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Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin

cnn.com

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Re: Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin

#91

Post by myshpa »

tejohnso wrote: post #70
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we stop burning oil now it will get worse for a while, and then it will get better again. It also gives us the option to work on carbon capture and mitigation technologies. If we just carry on it's guaranteed to keep getting worse and worse until it doesn't matter any more. The first is the rational choice, especially when the momentum in the models already accounts for likely future changes.

> If we stop burning oil now it will get worse for a while, and then it will get better again. It's not a given that it will get better again. Not on timescales that matter to our species anyway. >It also gives us the option to work on carbon capture and mitigation technologies. Couldn't we do that while still burning fossil fuels? Not sure why we'd have to stop burning in order to have the option to work on capture…

> It's not a given that it will get better again. Not on timescales that matter to our species anyway.

But it could.

https://getpocket.com/explore/item/massive-forest-restoratio...

The right trees, planted in the right locations (0.9 billion hectares), could store 205 gigatons of carbon dioxide. ... That's two thirds of all the CO2 humans have generated since the industrial revolution.

https://ourworldindata.org/land-use-diets

If the world adopted a plant-based diet we would reduce global agricultural land use from 4 to 1 billion hectares

So we could plant not just 0.9 billion hectares but 3 billion.

Twice as much CO2 as we have generated since the industrial revolution.

> Couldn't we do that while still burning fossil fuels? Not sure why we'd have to stop burning in order to have the option to work on capture and mitigation.

Because those technologies don't work at the scale needed. Check how much we're producing and how much carbon those factories are able to store. We'd need tens of thousands of them.

Re: Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin

#92

Post by abenga »

phkahler wrote: post #45

No doubt the big Canadian Barbecue had a significant effect. Not to say there is no trend, just that this particular year is exceptional for at least on reason.

It does seem like every subsequent year is exceptional though. This is the Simpsons' "the hottest year of your life so far" meme personified.

Re: Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin

#95

Post by conception »

zacharytelschow wrote: post #56
SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/27/world/july-hottest-month-reco... There is a decent amount of confidence that it's an outlier in the last 120,000 years, but you're right, there are no written records that far back. Regardless, do you find it reassuring to know that the world is rapidly changing in a way that's proving to be predictable? We can easily look at that chart and guess what it's going to look like over the ne…

> We can easily look at that chart and guess what it's going to look like over the next 10 years. That's why all the past predictions have been so accurate, right? "But we know more now." We do not. Some intellectual humility by those wanting tyranical control over our lives would be fantastic.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-m...

Past predictions generally have been under estimating what’s actually happening.

Re: Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin

#96

Post by neerd »

bgirard wrote: post #90
SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The argument to immediately stop burning fossil fuels is a radical position which few take seriously. But you seem to be arguing that it'd be pointless in the same way that pressing the break in the immediate moment before a car accident is futile. Sure it might not help a lot, but I'd argue it's still the right call and will rarely make the situation worse.

It's not a great analogy. The possible downsides to breaking before a car are slim. The downside to immediately stopping burning fossil fuels are huge including disrupting the global economy, life critical heating/cooling in cold/warm climates and basically modern life globally. We could barely lock down for a pandemic. Imagine telling someone (or entire winter cities) they will likely freeze to death today to reduce…

The downsides of not doing anything are far, far larger. We risk the total collapse of our biosphere if we don’t stop.

Re: Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin

#97

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

bgirard wrote: post #90
SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The argument to immediately stop burning fossil fuels is a radical position which few take seriously. But you seem to be arguing that it'd be pointless in the same way that pressing the break in the immediate moment before a car accident is futile. Sure it might not help a lot, but I'd argue it's still the right call and will rarely make the situation worse.

It's not a great analogy. The possible downsides to breaking before a car are slim. The downside to immediately stopping burning fossil fuels are huge including disrupting the global economy, life critical heating/cooling in cold/warm climates and basically modern life globally. We could barely lock down for a pandemic. Imagine telling someone (or entire winter cities) they will likely freeze to death today to reduce…

> The downside to immediately stopping burning fossil fuels are huge including disrupting the global economy, life critical heating/cooling in cold/warm climates and basically modern life globally.

That's why I said that's not an option. Stopping fossil fuels would be the same as stopping the car instantaneously - it would be a brand new car crash.

Re: Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin

#98

Post by gmuslera »

amanaplanacanal wrote: post #79
Roark66 wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>no point of return Considering we're talking about an event that happens every ~140k years by definition there will be "a return". Just like there will be future ice ages.

More accurately no return in our lifetimes.

That can be read in two ways. Too long or no survivors of the process.

Re: Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin

#99

Post by flagged24 »

flagged24 wrote: post #58
1-6 wrote: post #16

Perhaps we're also measuring temps more than ever with greater data collection.

If we have more data points in cities, this could skew the results. I live in a forested area and going into the city can easily add 3 or 4 degrees Celsius.

I did some reading and this is actually happening. [0]

Sensors are increasingly being surrounded by urbanization and this influences readings by the heat island effect.

[0] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/262564641_Modelling...

Re: Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin

#100

Post by phkahler »

Macha wrote: post #53
phkahler wrote: post #45

No doubt the big Canadian Barbecue had a significant effect. Not to say there is no trend, just that this particular year is exceptional for at least on reason.

I also wonder if the war in Ukraine had an effect too. To my understanding in a lot of the initial stage, Russia was extracting as much natural gas as stopping the extraction process would render it hard to restart, but with much reduced opportunities to sell it, they were just flaring the excess gas. Of course, the traditional customers of that gas were burning gas too, sourced from elsewhere via LNG, or in some cas…

The war has also affected air travel, which puts a lot of water vapor in the sky and seeds cloud formation in some conditions.
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