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U.S. home prices are the most unaffordable they've been in nearly 100 years

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Re: U.S. home prices are the most unaffordable they've been in nearly 100 years

#91

Post by crooked-v »

ActorNightly wrote: post #88
Beaver117 wrote: post #32

It's all just a game looking at the charts until the real estate "investment" companies are invaded by thousands of homeless people and the CEOs executed. Are people just supposed to not live anywhere? How long will this last? Just learn from history.

Don't fall for the socialism anti-landlord brainrot. People have plenty of places to live. This is more about the fact that people want to have the same financial opportunity to own a house. It sucks that the older generation had an opportunity to buy a house that has risen in value, with an area that got gentrified with more stuff around them, and were able to refinance during Covid at like 2-3%, while the younger g…

> People have plenty of places to live.

Actually, there is a 6.5 million home shortage in the places that people actually live (https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/08/homes/housing-shortage/index....).

That shortage has nothing to do with landlords, though, and everything to do with shitty zoning and with constructing new homes being incredibly slow and burdensome in most big US cities.

Re: U.S. home prices are the most unaffordable they've been in nearly 100 years

#93

Post by blurbleblurble »

superkuh wrote: post #10

From 1950 to 2008 the USA built ~25 million homes per (edit, not year) decade. From 2008 to 2018 it was about 7 million. In recent years building rates have mostly recovered but there's still that gap in production combined with everything else the last handful of years. This isn't to discount the shift of ownership from human persons to corporate persons, that's a factor too. But just numbers of available houses ver…

There are ~30 vacant homes per homeless person in the US.

Tell me how that makes any sense.

Re: U.S. home prices are the most unaffordable they've been in nearly 100 years

#95

Post by notch898a »

godzillabrennus wrote: post #59
crooked-v wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, of course, one should keep in mind demographic shifts. There are many small towns (and even some city suburbs) with cheap empty houses that many people would never willingly occupy because there are no jobs there.

Also areas like East Cleveland that have a notorious reputation. Even if in that particular case the city was built by John D. Rockefeller, he is even buried there.

Ah yes, East Cleveland. One night I was biking home, one of the locals took note of my weakened position with a flat tire and that my skin color denoted I was not from the neighborhood, and they put a gun to my head. If you buy there, I recommend availing yourself of Ohio's constitutional carry provisions.

Re: U.S. home prices are the most unaffordable they've been in nearly 100 years

#96

Post by almost_usual »

blurbleblurble wrote: post #93
superkuh wrote: post #10

From 1950 to 2008 the USA built ~25 million homes per (edit, not year) decade. From 2008 to 2018 it was about 7 million. In recent years building rates have mostly recovered but there's still that gap in production combined with everything else the last handful of years. This isn't to discount the shift of ownership from human persons to corporate persons, that's a factor too. But just numbers of available houses ver…

There are ~30 vacant homes per homeless person in the US. Tell me how that makes any sense.

People would rather be homeless in a temperate climate than live in a dilapidated building in the rust belt?

Re: U.S. home prices are the most unaffordable they've been in nearly 100 years

#97

Post by htag »

hayst4ck wrote: post #81
superkuh wrote: post #10

From 1950 to 2008 the USA built ~25 million homes per (edit, not year) decade. From 2008 to 2018 it was about 7 million. In recent years building rates have mostly recovered but there's still that gap in production combined with everything else the last handful of years. This isn't to discount the shift of ownership from human persons to corporate persons, that's a factor too. But just numbers of available houses ver…

If home prices are going up, that means that demand exceeds supply. If home prices are going up everywhere that means demand is exceeding supply everywhere. If homes are a good monetary investment, that means home prices are going up, which means supply is not keeping pace with demand. If home prices are going up at a rate faster than wages, then they are becoming more expensive for our children. Not in a round-a-bou…

> If homes are to be affordable that means more need to be built.

Try pricing what it would take to buy a plot of land and build a home on it. In some places there are very expensive local regulations that must be satisfied. However, just the base value of some land with utility access, physical materials, and labor to assemble the home is "unaffordable." If the difference between the cost to produce a home and the sale value of the home was larger than there would be more home builders. If reducing the cost of housing is important to you than you should focus on ways to reduce the cost of producing homes.

Re: U.S. home prices are the most unaffordable they've been in nearly 100 years

#98

Post by testrtt3222 »

echelon wrote: post #35
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #30

This article is missing perhaps the most important graph, which is median income to some common monthly payment metric (e.g. average monthly payment for a 30 year mortgage with 20% down). Reason being that the article mentions interest rates, but then just shows graphs comparing to sales price. Ironically, showing a metric that took interest rates into consideration would probably highlight why the current situation…

> Owners won't sell at a loss if they don't have to Supply and demand. If supply drops and demand doesn't... That's what /r/REBubble refuses to acknowledge. Nobody's giving up their 2% if they don't have to.

People do eventually sell due to life events, even at a loss, in fact I'd say that is probably the primary cause of sales rather than anything financial in nature. At least anecdotally, I've sold twice and both times I would have had to do it even if it was at a loss.

However, you are correct that the price is pretty sticky at the moment.

Re: U.S. home prices are the most unaffordable they've been in nearly 100 years

#99

Post by whitemary »

ActorNightly wrote: post #88
Beaver117 wrote: post #32

It's all just a game looking at the charts until the real estate "investment" companies are invaded by thousands of homeless people and the CEOs executed. Are people just supposed to not live anywhere? How long will this last? Just learn from history.

Don't fall for the socialism anti-landlord brainrot. People have plenty of places to live. This is more about the fact that people want to have the same financial opportunity to own a house. It sucks that the older generation had an opportunity to buy a house that has risen in value, with an area that got gentrified with more stuff around them, and were able to refinance during Covid at like 2-3%, while the younger g…

> Don't fall for the socialism anti-landlord brainrot

You mean the economic principle of supply and demand?

Re: U.S. home prices are the most unaffordable they've been in nearly 100 years

#100

Post by anovikov »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #30

This article is missing perhaps the most important graph, which is median income to some common monthly payment metric (e.g. average monthly payment for a 30 year mortgage with 20% down). Reason being that the article mentions interest rates, but then just shows graphs comparing to sales price. Ironically, showing a metric that took interest rates into consideration would probably highlight why the current situation…

I think these days, proportion of cash buyers in the last several years was highest in history - inequality did it's job and most people who can afford buying a house, can afford buying it on cash. And before, prices were much lower so most certainly won't fall down back again, forcing banks to invoke foreclosures. So i don't even think rising rates or falling prices may cause a snowballing collapse like they did in 2008. It's permanent - inequality and urban concentration locked next generations out of affordable housing and there's likely nothing that can be done about it.

But in Europe, we lived like that for at least two generations now. This is what a stable state, fully urbanised society looks like. Here, it's typical for someone with a mid-level management position in a bank or an IT company, with million dollar net worth and managing dozens of employees, ride a train to job an hour each day, because they can't afford to rent in the city. And people who live in the city are simply those who's families bought pre-WWI. Or those with a regulated rent contract passed down generations from the 1950s, being an overwhelming portion of the family's effective net worth.

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