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UK: Food inflation rises to 18.2% as it hits highest rate in over 45 years

grocerygazette.co.uk

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Re: UK: Food inflation rises to 18.2% as it hits highest rate in over 45 years

#91
post #4

A lot of the inflation on food is increasingly feeling like businesses cashing in. For instance my old go to brand of breed increased by over 50% months ago.

The ECB releases key statistics on inflation regularly: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2023/html/ecb.sp230...

Scroll to page 9 for a good graph on how this works. Unit profits are massively up, unit labour costs stagnant.

Re: UK: Food inflation rises to 18.2% as it hits highest rate in over 45 years

#92
post #35

Demand for food is inelastic, so it makes sense that companies are raising prices as high as possible since people still have to eat. Generally this leads to price competition from other food brands, but when single companies own dozens/hundreds of food brands it’s easy to act like a cartel and keep prices high.

If wholesale food costs have gone up and they're simply passing that on then they may not be making any more money.

Here's wholesale food prices in the US: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU578101

In fact you'd expect reduced sales from the higher prices to put pressure on profits. That is what seems to be happening in the UK:

https://www.grocerygazette.co.uk/2023/01/31/food-companies-p...

But not in the US, where it does look like there may be some gouging going on, but we'd need to see their profit reporting to be sure:

https://accountable.us/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/2023-02-10...

Re: UK: Food inflation rises to 18.2% as it hits highest rate in over 45 years

#93

> This saw select fruit and vegetables rationed in UK supermarkets, due to shortages caused by bad weather conditions in the South of Europe and Northern Africa and many growers having to cut back due to rising costs of heating greenhouses. Besides the obvious degradation of the energy and fertilizer markets from the war in Ukraine, the collapsed Pound is probably the biggest factor here.

Not really, the biggest factor is how supermarkets source their produce in the UK.

From other countries, requiring the pound not collapsing to get a good price?

Re: UK: Food inflation rises to 18.2% as it hits highest rate in over 45 years

#94
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Brexit plus war.

Brexit plus sanctions. War has nothing to do with that, at least not war in a classical sense. Economic or total war that some countries are involved in can be considered as a major reason.

Very high costs of energy have been caused by the war. Food production can be very energy intensive.

Re: UK: Food inflation rises to 18.2% as it hits highest rate in over 45 years

#96
post #4

A lot of the inflation on food is increasingly feeling like businesses cashing in. For instance my old go to brand of breed increased by over 50% months ago.

For some reason they didn't want to cash in before?

Mass inflation is a convenient excuse for profiteering. Similar shit happened in Germany with the DM => EUR switchover, yielding the nickname "Teuro" ("expensive euro").

The core problem is that Western countries have collectively decided to dial back anti-trust enforcement that could have stepped in.

Re: UK: Food inflation rises to 18.2% as it hits highest rate in over 45 years

#97

> This saw select fruit and vegetables rationed in UK supermarkets, due to shortages caused by bad weather conditions in the South of Europe and Northern Africa and many growers having to cut back due to rising costs of heating greenhouses. Besides the obvious degradation of the energy and fertilizer markets from the war in Ukraine, the collapsed Pound is probably the biggest factor here.

Not really, the biggest factor is how supermarkets source their produce in the UK.

Uh, how does one source produce except through imports? A weak Pound will make it more expensive.

Even for things that can be domestically produced, like greenhouse tomatoes, they will still be more expensive even if they are now competitive with imports. And for items like rice and couscous you're not really going to be able to domestically produce them anyway.

Re: UK: Food inflation rises to 18.2% as it hits highest rate in over 45 years

#98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They didn't have the pricing power/their customers didn't have the tolerance for rising prices/coordinated action and corporate consolidation means prices are going up and it doesn't matter what your choices are. Circumstances materially changed over the last few years, and inflation is a great time for profit taking as we're seeing, which reinforces the inflation. In a competitive environment the excess profit-takin…

I don't think there was a magical point in consolidation that let them increase the price of eggs ad hoc. Or a magic 'greed' button that they refused to hit before now. Why not just make it $30 an egg? > They didn't have the pricing power/their customers didn't have the tolerance for rising prices/ Just for everyone's sanity, it's WAY easier to believe that there are underlying market conditions that should be addres…

> Or a magic 'greed' button that they refused to hit before now.

There's some empirical evidence from Australia that this is exactly what they did. Also an island nation that heavily imports food

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/24/an-economic...

Re: UK: Food inflation rises to 18.2% as it hits highest rate in over 45 years

#100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Brexit plus sanctions. War has nothing to do with that, at least not war in a classical sense. Economic or total war that some countries are involved in can be considered as a major reason.

My understanding is the Russia and Ukraine both contribute meaningful portions of the global food supply. Wouldn't destabilizing these two countries affect food prices globally?

Yes, this is well known and has been tracked in the finance and economic press. Just as an example, both grain production and transport (due to disturbances in rails and shipping) were both effected directly and indirectly which had significant impacts in Africa.
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