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Why Britain doesn’t build

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Re: Why Britain doesn’t build

#91
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We need to build houses at least as fast as the population grows. Because this has not happened for decades. Over those decades UK population growth [1] is lower than the new house building rate [see chart in article]. [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/pop...

The graph shows building rate as a proportion of the size of existing stock. But the existing stock is grossly insufficient to our needs. We've been building around 200k houses a year for decades, much less than that during most years of Conservative rule: https://www.statista.com/statistics/746101/completion-of-new... This is around 0.3% of the population. The population increase year on year is consistently larger…

Couple of things to this:

You're right it's growing faster than that. E.g. Mid 2018 to mid 2019, it rose by 361k people. But the UK average household size is 2.4, so 200k new houses should in theory accommodate a population growth of 866k.

If those were the only numbers that mattered, it wouldn't be a problem. We'd catch up fast.

But all houses are not the same. A large part of the problem is people following jobs, and so a significantly higher rate of construction may be needed because people move, and needed types of properties change. Unless you can make the places people are moving away from to be more attractive, e.g. by infrastructure improvement to tie areas together in ways that make them attractive regions for businesses.

The bigger issues, however, I think are two structural problems:

1. As long as house prices go up at a sufficient rate, the soundest strategy for a developer may be to raise capital to buy land and then sit on it until house prices go up. Your cost of capital to finance it will be financing costs for the cost of the land for however many years you sit on it, and the financing costs for the construction itself only from you start construction until sold. Doubly so because if you're a large developer, holding a large parcel of land while you're, say, developing something else nearby, and releasing only limited numbers of properties onto the market contributes to keeping the prices up. Near me, one of the best properties in the area, a huge tract right next to one of the best connected train stations in the UK (East Croydon) remained undeveloped for over a decade because developers had no urgency to do anything. It's now slowly being developed, but they're taking their good time about it, because why wouldn't they?

You could address that by progressively harsher taxes by duration of under-utilisation, or strengthen ability for local government to take over land, to make it necessary for developers to either move at speed or unload the land on others, but if you fix the house price increases by other means, this problem will also go away by itself.

2. There is no political will to cause house prices to drop, because that would mean a lot of people who have seen this as a pension investment, and plan to downsize, will vote against you.

To fix this you probably need a combination of starting slow - reforms that gradually cause the market to stagnate so people stop seeing it as surefire way to make money - coupled perhaps with tax and pension adjustment structured to make it feel like your reforms are relatively neutral. E.g "package" it with substantial state pension increases, or allow for some degree of writeoffs for paper losses on declining property prices, perhaps limited to pensioners only, etc. Some of it you could sunset, and some might well end up being very unfair and effectively bribing people who shouldn't have gambled on their home as their main investment asset, but if that's what it takes to get support for crashing house prices, it'd be worth it.

Re: Why Britain doesn’t build

#92
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can build toilets just like you can homes. Toilets are standard in all homes and office buildings. You still can't build a doctor or a dentist. That takes a lot of hard work from someone who isn't you.

As disgusting as the toilets in the shops may be, they dont clean themselves. That takes a lot of hard work from someone who isn't you.

Agreed.

Re: Why Britain doesn’t build

#93
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We need to build houses at least as fast as the population grows. Because this has not happened for decades. Over those decades UK population growth [1] is lower than the new house building rate [see chart in article]. [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/pop...

The graph shows building rate as a proportion of the size of existing stock. But the existing stock is grossly insufficient to our needs. We've been building around 200k houses a year for decades, much less than that during most years of Conservative rule: https://www.statista.com/statistics/746101/completion-of-new... This is around 0.3% of the population. The population increase year on year is consistently larger…

> The current population of U.K. in 2023 is 67,736,802, a 0.34% increase from 2022. > The population of U.K. in 2022 was 67,508,936, a 0.34% increase from 2021. > The population of U.K. in 2021 was 67,281,039, a 0.33% increase from 2020. > The population of U.K. in 2020 was 67,059,474, a 0.42% increase from 2019.

1 year old babies dont 4 bedroom houses of their own.

