International Security and Estonia 2023 • Hacker News Board

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#91

Post by O__________O » Wed, Feb 08, 2023, 1:28 PM UTC

luckylion wrote: post #75

m2fkxy wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russian-speaking*. An interesting 2014 read on their inclusion re: national defence matters: https://icds.ee/wp-content/uploads/2014/Juhan_Kivirahk_-_Int...

They use the term ethnic Russian-speaking minorities , but from those minorities, it's ~89% Russians, ~8% Ukrainians and ~3% Belarusians. Not sure how much Pro-Russia sentiment there is among Ukrainians in Estonia but I'd be surprised if it's significant, so it's really "Russians" in 2023, even if it was broadly "Russian-speaking" in 2014.

At this point even having a Russian speaking population is potentially a liability regardless if they’re pro-Russian or not, since Russia will just spin whatever pro-Estonian or anti-Russian sentiment they say to be propaganda and Russia will just say they obviously need to be liberated so they’re able to express their support for Russia.

While only roughly 300,000 to 450,000 of 1.3 million of Estonians have ethnic ties to Russia, 73% are near Estonia’s border with Russia:

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/et-peop...

This YouTube provides an animated history of Estonian borders:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=HBA0xDHZjko

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#92

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Feb 08, 2023, 1:28 PM UTC

qaq wrote: post #80

I wonder why Russia gets a pass from the left and right on being pretty brutal colonial empire. Even in present day borders Russia is composed of literally hundreds of colonised nations that get exploited and brutalised for the benefit of Moscow.

[deleted]

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#93

Post by nibbleshifter » Wed, Feb 08, 2023, 1:29 PM UTC

balderdash wrote: post #77

usrnm wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Why would that entitle them to citizenship? Citizenship by birth is, while not uncommon, far from the norm (especially in Europe).

Usually after X years legal residency you can apply for citizenship in countries without birthright citizenship.

X being any random number chosen by rolling a D20, apparently, with case specific modifiers depending on job, language, parents, marriage, etc.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#94

Post by ChuckNorris89 » Wed, Feb 08, 2023, 1:29 PM UTC

coldtea wrote: post #89

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But was the referendum a fair and independent one, recognized and verified by the international community, or was it a sham referendum under threat of invasion, like the one in Austria for joining Nazi Germany, with a huge YES option in the middle, and a small NO option in the corner[1]? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_Austrian_Anschluss_refere...

> But was the referendum a fair and independent one, recognized and verified by the international community The same "international community" lead by a number of imperialist and colonialist countries still at the time maintaining protectorates and colonies all around the world whose local populations fought with huge toil for their independece? That would be like the pot recognizing and verifying the validity of the…

>The same "international community" lead by a number of imperialist and colonialist countries

OK, touché! True, most of Europe was a mess back then, with every country trying to establish an empire or defend itself from being invaded by one. There weren't many countries you could count on for an independent perspective. You had to be pro $SOME_EMPIRE and against $SOME_OTHER_EMPIRE. Unless you were Switzerland, there was no middle-ground option.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#95

Post by pfdietz » Wed, Feb 08, 2023, 1:29 PM UTC

consumer451 wrote: post #83

qaq wrote: post #80

I wonder why Russia gets a pass from the left and right on being pretty brutal colonial empire. Even in present day borders Russia is composed of literally hundreds of colonised nations that get exploited and brutalised for the benefit of Moscow.

> I wonder why Russia gets a pass from the left and right on being pretty brutal colonial empire. Can you give some examples of what you are talking about here, and in what countries?

The entire expansion of Russia eastward across Asia to the Pacific ocean?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_evolution_of_Russi...

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#96

Post by ceejayoz » Wed, Feb 08, 2023, 1:29 PM UTC

dmpk2k wrote: post #81

ceejayoz wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The first and most obvious is this... If Russia thinks a verbal assurance from the US SecState to a different country can bind NATO thirty years later as if it were a treaty, they're hopelessly naive. (They're not, of course. They know this is bullshit.)

