Rivian announces 1B gross loss and 600M revenue [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: Rivian announces 1B gross loss and 600M revenue [pdf]

#91

Post by cassac » Tue, Feb 28, 2023, 10:15 PM UTC

majormajor wrote: post #60

cassac wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought that until Tesla wrecked everyone.

Tesla was famously close to failing. So on one hand, post-Tesla, there's more public readiness for EVs. On the other hand, there's a huge established EV-native incumbent PLUS far more legacy brand competition in the market. So it's still a really risky playbook.

I agree it was risky, and close to failing, but that’s what usually happens with great things. I don’t think any other car company that makes electric cars would say they aren’t playing catch up with Tesla. They seem to perpetually be a few years behind.

I was just making my comment based on the parent comment saying it couldn’t be done. It’s done all the time in every segment.

Never underestimate the bean counters from ruining the incumbents.

Re: Rivian announces 1B gross loss and 600M revenue [pdf]

#92

Post by slaw » Tue, Feb 28, 2023, 10:16 PM UTC

majormajor wrote: post #65

mbgerring wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Rivian is a full-size truck and performs as good or better than the Lightning for similar tasks.

That bed length disadvantage is pretty significant if you're coming to it from the "truck user" market vs the "weekend camper" or "soccer mom" market. I was interested in a Rivian until I saw one in person and saw how short that bed was. It wasn't the first spec I'd looked at on paper, but jumped out in-person. In that size I'd probably go cheap with a Maverick hybrid for now until there are more full-EV competitors.

I wouldn't count on Maverick to be available. All 2023 Mavericks were ordered in September 2022. I'll probably wait until 2025 to get one.

Re: Rivian announces 1B gross loss and 600M revenue [pdf]

#93

Post by explaininjs » Tue, Feb 28, 2023, 10:17 PM UTC

tsudounym wrote: post #89

kelnos wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're not really responding to what the parent poster said. We're not talking about 30-lane highways, we're talking about a small one-lane road that only needs to serve tens of people per day. A train route for that is absurd.

Because of the space inefficiency of cars, you end up building and widening way too may roads, destroying the countryside. Trains allow you keep development contained without spoiling the countryside. Forgot where I saw this, but a Swiss women used to see lines of trucks in her village until the government heavily promoted electrified freight rail. Now there's little to no trucks in her village.

Basically anywhere in Europe (Switzerland especially) is incomparable to the "vast wilderness" I described above. I speak of roads where a "busy day" is more than (say) 3 light vehicles traveling.

Re: Rivian announces 1B gross loss and 600M revenue [pdf]

#94

Post by tsudounym » Tue, Feb 28, 2023, 10:17 PM UTC

kelnos wrote: post #75

tsudounym wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What a hilariously American comment. Nearly all American cities were built by train networks that existed in the 1800s. These train lines were ripped out to make way for car infrastructure in the mid-1900s, which was designed to segregate neighborhoods and give giant profits to GM. Even famously car-centric LA with their massive freeways once had the best public transit in the world. https://www.segregationbydesign.c…

I don't think we're talking solely about cities here; suburban and rural areas can never be sustainably and cost-effectively served by public transit, at least not the kind of areas with densities you'll find in the US. Certainly US cities are very weak on the public transit front, and there's a lot of improvement that can be made there. Even then, though, there are a lot of municipalities in the US that technically…

Switzerland has villages with only hundreds of people that regularly receive train service. There are states with similar GDP, size and density as Switzerland that do not have any train service.

Sprawling suburbs are a giant scam - the cost of providing urban amenities (power, internet, sewage) to these neighborhoods is much higher than it appears. The lines of pipes and power lines in sprawling burbs cost wayyyy more than it would to maintain a transit oriented development full of townhomes and condos.

Re: Rivian announces 1B gross loss and 600M revenue [pdf]

#95

Post by chickenpotpie » Tue, Feb 28, 2023, 10:18 PM UTC

basch wrote: post #29

mbgerring wrote: post #9

The financials may not look good right now, but the vehicles are extremely good. They’re already way out in front of the EV truck segment, and the big automakers have a huge gap to make up to reach the same level of quality. I wouldn’t be surprised if they manage to turn this around and become profitable.

You hear this all the time. There is no such thing as a huge lead in automaking. It’s an incredibly clonable product, and each company has huge teams taking apart each others products. It’s also not really the product that matters. It’s service centers, parts, repairs, manufacturing capacity. The traditional companies have entrenched supply chains to get parts, and cars, across the country and into hands. All the new…

I strongly disagree. Companies are having a very very hard time getting into the electric vehicle business. Toyota actively spent money trying to slow down the advancements in EVs to give themselves time to catch up (https://electrek.co/2021/09/22/toyota-facing-boycotts-over-f...). If only centers, parts, repairs, and manufacturing capacity matter, then Toyota should have nothing to fear. They have all of that in spades compared to rivian or Tesla.