Re: Why Britain doesn’t build

#94
post #26

This is an interesting political trap for the ruling Conservatives that they have made for themselves. The traditional Conservative voter is a home-owner. So you might be a rabid socialist in your youth, but once you get a job, save up for a deposit, and buy your own home, you eventually transition to become yet another middle-aged Tory voter. That pipeline is now broken - young people are unable to save up for their…

> current home owners - their ageing voting base - are NIMBYs who don't want the wrong sort of people living near them and any reduction in demand that would reduce their value of their homes New housing is directly against the interests of existing homeowners. Any plan that relies on people seriously disadvantaging themselves in order to benefit other people they don’t know is doomed to failure.

Only if those people who are going to be disadvantaged have political power. If the majority stand to gain by new housing, and they can elect a majority of MPs under the UK system, then the NIMBY voice is moot (although there will be no doubt resistance at local level where much of the planning will take place).

Re: Why Britain doesn’t build

#95
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doctor only 30 miles away? Luxury! It’s unrealistic for me to get treatment from a GP in my area so I simply travel thousands of miles away to another country once a year for treatment. Thousands more homes being built as well, so this isn’t changing any time soon.

Travelling to another country for treatment sounds like the luxury to be honest. The unluxury would be no health care, or travelling 100 miles within the UK by train/bus.

Having to wait 6 months for treatment isn’t luxury, what are you talking about. That’s effectively no health care.

Re: Why Britain doesn’t build

#96
post #31

Something cannot both be a good investment and accessible to all. The decision was made to make them a good investment, and thus our lazy, entitled economy that is addicted to foreign goods and services became what it is today.

> Something cannot both be a good investment and accessible to all. Roads are a perfect example of a good investment that is accessible to all. It's called a "common good", and it exists.

Who's out here speculating on roads?

Re: Why Britain doesn’t build

#97
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Appeal committees must be bought. Britain is the most corrupt country not in Europe.. Local authorities refusing planning isn't corruption. And if you think Britain is corrupt I assume you have no familiarity with other countries.

Local authorities refusing planning, then granting it when you write a cheque for 10k for the planning officer is corruption. It wasnt a cheque, but a pair of first class tickets to the bahamas for the planning officer and their wife, totally worth it thought. Its not even an open secret, its a known fact. https://www.theplanner.co.uk/2020/08/03/local-authorities-ar...

> councils should ensure all meetings between councillors, developers and their agents in major planning decisions are attended by at least one council official

Unfortunately many councils (including my own) are now run by an executive consisting of officials. People have known for decades that the planning committee is crooked; but I guess that's what you get in a university town where the uni owns most of the best land in the town, is the largest employer, and even used to have it's own parliamentary seat.

Re: Why Britain doesn’t build

#98
post #26

This is an interesting political trap for the ruling Conservatives that they have made for themselves. The traditional Conservative voter is a home-owner. So you might be a rabid socialist in your youth, but once you get a job, save up for a deposit, and buy your own home, you eventually transition to become yet another middle-aged Tory voter. That pipeline is now broken - young people are unable to save up for their…

The British Army were fought to a standstill by communist rebels in Malaya. The war only turned when the puppet government was persuaded to give the peasants land and homes.

Re: Why Britain doesn’t build

#99

One word - corruption. Britain builds plenty but not on a social basis. Profit is king. To get planning permission costs money. Appeal committees must be bought. Britain is the most corrupt country not in Europe..

> Appeal committees must be bought. Britain is the most corrupt country not in Europe.. Local authorities refusing planning isn't corruption. And if you think Britain is corrupt I assume you have no familiarity with other countries.

Indeed. It works like this: Planning is submitted and refused. Planning then goes to appeal. The appeal happens in another city with another committee. Members on that committee are paid to make the 'correct' decision and planning is granted. That is how city councils work. Nothing happens without someone being paid. From top to bottom. If you have the right connections and are happy to pay the job gets done.

I am very familiar with other countries. Britain is up there with the worst. Why do you think nothing works? By chance? Incompetence?

Re: Why Britain doesn’t build

#100
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Appeal committees must be bought. Britain is the most corrupt country not in Europe.. Local authorities refusing planning isn't corruption. And if you think Britain is corrupt I assume you have no familiarity with other countries.

Local authorities refusing planning, then granting it when you write a cheque for 10k for the planning officer is corruption. It wasnt a cheque, but a pair of first class tickets to the bahamas for the planning officer and their wife, totally worth it thought. Its not even an open secret, its a known fact. https://www.theplanner.co.uk/2020/08/03/local-authorities-ar...

It is even worse than that. You just pay the correct people cash.
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