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Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

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Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#91

Post by bemusedthrow75 »

Timon3 wrote: post #75
bemusedthrow75 wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Prighozin is as insane as the idiots who thought they could interfere with the count, and I have no idea if he's seriously considering taking out Putin. But let's be clear, the crowd breaking into the Capitol wasn't the entirety of the coup attempt, and even to write that part down as just a disorganised mob is incorrect. What was going on is better understood as an autogolpe -- a self-coup. It had several pr…

This always being left out by those decrying the classification as a coup attempt is a tacit admission of the whole scheme actually being a coup. Only by leaving it out they can make it seem like it was anything less.

Right. And I think it's often misunderstood that these parts don't actually need to have been under strict, detailed co-ordination to work, because the whole thing just needs to be set in motion when you have teams of people who can react on the ground.

But some people had advance plans to create pressure in the knowledge that it might lead to disorder, and then exploit the uncertainty in the moment. It could really all have happened, and it hinges on small moments of bravery that are well documented now but that many of those involved seem hesitant to admit to in public, which shows you that the landscape of threat still exists.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#92

Post by WeylandYutani »

brutusborn wrote: post #53

Does anyone have sources for this stuff? I am seeing a lot of conjecture and not a lot of substance. Is this whole thing based on a couple telegram videos? Is there anything to suggest they aren’t just propaganda deepfakes?

Funny thing is that there were Western journalists in Beijing 1989. The CCP never arrested a non Chinese journalist.

Putin doesn't care about diplomatic relations and almost every reputable media has fled the country.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#93

Post by topspin »

tibbydudeza wrote: post #19

They are in Voronezh now on their way to capture local airfield - regular Russian units backfilled with conscripts (the good ones were all decimated in Ukraine) won't take on Wagner troops on the ground. Air power will be the key.

Multiple videos from apartment dwellers in Voronezh of a KH-52 destroying a tank farm. Either Wagner was fueling up there or the Russian military is trying to deny fuel to Wagner, or both.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#94

Post by mtlmtlmtlmtl »

ilyt wrote: post #21
rixrax wrote: post #4

Will current regime resort to use of nuclear weapons against Wagner formations as they approach Moscow? After all, the state and the power regime are facing an existential risk.

While russia nuking themselves would be hilarious end of the current clown fiesta, I don't think they are that stupid, there is no way to explain that to public in favourable way to whichever side is left standing

I'm quite disturbed that you think a nuclear genocide on the Russian people would be "hilarious". It would be a humanitarian disaster and an almost unprecedented tragedy.

Let's not participate in the vilification of the Russian people.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#95

Post by Lewton »

@dang anything mentioning Wagner group is being flagged off the main page, I could see why some people would react that way when there’s a 20 articles shared about the same thing in an hour, but it’s a bit disturbing that there’s currently zero articles on the front page about this

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#96

Post by hutzlibu »

krona wrote: post #43
logicchains wrote: post #2

I wonder why they added quotation marks around "coup" in the headline? Is there anything nonstandardly-coupish about a military commander engaging in armed rebellion to overthrow the standing government? Seems to perfectly fit the textbook/dictionary definition of "coup".

Because its a staged rebellion to end the war while saving the face of the current leadership, and hopefully avoid civil war.

How are they saving face?

Internal power struggles are a sign of weakness. Putin does not like to appear weak.

Now while it certainly has staged elements, the power struggle between Wagner and the regular army is very real.

But the outcome hopefully will actually lead to ending the war (blaming it on the Wagner traitors). Or worst case, all out nuclear war.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#97

Post by watwut »

mtlmtlmtlmtl wrote: post #94
ilyt wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While russia nuking themselves would be hilarious end of the current clown fiesta, I don't think they are that stupid, there is no way to explain that to public in favourable way to whichever side is left standing

I'm quite disturbed that you think a nuclear genocide on the Russian people would be "hilarious". It would be a humanitarian disaster and an almost unprecedented tragedy. Let's not participate in the vilification of the Russian people.

Russia nuking themselves does not imply that tho. It would be same humanitarian catastrophe as Russia nuking Ukraine, Russia blowing up that nuclear plant in Ukraine they are currently likely planning to blow, Russia blowing up the damm.

Meaning, it would be exactly the same humanitarian disaster as Russia is comiting elsewhere right now. Only difference is that a.) nationality of innocent victims b.) event that harms Russia itself as opposed event that harms countries around Russia.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#99

Post by JumpCrisscross »

brutusborn wrote: post #53

Does anyone have sources for this stuff? I am seeing a lot of conjecture and not a lot of substance. Is this whole thing based on a couple telegram videos? Is there anything to suggest they aren’t just propaganda deepfakes?

Phillips O’Brien has been writing presciently [1].

[1] https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#100

Post by TeMPOraL »

bemusedthrow75 wrote: post #91
Timon3 wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This always being left out by those decrying the classification as a coup attempt is a tacit admission of the whole scheme actually being a coup. Only by leaving it out they can make it seem like it was anything less.

Right. And I think it's often misunderstood that these parts don't actually need to have been under strict, detailed co-ordination to work, because the whole thing just needs to be set in motion when you have teams of people who can react on the ground. But some people had advance plans to create pressure in the knowledge that it might lead to disorder, and then exploit the uncertainty in the moment. It could really…

So in short, you're saying that a stochastic coup is a thing, and the Capitol case was an example of one?
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