bigyax wrote: post #43

A 1 percent chance of happening in the next decade. It's the inevitability of it that's most terrifying, society will fundamentally collapse, there's no way we could prepare for how rapidly our lives would be changed, and absolutely nothing we can do to to stop it. Only hope is that for when it happens it's far enough down the road for technology to have adapted to bring enough resiliency and/or redundancy into the g…

As long as it kills cryptocurrencies, I'm more than happy to live without electricity.

Are you willing to living without food?

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#93

Post by GolfPopper »

lxgr wrote: post #47
arrowsmith wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't modern passenger jets have some kind of failsafe way they could still be controlled and landed safely if the electronics fail? I would assume they do. But then I know nothing whatsoever about aircraft safety and am only speculating.

Modern fly-by-wire systems often don’t have a mechanic backup, and even for mechanically controlled ones (like the B737) I wouldn’t be too sure if they’d fare that well without any electronic controls. But it’s not a given that an event of this type would even disrupt electronics not connected to the power grid. Even the longest possible line in an airplane is only on the order of a couple of meters, compared to thou…

How much radiation would the passengers be getting during a Miyake Event? Air travel normally exposes travelers to a tiny percentage of a mSv. A "normal" solar flare can push that up to 200 mSv. 2000 mSv in a short time will make you sick and boost your chances of cancer. 20000 mSv puts you in company with Louis Slotin.

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#94

Post by Qem »

dskrepps wrote: post #9

I've wondered for a while. Lots of people seem to think a Carrington Event will simply fry all small electronics and make everything stop working, but from my understanding all it'll actually do is cause power surges in long transmission lines and disrupt wireless signals. Apparently telegraph lines sparked and shocked people. So what effect will that actually have now? Will a massive power surge go through my house…

The weak link in our electric grid are power transformers, because these are large, essential, long operational life equipment, whose inventory grew slowly over a century of electrification efforts. So if a large number of them blows at the same time, it takes the grid down and we don't have enough spares or production capacity to replace them timely.

Amapa state in Brazil got a taste of such disaster scenario, when the local electricity company was privatizated and management decided to eliminate redundancy and cut costs on maintenance to increase profit margins. The main transformer catched fire and no replacement or backup were available and the region endured weeks without power. See https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2020/12/18/the-crisis-in-...

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#95

Post by housebear »

Check out A Canticle for Leibowitz for an entertaining (and often depressing) read on life restarting after an extinction event. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Canticle_for_Leibowitz

"Set in a Catholic monastery in the desert of the southwestern United States after a devastating nuclear war, the book spans thousands of years as civilization rebuilds itself. The monks of the Albertian Order of Leibowitz preserve the surviving remnants of man's scientific knowledge until the world is again ready for it."

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#96

Post by cjohnson318 »

Qem wrote: post #94
dskrepps wrote: post #9

I've wondered for a while. Lots of people seem to think a Carrington Event will simply fry all small electronics and make everything stop working, but from my understanding all it'll actually do is cause power surges in long transmission lines and disrupt wireless signals. Apparently telegraph lines sparked and shocked people. So what effect will that actually have now? Will a massive power surge go through my house…

The weak link in our electric grid are power transformers, because these are large, essential, long operational life equipment, whose inventory grew slowly over a century of electrification efforts. So if a large number of them blows at the same time, it takes the grid down and we don't have enough spares or production capacity to replace them timely. Amapa state in Brazil got a taste of such disaster scenario, when…

Wow. That's exactly the sort of busted-bottleneck situation I was worried about during Covid. I'm used to hurricanes knocking out water and/or power for a few days, but a month is insane. There's no way a normal person with a normal amount of money and space can "prep" to live off-grid for a month. Part of the social contract is that you trade taxes in return for not having to worry about this kind of shit.

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#97

Post by ianburrell »

lxgr wrote: post #46
AtlasBarfed wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sooo.... widespread rooftop solar would probably help the resilience of at least domestic power?

Can common rooftop solar setups actually deliver power locally with the grid being down? I would imagine them taking at least frequency synchronization from the grid, and probably also not faring too well without the grid to compensate for variable output when a cloud passes over them etc.

Most rooftop solar can't produce power without the grid. They use cheap inverters that synchronize frequency from the grid. They also don't produce enough current to handle the peak loads from large appliances starting. The battery provides the current peaks. It is possible to buy more expensive off-grid inverters.

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#98

Post by JoeAltmaier »

ianburrell wrote: post #97
lxgr wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can common rooftop solar setups actually deliver power locally with the grid being down? I would imagine them taking at least frequency synchronization from the grid, and probably also not faring too well without the grid to compensate for variable output when a cloud passes over them etc.

Most rooftop solar can't produce power without the grid. They use cheap inverters that synchronize frequency from the grid. They also don't produce enough current to handle the peak loads from large appliances starting. The battery provides the current peaks. It is possible to buy more expensive off-grid inverters.

Yup. Stanford University discovered this to their dismay. Power grid went out, even with a field full of solar panels they had no electricity until the grid came back.

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#99

Post by ianburrell »

Turskarama wrote: post #13
dskrepps wrote: post #9

I've wondered for a while. Lots of people seem to think a Carrington Event will simply fry all small electronics and make everything stop working, but from my understanding all it'll actually do is cause power surges in long transmission lines and disrupt wireless signals. Apparently telegraph lines sparked and shocked people. So what effect will that actually have now? Will a massive power surge go through my house…

The big risk is a bunch of transformers blow up, essentially taking the grid down. Since we would have to bootstrap the grid again without the advantage of the grid... this would likely set civilization back pretty far, a new dark age is far from impossible.

I read that it is fairly easy to protect equipment by grounding it. But that requires properly grounding lots of gear, and the power companies aren't willing to spend the money.

Also, the Carrington event has plenty of notice before arrives at Earth. It would be possible to shut down the grid, and maybe disconnect all the transformers. It would require a cold start, but better to shutdown for a day than forever. The problem is that this requires the power companies to practice for a shutdown and cold start.

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#100

Post by bequanna »

Apocryphon wrote: post #75
Turskarama wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Half the world is still very different to one country. In fact, if the "once country" was _China_ (or Taiwan) it could be a civilisation ending event. We've built a house of cards, and while it does have some redundancy it's not all that resilient. Keep in mind the modern world as it is now hasn't even existed 50 years, it has never really been tested with a truly international disaster.

We’re just coming out of an international disaster.

The “international disaster” was voluntarily shutting down production for a relatively short period.

Let’s see how we handle something real like another world war or global natural disaster.

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