Re: Rivian announces 1B gross loss and 600M revenue [pdf]

#96

Post by dbg31415 » Tue, Feb 28, 2023, 10:21 PM UTC

I think these look great, but I can't see them replacing combustion engines for all the things people who drive trucks in the country need.

Like... I'm not going to load this up with fence posts and go out for a 12 hour day... plugging in the fence post digger to the battery... I'd be afraid that since I can't just toss in an extra gas tank that I'd be walking home.

And I can't see this pulling a horse trailer across the Great Plains stopping every 300 miles to recharge for several hours. (But I know North Dakota did finally get a Tesla charging stating!) Just feels like it's not quite setup for "real" use.

I can totally see some suburban guy using this to go camping. But... even that, like I don't want to leave this parked at the trail head for a week, when I'm hiking. I bet the battery would hold a week, but like what if it didn't? I couldn't just bum a jump from another camper.

One of the joys to being out in nature, is being away from "it all" -- including being away from the population density required to make charging stations viable. I think that's always going to be a fundamental flaw with electric "adventure" vehicles.

Cool to look at. Promising tech. But EVs are still "toys" in my mind.

Re: Rivian announces 1B gross loss and 600M revenue [pdf]

#97

Post by cassac » Tue, Feb 28, 2023, 10:22 PM UTC

V__ wrote: post #86

cassac wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They may be over valued but everybody is absolutely playing catch-up and are quite a bit away from their profit margins. What’s even worse for the legacy companies is Tesla is the Kleenex/Coke of electric cars to a lot of young minds.

Tesla makes better software right now. But the profit-margins argument seems to be a misconception [1]. Until Tesla distances itself from Musk, I also don't think the brand will stay 'cool' for that long. [1] https://seekingalpha.com/article/4573601-tesla-gross-margins...

I don’t think those are fully like to like comparisons though. You have to run those numbers just for electric. Nobody I know would cross shop a Tesla and a Rav 4. They can have their margins on their ICE catalog but they don’t have it on their electric yet even with the dealer network numbers added in.

Re: Rivian announces 1B gross loss and 600M revenue [pdf]

#98

Post by majormajor » Tue, Feb 28, 2023, 10:22 PM UTC

slaw wrote: post #92

majormajor wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That bed length disadvantage is pretty significant if you're coming to it from the "truck user" market vs the "weekend camper" or "soccer mom" market. I was interested in a Rivian until I saw one in person and saw how short that bed was. It wasn't the first spec I'd looked at on paper, but jumped out in-person. In that size I'd probably go cheap with a Maverick hybrid for now until there are more full-EV competitors.

I wouldn't count on Maverick to be available. All 2023 Mavericks were ordered in September 2022. I'll probably wait until 2025 to get one.

I've seen some on dealer lots in the past month. YMMV on options/colors of course.

Re: Rivian announces 1B gross loss and 600M revenue [pdf]

#99

Post by aaomidi » Tue, Feb 28, 2023, 10:23 PM UTC

lockhouse wrote: post #68

hedora wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really like their cars, but they’re not practical replacements for a full size pickup truck (as the F-150 Lightning is). Anyway, they’re competing more with range rover and jeep than trucks, which is fine (and also a mostly-unaddressed segment).

Even the F-150 Lightning isn’t a good replacement for any pickup truck use cases that require towing or going far off the beaten path outside the reach of charging stations. There’s still no EV equivalent of just throwing a couple gas cans in the bed to extend the range. It’s good for typical suburban pickup truck uses though and could be a good farm truck since you could just charge it at home.

Electricity is everywhere. Like. Everywhere. It’s only a matter of time before the charging network expands.

Re: Rivian announces 1B gross loss and 600M revenue [pdf]

#100

Post by gwbas1c » Tue, Feb 28, 2023, 10:23 PM UTC

basch wrote: post #29

mbgerring wrote: post #9

The financials may not look good right now, but the vehicles are extremely good. They’re already way out in front of the EV truck segment, and the big automakers have a huge gap to make up to reach the same level of quality. I wouldn’t be surprised if they manage to turn this around and become profitable.

You hear this all the time. There is no such thing as a huge lead in automaking. It’s an incredibly clonable product, and each company has huge teams taking apart each others products. It’s also not really the product that matters. It’s service centers, parts, repairs, manufacturing capacity. The traditional companies have entrenched supply chains to get parts, and cars, across the country and into hands. All the new…

Think of it from the perspective of disruption. Large, incumbent businesses get disrupted all the time. A major indicator of a David beating a Goliath is when the rules of the business change.

And, with EVs, the rules of the business have changed, pretty much overnight.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator%27s_Dilemma

IMO: Rivian is ripe for a major investment from an outsider with a lot of cash, (like Amazon,) or for acquisition from a major automaker. An acquisition will only work if they are generally allowed to be independent and run with little interference. Given how direct sales without independent dealers are major part of the rule changes, it's very hard for Rivian to leverage an acquiring company's dealer network.