It was many different leaders. I suggest you actually read the archive document(s). Yes, they're long. Regardless of whether you think the Russians were hopelessly naive or full of shit, it is a promise broken. Remember, we're talking about negotiations, so their opinion matters too, regardless what you or I think about it.

> It was many different leaders.

None of which are empowered to individually and formally bind NATO to anything, let alone privately and verbally, and each to the Soviet Union, which hasn't existed for thirty years. "We're not gonna fuck with you while you're collapsing" was entirely reasonable and intentionally deescalatory at the time; pretending it's somehow a promise not to do anything while Russia moves into Georgia and Ukraine is silly.

The Budapest Memorandum, meanwhile, is an actual signed agreement by Russia.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#97

Post by lebed2045 » Wed, Feb 08, 2023, 1:30 PM UTC

querez wrote: post #70

actionfromafar wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still, maybe Estonia should cook up a special solution now. I bet some residents who were on the fence before the recent aggression changed their minds now. I understand though it's a tricky real-politik situation. I'm lucky to not live in a country with a border to Russia.

No they shouldn't. Russia has played the "we must protect the Russian minority in that region" card before to justify military action. Its' the whole reason we have a war in Ukraine. Estonia must make ensure that no such pretense can exist in their country. Denying citizenship to people who don't denounce their Russian nationality and don't fully accept "becoming Estonian" is the right thing to do, IMO.

It’s just nonsense. If the agresor wants to invade the country- they do that regardless. Germany-Poland the obvious example. If anything, the discrimination of local russian minority makes look it extremely injusted and oppressive.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#98

Post by consumer451 » Wed, Feb 08, 2023, 1:30 PM UTC

pfdietz wrote: post #95

consumer451 wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I wonder why Russia gets a pass from the left and right on being pretty brutal colonial empire. Can you give some examples of what you are talking about here, and in what countries?

The entire expansion of Russia eastward across Asia to the Pacific ocean? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_evolution_of_Russi...

I am well aware of Russian Imperialism.

Are you talking about the left and the right in the USA?

Who aside from modern US Republicans is giving them a pass?

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#99

Post by zmgsabst » Wed, Feb 08, 2023, 1:30 PM UTC

asimpletune wrote: post #17

paganel wrote: post #5

[flagged]

The thing is that nonetheless every war ever has ended as part of a diplomatic process. When this doesn’t happen you have something like the Korean War, which is technically still going on. Also it’s bonkers that someone thinks Ukraine is untrustworthy this situation. Didn’t they give up all their nuclear weapons in a signed treaty under the guarantee that Russia promised to respect their territorial integrity? Doesn…

[flagged]

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#100

Post by yourapostasy » Wed, Feb 08, 2023, 1:31 PM UTC

another2another wrote: post #14

paganel wrote: post #5

[flagged]

>Russia seems to believe it can “bomb” Ukraine to the negotiating table. I doubt Russia wants any such thing, they just want their toy back in their pram and the good feeling that having Ukraine under their heel gave them, as well as any useful resources Ukraine might have - agricultural land, seaports, raw materials. Stuff like that. They don't want to negotiate with anybody, they just want their stuff (back?) on th…

> ...but lots of 60+ yr old Russians are living in a past they'll never get back to and are blithely ruining Russia's future to get there.

That sounds like a Russian Federatiom Boomer generation dragging the rest of the nation down with it to rack and ruin for a nostalgic kick. For those on the ground in the Russian Federation or corresponding closely with those on the ground, is support for the war really mostly stemming from that generation and do they possess the kind of sociopolitical leverage as Boomers in the US?

It sounds overly simplistic to me to say, "lots of 60+ yr old Russians" are driving the support for the war. I'd be more inclined to subscribe to a description of an elite that control the levers of power and the economy are the drivers, and the general population like in too many nation-states (even the US, since objectively most legislation is passed by and for the elite) is more or less powerless.